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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards


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My contribution to this evening.

What a fantastic night we had in central southern England, and many other places too! I've never seen storms of that intensity or frequency in April before! Anyway I thought I would share so

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Looks like a lot of people had a good night with the storms in the channel. Nothing here, but lets hope for another good storm or two before the seasons out.

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5 hours ago, LightningLover said:

I don't even think the lightning was forecast to be this prolific. Surely ConvectiveWeather would have issued a MDT? (rather than the slight)

 

It was mainly the lack of confidence in how widespread lightning would be that prevented any upgrades to MDT. For the UK, it was quite a narrow corridor of lightning and makes it hard to be that specific...

lightningverif.png

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Nothing here last night, but wasn't really expecting all that much. Surprised to wake up and see that it was dry outside, but it's possible that any rain we did get in the early hours (not sure if we did!) dried up quickly. 

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 15 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 16 Aug 2017

ISSUED 08:12 UTC Tue 15 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough migrating eastwards with some marginal instability given cool air aloft will generate a few well-scattered showers, most widespread across northern Britain and generally quite isolated farther south given notably dry profiles. A brief funnel or weak tornado may be possible where cells interact with low-level convergence. Some hail will be possible, particularly in Scotland.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-15

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40 minutes ago, Jcweather said:

Nothing here last night, but wasn't really expecting all that much. Surprised to wake up and see that it was dry outside, but it's possible that any rain we did get in the early hours (not sure if we did!) dried up quickly. 

Absolutely hammered it down over in canvey, absolutely torrential, from about 3:30 - 5 am, I looked to my south towards Kent and the sky was lightning up, and I could see all the cloud features, no thunder though, must have been fairly elevated to see this .

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Don't think it rained at all here last night, was expecting heavy rain, but not thunder, didn't get that either! Nearest thunder/lightning was out to sea/East Sussex. Oh well!

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 16 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 17 Aug 2017

ISSUED 23:12 UTC Tue 15 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridging will be in place across many parts of the British Isles at the start of Wednesday, but an approaching frontal system associated with a plume of relatively high WBPT airmass will move eastwards, engaged by a couple of shortwaves rotating around the main upper trough.

As a result, there will be potential for some instability release embedded within showery outbreaks of rain, with two main zones of interest; one beginning over SW England and Celtic Sea mid-late afternoon/early evening and then migrating NE-wards across England and Wales during the evening/night hours - confidence is quite low at the moment as to how deep embedded convection will be, and hence how widespread (if any) lightning activity will be. For now, we refrain from upgrading to a SLGT.
 
Better agreement exists for some deep convection to develop during the afternoon and evening hours (presumably along the cold front), over parts of Republic of Ireland / Northern Ireland then propagating NE-wards towards W/SW Scotland. This activity should benefit from some reasonable DLS; in fact a low-topped supercell cannot be ruled out which may produce an isolated tornado - this more likely over Republic of Ireland / Northern Ireland.
 
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