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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards


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A new month, a shiny new thread and hopefully new opportunities for seeing some storms.

For those that want to catch up on recent posts then the old thread is here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/87949-convectivestorm-discussion-thread-8th-july-onwards/?page=130

I know quite a few of us are still yet to see a storm this year and are probably feeling like having a rant about it. If that is the case then you can rant all you want in our club for the storm deprived:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/87438-no-storms-club-2017-season/?page=5

For the foreseeable there are no big storm events on the horizon but plenty of thundery shower type scenarios here in the UK. This is not the case across Europe with a level 3 from Estofex today across parts of N and NE Europe. Please try to keep talk of European storm wealth to the relevant thread here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/83731-european-storm-convective-discussion/?page=16

Another month left of meteorological summer and just under half of our "traditional" storm season still remaining and so there are still plenty more opportunities. Today itself is offering the chance of some heavy showers and thunderstorms. It appears the greatest risk of seeing a thunderstorm will be further north and east today with an unstable SW'ly flow promoting widespread shower development in response to only a little day time heating. Already there are heavy showers across NW England, Wales and C+S parts of Scotland. I think the focus today may be in an area east of the Pennines and north of the Humber (so East Ridings into NE England may be a good bet). I am off work today and so may decide to take a drive north towards East Yorkshire. Whether you see a storm or not, I expect there to be some impressive convection from quite early on today.

On to the forecasting agencies then. Estofex have the northern half of the UK under the 50% lightning risk.

Estofex.thumb.png.da9a201ec27c0bb99c772217645790f6.png

As to be expected the attention in the forecast text is focused over the impending storm fest over Central and Northern Europe. If you want to read the text then it can be found on the web address below:

www.estofex.org/

Convective Weather has a slight risk of storms across eastern England and then Nothern Ireland, Southern and Eastern Scotland. Maybe Lincolnshire again this afternoon?

largethumb.thumb.png.8599f53fd9fae959f6d8dfda22de7391.png

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 01 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 02 Aug 2017

ISSUED 23:45 UTC Mon 31 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

With the upper trough axis pivoting eastwards on Tuesday, deep instability will become more widespread compared with Monday, shifting from west to east through the day. Various shortwaves combined with low-level wind convergence will provide the focus for bands of showers / thunderstorms to run generally E or NE-wards, capable of gusty winds and hail to 2.0cm in diameter. Slow storm motion in northern Scotland increases the risk of some localised surface water flooding - another day here of funnel clouds / tornado / waterspout potential too.

Ridging approaching from the west will suppress convection in western areas during the afternoon, with the main focus then shifting to the North Sea through the evening - here there could be quite a bit of lightning activity on Tuesday night.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-01

Edited by Supacell
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My contribution to this evening.

What a fantastic night we had in central southern England, and many other places too! I've never seen storms of that intensity or frequency in April before! Anyway I thought I would share so

Posted Images

Convective weather were pretty much bang on yesterday with areas in the slight category recieving some good action. I see there is again a tornado risk :shok:. Good luck to all today.

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4 hours ago, Supacell said:

A new month, a shiny new thread and hopefully new opportunities for seeing some storms.

For those that want to catch up on recent posts then the old thread is here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/87949-convectivestorm-discussion-thread-8th-july-onwards/?page=130

I know quite a few of us are still yet to see a storm this year and are probably feeling like having a rant about it. If that is the case then you can rant all you want in our club for the storm deprived:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/87438-no-storms-club-2017-season/?page=5

For the foreseeable there are no big storm events on the horizon but plenty of thundery shower type scenarios here in the UK. This is not the case across Europe with a level 3 from Estofex today across parts of N and NE Europe. Please try to keep talk of European storm wealth to the relevant thread here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/83731-european-storm-convective-discussion/?page=16

Another month left of meteorological summer and just under half of our "traditional" storm season still remaining and so there are still plenty more opportunities. Today itself is offering the chance of some heavy showers and thunderstorms. It appears the greatest risk of seeing a thunderstorm will be further north and east today with an unstable SW'ly flow promoting widespread shower development in response to only a little day time heating. Already there are heavy showers across NW England, Wales and C+S parts of Scotland. I think the focus today may be in an area east of the Pennines and north of the Humber (so East Ridings into NE England may be a good bet). I am off work today and so may decide to take a drive north towards East Yorkshire. Whether you see a storm or not, I expect there to be some impressive convection from quite early on today.

 

Quite hopeful for here today, although I won't be at home as I'm working outside in areas surrounding York.

Will have IP camera recording at home and phone handy at work incase I see anything, good luck gang!

Edited by vizzy2004
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5 hours ago, Supacell said:

I think the focus today may be in an area east of the Pennines and north of the Humber (so East Ridings into NE England may be a good bet). I am off work today and so may decide to take a drive north towards East Yorkshire. Whether you see a storm or not, I expect there to be some impressive convection from quite early on today.

I'm NE of York in the Howardian Hills, looking out SSW over the Vale of York, so will be keeping an eye on developments throughout the day. Looking at the radar the main activity seems to be NW of here at Thirsk.

Edited by Tony M
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Can see a developing line of cb's to my north west trying to go up, but it looks like theres a cap in place. I'm not in the most favourable spot today (although still in the risk zone) so I'm not expecting much, although I see on radar the slight risk zones on convective weather already firing up. Looks like they got it bang on again two days in a row. :)

Edited by Windblade
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