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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Storm & Convective Forecast

stormmap_100418.thumb.png.d8ad5b2d70323b6d28feff3232459a03.png

Issued 2018-04-10 08:00:00
Valid: 10/04/2018 6AM - 11/04/2018 6AM

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - TUESDAY 10TH APRIL 2018

Synopsis

Upper and collocated surface low over the Bay of Biscay will drfit SE into Spain on Tuesday, to the northeast, a frontal system bringing rain to central and northern areas this morning will drift W, allowing clear skies with some warm sunshine to develop across southern counties of England, which will trigger heavy showers with thunder. Further rain, perhaps thundery, over the Low Countries looks to affect far SE and East Anglia overnight.

... THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ...

* Risk of localised flooding and hail

... S ENGLAND and CHANNEL ISLANDS ...

Models and satellite imagery indicate clearer skies over near continent moving NW into southern counties of England through the morning. sunny spells developing here will warm a moist airmass, which combined with local breeze convergence, will likely trigger local heavy showers, with some moving over from France too. Showers may be accompanied with isolated thunder, hail and locally heavy rain that may lead to localised flooding on already saturated ground.

... KENT and E ANGLIA TONIGHT ...

Instability / diurnal surface heating over Low Countries and Germany will support scattered thunderstorms through the day here, which models merge into an area of heavy and thundery rain pushing west towards Kent and E Anglia this evening and overnight with a developing frontal system / surface low. As thunderstorms over near continent will be supported by diurnal instability, lightning activity is likely to become minimal but not ruled out as this area of heavy showery rain with convective elements moves across to eastern England overnight.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

The sun came out and pushed temperatures up. It feels quite thundery now - dark & menacing to my east.

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Indeed, Sat24 showing some breaks in the cold coming from the SE.

Should expect main bulk of the showers to form in the next hour before intensifying and moving westwards.

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent

Nice large cell leaving northeast france heading northwest - right towards me. I wonder if it will go bang as it crosses the channel?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

The lack of activity surprises me again. Has anyone else noticed a theme occurring? There's been half a dozen days so far, that have shown convective promise, and it has failed to materialise. I hope this isn't going to be a trend as we move to the Summer.

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Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes

Don't think been complete bust Mapantz here we did get hail storm last Tuesday I think it was I read also hit Sheffield also got it.  I don't know if Lincolnshire still got chance of early morning activity from Netherlands, Belgium storms drifting in still.

Edited by vladthemert
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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
24 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The lack of activity surprises me again. Has anyone else noticed a theme occurring? There's been half a dozen days so far, that have shown convective promise, and it has failed to materialise. I hope this isn't going to be a trend as we move to the Summer.

That's probably due to a much cooler than average English channel plus the continent has only just warmed up after severel severely cold weeks but things should be back to normal by summer..:)

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
29 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The lack of activity surprises me again. Has anyone else noticed a theme occurring? There's been half a dozen days so far, that have shown convective promise, and it has failed to materialise. I hope this isn't going to be a trend as we move to the Summer.

Take a read this is just for fun but my interpretation of what's likely.

DURING TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PUSHES THROUGH THE WARNING AREA WITH LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO LOCALISED FLOODING.. MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
5 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

That's probably due to a much cooler than average English channel plus the continent has only just warmed up after severel severely cold weeks but things should be back to normal by summer..:)

We're not in a plume set-up, so the temperature of the English channel is irrelevant to be fair.

3 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Sorry, I don't click unknown sourced links.

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

We're not in a plume set-up, so the temperature of the English channel is irrelevant to be fair.

Sorry, I don't click unknown sourced links.

I'm talking more about the fact they are dying as they cross the channel and that's okay you don't have to click on that link I sent that thinking it would clearly show up straight away

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Radar shows heavy rain over me near Ashord in Kent, where I'm staying tonight, but it's dry or very light, must be evaporating!

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
52 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The lack of activity surprises me again. Has anyone else noticed a theme occurring? There's been half a dozen days so far, that have shown convective promise, and it has failed to materialise. I hope this isn't going to be a trend as we move to the Summer.

I think it would help if the rest of the country had some warm weather. Here in the Midlands over the past week, all we’ve had is grey skies and drizzle, feeling cool. So certainly not feeling convective in this part of the country. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Radar shows heavy rain over me near Ashord in Kent, where I'm staying tonight, but it's dry or very light, must be evaporating!

Hey Nick, have you seen whats lurking over extreme W Germany/Belgium? if so, what are your thoughts on it?

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

Hey Nick, have you seen whats lurking over extreme W Germany/Belgium? if so, what are your thoughts on it?

I know I'm not Nick but I think they will move west northwestwards though the south MIDLANDS and southern parts pushing towards south Wales by Dawn...

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

I would think the north sea will kill them off but we will see.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
26 minutes ago, vladthemert said:

Belgium storms drifting in still.

That's not forecast to be any more than dynamic rainfall, which will move parallel with the M4. That's  what the MetO have forecast, anyway.

Today's  forecasts were more for home-grown action. It's not the forecasts i'm calling a bust on, it's the atmosphere. There's been some great charts for several events already this year - pretty tasty parameters. They have just failed to initialise! I've been looking back at all convective forecasts, and then looking at the lightning/radar archive, and it just doesn't seem to add up?! Either the charts are overdoing parameters, or something else is at play. My eyes are firmly peeled when charts are showing anything convective,have been for many years now. This is why i'm a little lost as to why so many early events have failed to happen.

I agreed with the MetOffice warning for this afternoon/evening - charts showed real promise. However, even the MetO have fallen foul of the atmosphere's fickle nature today - another reason that makes me wonder what is going on.

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

That's not forecast to be any more than dynamic rainfall, which will move parallel with the M4. That's  what the MetO have forecast, anyway.

Today's  forecasts were more for home-grown action. It's not the forecasts i'm calling a bust on, it's the atmosphere. There's been some great charts for several events already this year - pretty tasty parameters. They have just failed to initialise! I've been looking back at all convective forecasts, and then looking at the lightning/radar archive, and it just doesn't seem to add up?! Either the charts are overdoing parameters, or something else is at play. My eyes are firmly peeled when charts are showing anything convective,have been for many years now. This is why i'm a little lost as to why so many early events have failed to happen.

I agreed with the MetOffice warning for this afternoon/evening - charts showed real promise. However, even the MetO have fallen foul of the atmosphere's fickle nature today - another reason that makes me wonder what is going on.

there is a really torrential downpour going on in the southwest right now.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
4 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Hey Nick, have you seen whats lurking over extreme W Germany/Belgium? if so, what are your thoughts on it?

Hi, yes, a lot of lightning activity over southern Holland and far west of Germany atm, ECWMF, ARPEGE, HIRLAM take an area of heavy thundery west across SE England/London/ southern E Anglia then M4 corridor and parts of S Midlands tonight and Wednesday morning. Whether there will be any lightning in it by the time it's crossed the sea from Belgium is anyone's guess though.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Holland is exploding into life now,i wonder what may become once it reaches the sea.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Holland is exploding into life now,i wonder what may become once it reaches the sea.

I know! it was so sudden too. IMO this is the first real storm watch of the convective season so far, and hopefully not the last!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Spotted briefly 360 sferics/min that’s very very impressive quite spectacular thunderstorms raging over S Netherlands.

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