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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

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The strangest little downpour has developed right overhead 

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 06 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 07 Aug 2017

ISSUED 05:20 UTC Sun 06 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper trough to the NW of Britain on Sunday, accompanied by some marginal instability in the post-frontal airmass. Shortwaves rotating around the parent trough will provide the focus for deep convection, with scattered showers likely across Northern Ireland, western Scotland and northern portions of the Republic of Ireland during Sunday daytime, the risk then transferring across the remainder of Scotland overnight. Some isolated lightning will be possible.

An increase in elevated instability release seems likely later in the night near the frontal boundary, with lightning perhaps increasing in coverage over the northern North Sea, close to Shetland / Orkney.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-06

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 07 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 08 Aug 2017

ISSUED 20:29 UTC Sun 06 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

... SCOTLAND ...

Under the influence of an upper trough, some isolated lightning may be possible from either scattered showers or close to the frontal boundary, given some marginal instability. A funnel cloud or weak tornado would be possible with this activity, especially near coasts.
 
... SW ENGLAND / MIDLANDS / EAST ANGLIA ...
Late afternoon into the evening, increased forcing arriving from the south as the mean flow backs, close to the quasi-stationary cold front, may provide the focus for an increase in convection. Some uncertainty over the exact positioning of the front, and hence areas affected and also whether convection will be deep enough for lightning. Have issued a broad LOW threat, but it is possible that no lightning activity may occur. The focus generally shifts to East Anglia for Monday night. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-07

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Swarms of flying ants around this evening, Always a good sign.. Fingers crossed for something unexpected later

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"thundery rain" is forecast for my location tomorrow and through Wednesday, we even have a yellow warning of rain for both days!

1 hour ago, TheToastPeople said:

Swarms of flying ants around this evening, Always a good sign.. Fingers crossed for something unexpected later

 

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15 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

"thundery rain" is forecast for my location tomorrow and through Wednesday, we even have a yellow warning of rain for both days!

 

Ooo well best of luck i hope you catch a storm or two!!

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2 minutes ago, TheToastPeople said:

Ooo well best of luck i hope you catch a storm or two!!

Thanks! :D:bomb:

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The radar towards the southwest looks interesting, is anything forecast thundery to come up from the south?

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I know it's not gonna go bang, but there is some very strong convection taking place to my East at the moment... This photo really doesn't do justice to how stunning it really looks. :bomb::good:

IMG_4012.JPG

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We had some semi-decent convection and some sharp showers but nothing thundery:

20170807_171533.thumb.jpg.291393b3c2a13861911fc3f7b279772e.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

I know it's not gonna go bang, but there is some very strong convection taking place to my East at the moment... This photo really doesn't do justice to how stunning it really looks. :bomb::good:

IMG_4012.JPG

Nice anvil there dangerous :rofl:

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1 hour ago, Marcus_surfer said:

The radar towards the southwest looks interesting, is anything forecast thundery to come up from the south?

I doubt it. The charts paint the same picture that convectiveweather does. Emphasis in East Anglia.

viewimage.thumb.png.692bfb2d9810a2103b6867fc58147375.png

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55 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Nice anvil there dangerous :rofl:

Ok, ok... Lol :laugh:
But at least I did manage to get a thunderstorm out of the one the other week. Lol ;)
If we do manage to brew anything up around here, I'll try and send it up your way @Mokidugway :D

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Just now, Dangerous55019 said:

Ok, ok... Lol :laugh:
But at least I did manage to get a thunderstorm out of the one the other week. Lol ;)
If we do manage to brew anything up around here, I'll try and send it up your way @Mokidugway :D

Lol, that would be much appreciated  :D

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 08 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 09 Aug 2017

ISSUED 21:24 UTC Mon 07 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

A very complicated pattern on Tuesday, with an upper vortex sliding SE-wards across Ireland, and in a broad sense pockets of marginal instability across the British Isles. The picture is complicated further by the N-S aligned frontal boundary providing thick cloud and dynamic precipitation to parts of the Midlands and Yorkshire/Lincolnshire, while either side potential exists for deep convection, either beneath the upper vortex in the west, or within the somewhat higher WBPT airmass to the east of the front.

Difficult to pin down any specific area for lightning activity, as there is a fairly broad but low risk in many areas, though some hints in NWP guidance of low-level convergence forcing a line/area of slow-moving torrential downpours in East Anglia during the afternoon and early evening hours. Marginal instability and rather unimpressive lapse rates suggest lightning might be quite isolated or sporadic (probably not worthy of a SLGT), but a very low-end SLGT has been issued to highlight this area a little better - the net result probably some heavy showers with little lightning. This also dependent on sufficient cloud breaks for insolation. Here the main concern is localised flooding. A few funnel clouds or a weak tornado will be possible with this activity.
 
The deepest convection will likely be found over SW Ireland with closest proximity to upper vortex, though this possibly moving through slightly out of sync with the diurnal cycle perhaps.
 

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Posted (edited)

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_080817.thumb.png.2393e9da3d2572f480e1b95b54542618.png

Issued 2017-08-07 22:04:31
Valid: 08/08/2017 00z to 09/08/2017 00z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - TUESDAY 8TH AUGUST 2017

Synopsis

A deep upper trough will slide east and amplify across NW Europe during Tuesday, a potent shortwave trough moving SE across Ireland towards NW France into the base of the upper trough will aid in the deepening of a low pressure system drifting north across the near continent on the forward side of the upper trough. Thunderstorms will spread NE across France Monday night and through Tuesday, with a risk of storms developing across SE UK too, while a frontal wave further north and west will bring outbreaks of heavy and perhaps thundery rain.

… SE ENGLAND and EAST ANGLIA …

Plume of warm, humid and unstable air spreading northeast across France with low pressure system moving north ahead of approaching upper trough to the west looks to clip SE UK on Tuesday. Thunderstorms spreading northeast across France Monday night into Tuesday morning may spread across the eastern English Channel to affect SE England and parts of E Anglia, though 'home-grown' storms may also develop aong breeze convergence too. Storms will likely be hit and miss and with weak deep layer shear, unlikely to produce widespread severe weather … though models indicate rainfall totals that warrant a MARGINAL risk of torrential downpours leading to surface water flooding. Also light winds aloft, surface convergence and fairly low cloud bases will be ideal conditions for funnel clouds or even brief weak tornadoes/waterspouts.

… CENTRAL S ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, YORKS and LINCS …

Slow-moving frontal wave edging north across the above areas on Tuesday will bring outbreaks of heavy rain, waves rippling along the front may produce deep enough convection for a few embedded thunderstorms along the front which will move NE, particularly during Tuesday morning. A low risk of localised flooding may occur where convective torrential downpours develop along the front.

... IRELAND, SW ENGLAND and WALES ...

Shortwave trough moving SE will create steep lapse rates with surface heating in expected sunny spells and create lift of cool but moist airmass ... which will support heavy showers and a few scattered thunderstorms which maybe accompanied by hail, gusty winds and locally torrential rain.

Edited by Nick F
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Two cracks of thunder already from sharp shower to my east. Good start.

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thought I just heard thunder in Chelmsford - sounded odd though

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Posted (edited)

Nice convection/pileus cloud right now! (looking towards the N)

IMG_0324.JPG

IMG_0325.JPG

IMG_0326.JPG

Edited by LightningLover

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just had some thunder to the south of me but haven't seen any lightning only heavy rain :closedeyes:

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East of Norfolk and that region seems to really be doing well for storms this year, they may not be many big ones to write home about but just the amount of days that its managed to rumble over that way is impressive compared to normal

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1 minute ago, Delka said:

East of Norfolk and that region seems to really be doing well for storms this year, they may not be many big ones to write home about but just the amount of days that its managed to rumble over that way is impressive compared to normal

Must be 10+ days already?

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