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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

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Posted (edited)
On 4/21/2018 at 00:00, Ben Sainsbury said:

To simplify some of the forecasts I've seen, I've identified the main periods of what storms to expect across the UK tomorrow. We are looking at 3 periods of storms.

Ignore the key in the bottom-left I use these for my own storm forecasts. 

risk.thumb.jpg.3ebd12a252a3ce9fd05b1e9657a74c05.jpg

Was it this one MPR ?? Only 1 part of that was correct ? No Surface Based Storms in the Green Box and most of the Yellow Box North and East of Sussex never saw a flash of Lightning ?

Forecasting Storms is hard Innit :D

Edited by Paul Sherman

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Huge anvil from that storm over Cambridge! With it being surfaced based might even have some rotation to it. Supercell?

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At least the forecast for storms breaking out across E England this afternoon has generally gone to plan :D

 

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8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

At least the forecast for storms breaking out across E England this afternoon has generally gone to plan :D

 

Shame they can't break out in the right place though ;-) , seems odd that a few days of hot(ish) weather produces an uninspiring breakdown in the eastern counties more often than not these days! 

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2 hours ago, Nick F said:

Good question, the maps with the symbols is a new concept I'm trying out for the Netweather forecasts, as is the areas depicted, for now only using the tornado symbol if I feel there is good confidence and likelihood of the type of storms that may produce one, confidence is low for this afternoon, so although not ruling out in the forecast, I think to put the symbol on the map would imply confidence of one forming - which there isn't.

To echo Paul's post above, really don't understand the bashing the UK convective forecasts get, forecasting thunderstorms with any detail to where storms will form and where they will affect with any accuracy is inherently difficult - especially the UK, so we rely on models and a little recent obs data, such as radiosonde ascents and station data upstream of areas where storms may form to work out the forecasts, but models can often be out, even at short-range with simulating convection. Often a convective forecast issued in advance will tend have errors in reality to mapping where storms are most likely, but that is unfortunately often a downside for those who produce them, but the forecasts can give a general idea of where storms are most likely and whether they will be isolated, likely, strong or even severe - given parameters shown by models and obs.

 

Thanks for explaining Nick. I hope the second paragraph wasn't aimed at me (I don't think it was btw) as I know these things are incredibly difficult to predict and I would never bash someone with more information and experience than myself for their predictions (well, except maybe the bbc who in my experience seem to get it wrong 80% of the time!).

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3 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

It says in your Logo "Amatuer Meteorologist and Storm Forecaster" Ben

Any chance you could put a little effort into a forecast for the next convective event ? It's all too easy to bash others that give their opinions on here. Remember they are forecasting when conditions look favourable with what they have on the table from the models they look at and it did to them warrant a Moderate with 800-1000 MU Cape and an active front coming in from the west.

Like I said hope to see you forecast the next chance of Thunder in the Uk and will look out for it and certainly WONT bash it if it goes wrong - Dan and Convective Weather like Torro and Nick here on Netweather do an amazing job and should be applauded IMHO

My post regarding the storm potential for the last few days is found here: 

Because of other commitments I hadn't had the time to update on the potential, until Saturday morning when I was freed of my A-Level work.

To be clear, I haven't actually bashed any forecaster I continually go on about the uncertainty and the challenging nature of forecasting storms are what inspire me of these top forecasters regarding Dan, Nick and so on.

The only point I ever made was regarding ConvectiveWeather's post after having updated the MDT area to cover where I live, after we had finished with all our storm activity. 

I regularly applaud those who put in the hard work and this is an example of me saying thanks towards CW.

5adcd615ab6dd_ConvectiveWeather.thumb.jpg.66416923998e13b005b9e7efbd1c044e.jpg

And finally, that chart which you originally quoted me in was away of condensing various forecasters and simplifying it for those struggling to understand what areas would receive what storms at whatever time.

No hard feelings.

 

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Yh after looking back at posts can see you defending the forecasters so sorry for the dig.

I just hope most people on here appreciate the time and effort these guys go to for us and the general public 

No hard feelings at all.

 

Just as an aside note, last night after meeting up with Peter Scott to shoot some lightning he mentioned he had spoken to Dan earlier in the day (Saturday) and Dan had stated there was the possibility of a Storm that could become a Supercell over East Anglia on Sunday. Absolutely spot on to him as I dont know how many of you know that today saw that rare visitor to our shores.

A storm initiated around 4pm near Saffron Walden and tracked up to Bury St Edmonds where it became Surface based, it then turned right from the deviant flow and produced a left split storm (Splitting is indicitive of a highly Sheared Storm/Supercell) this storm after looking at a sounding actually utilised locally 2000jkg of Surface based cape and produced hail upto 1cm in diameter. 

What an amazing few days

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Evening All! An Amazing Winter followed By an Amazing Spring....Really could not make it up , :rofl:After a very long winter we get summer in just 24 hrs. Forecasting thunderstorms in this country is about as difficult as how much snow you will get in your back garden in winter!, ,,,A Spectacular display of lightning last night , hoping its just the start of something really special :yahoo:

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Have anyone taken or have seen any pictures regarding today’s storm (supercell) over parts of East Anglia today, would be interesting to see the structure of that thing as it developed into a supercell?

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Very impressive start to the storm season so far. I hope this is a sign of things to come through the summer! 

If it can be as good as last year, I'll be happy! Last May was awesome with that Cornish monster and that enormous MCS that started over N France and clipped the SE. June I remember seeing a very unusual, but unprecedented MCS form off the Yorkshire/Northumberland coast that lasted all night, headed on a SE trajectory slamming Hamburg and Hannover in the morning hours and then finishing up in the Czech Republic during the evening. Now if that can happen, then surely anything can! 

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Had some marble size hail sat evening from the 2nd batch of storms for my area in Poole. Never seen them that big before!! 

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On 22/04/2018 at 07:23, Surrey said:

Some of us did really well last night others not so the surface based storms further north that were due to fire got scuppered by that area of rain and cloud associated with the first thunderstorms yesterday morning I think. 

But then by the evening the monsters that moved north really put a light show on for us down south. 

Better still and a rare event is there is no crud left over this morning and it's back to clear skies and glorious sunshine 

But it was sunny here all day. 

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4 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Long wait now until the next event methinks 😕

Still waiting for the next event and have been virtually since September 2016.

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A video I took from Saturday night of the insane rain and flash flooding (sorry for some of the language lol)

I've been to Florida several times but Saturday night was probably the heaviest rain I've ever seen in my life. Combined with 4/5 hours of almost constant lightning it's made for a pretty decent start to the storm season!

Feel sorry for the people who had their property damaged though.

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Still feeling glum from saturday nights bust (all electrical activity just stopped - literally like a switch just before the storm/s entered my area, not so much as a rumble :cray:). This hobby can really get you down sometimes, but I'm trying hard to be optimistic and look at it as if that can happen in april it may well bode well for the rest of the year.

Nice to hear of a supercell in east anglia sunday. Does anyone know if saturdays southern storms preduced a supercell, as there was a huge mass on radar that night but I only know what a supercell looks like in real life and although I can spot obvious hook echos of tornados on radar, I'm unsure how to tell a normal storm from a supercell on radar?

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22 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Have anyone taken or have seen any pictures regarding today’s storm (supercell) over parts of East Anglia today, would be interesting to see the structure of that thing as it developed into a supercell?

Lewis took some photos and videos, and uploaded them here: https://www.facebook.com/lewis.blythe.1/posts/10155386124505913 

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59 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Still feeling glum from saturday nights bust (all electrical activity just stopped - literally like a switch just before the storm/s entered my area, not so much as a rumble :cray:). This hobby can really get you down sometimes, but I'm trying hard to be optimistic and look at it as if that can happen in april it may well bode well for the rest of the year.

Nice to hear of a supercell in east anglia sunday. Does anyone know if saturdays southern storms preduced a supercell, as there was a huge mass on radar that night but I only know what a supercell looks like in real life and although I can spot obvious hook echos of tornados on radar, I'm unsure how to tell a normal storm from a supercell on radar?

Very unlikely because of how rare they are in the UK but a couple mesoscale systems look likely.☺️

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Possible supercell passing Saffron Walden yesterday shortly after it electrified, showing Pileus cloud cap. Couldn't catch up with it though unfortunately.

StormCellNrCambridge1.JPG

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 24 Apr 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 25 Apr 2018

ISSUED 08:53 UTC Tue 24 Apr 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Steepening mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating will allow a few scattered heavy showers to develop over parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northwest Republic of Ireland Tuesday afternoon. Instability is not particularly impressive, though strong DLS may compensate to produce a few isolated lightning strikes. Forecast profiles look quite dry in the upper troposphere, and deep convection may become capped around 500mb.

Later in the night a much more significant upper cold pool arrives from the Atlantic, accompanied by numerous showers into western coasts of Ireland and Scotland. Again some isolated lightning will be possible from this activity, given very steep mid-level lapse rates and some marginal instability.
 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Another Kent clipper said:

I took this a few hours ago from the ring of brodgar, orkney islands. Nothing exciting on the radar at the time

 

IMG_20180424_135416.jpg

Impressive, most impressive. :)

Edited by Windblade
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