Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

[Gordon Webb]

7 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Latest NMM not so promising for my neck of the woods. I therefore have the familiar conundrum of whether to stay put or head out. If I do head out I have the gamble of going north to catch storms that may fire across N Wales and push across NW England and into N England or head southeast for possible elevated storms later on.

I'd go to the SE if I were as this cloud spreading from the south really is arriving at the wrong time of day

[Darren Bown]

All eyes on Wales I guess then for stuff to start breaking out. Saw someone on UKWW post potential for super cells right where I am this evening?

[Darren Bown]

2 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

I'd go to the SE if I were as this cloud spreading from the south really is arriving at the wrong time of day

Still clear from stoke up to Manchester, so plenty of heat. NW England seems to be favourable atm.

[Ben Sainsbury]

I'm sure many are wondering why with such large values of CAPE and strong heating that many areas aren't experiencing strong thunderstorms.

In my POV, high pressure is still too strongly in control. The high begins to move away from 4pm onwards which is when we should see further initiation.

Unfortunately we want low pressure when we have storms, as now the high pressure is effectively pushing down on the storm updrafts preventing them from growing to a considerable height for any lightning activity. Hope this clears things up.

[Paul Sherman]

21 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Latest NMM not so promising for my neck of the woods. I therefore have the familiar conundrum of whether to stay put or head out. If I do head out I have the gamble of going north to catch storms that may fire across N Wales and push across NW England and into N England or head southeast for possible elevated storms later on.

Meh

Cant you do both, call yourself a Storm Chaser  Average chase day in the Alley is between 500-700 miles

Get on it buddy!

[LightningLover]

AcCas spotted!

[Wilxy]

2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I'm sure many are wondering why with such large values of CAPE and strong heating that many areas aren't experiencing strong thunderstorms.

In my POV, high pressure is still too strongly in control. The high begins to move away from 4pm onwards which is when we should see further initiation.

Unfortunately we want low pressure when we have storms, as now the high pressure is effectively pushing down on the storm updrafts preventing them from growing to a considerable height for any lightning activity. Hope this clears things up.

That should change by the evening i'm holding my hopes up on the elevated stuff later on but i'm likely to head a bit South and East if I need to!

[Weather-history]

Some altocumulus castellanus is passing over now.

[Cheshire Freeze]

20 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

Still clear from stoke up to Manchester, so plenty of heat. NW England seems to be favourable atm.

Clear as a bell here and very warm

[Supacell]

36 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

If you ask me head southeast towards London ?

i’m getting The feeling we are really well placed for later but i’m still nervous about it

?

 

26 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

I'd go to the SE if I were as this cloud spreading from the south really is arriving at the wrong time of day

Thanks guys, I see the SE is favoured by some, but others would favour the NW. There looks to be a mass of rain on the radar heading for here in currently clear blue sky Belper, but all that is likely to do is act as a spoiler for later on. It is unlikely to affect the northern storms though as it will pass to the SE of the likes of N Wales and Liverpool/Manchester.

15 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Meh

Cant you do both, call yourself a Storm Chaser  Average chase day in the Alley is between 500-700 miles

Get on it buddy!

That would be ideal, but I think I would need a faster car and empty roads, the latter being something of a rarity in the good ole UK

Edited April 21, 2018 by Supacell

[BlueHedgehog074]

A bit of rain here now. But despite the clouds looking quite thundery looking, not really that much happening storm-wise here (yet)

[Mapantz]

A bit of undulation going on here.

[Sparkiee storm]

Very 'plumey' type skies, but only a light shower atm.

Just looked at the sat and looks like skies clearing after this bit of rain clears, hopefully that is when the inland storms will begin to develop whether it be elevated or surface based and may make it feel more muggy as the moisture from this rain evaporates.

Also remember Estofex forecast... Level 1 for Southern and Central areas, also East Wales.

Edited April 21, 2018 by Sparkiee storm

[Weather-history]

17 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Some altocumulus castellanus is passing over now.

More cloud development now on satellite away from the main cloud area 

[Chris.R]

Still heating up nicely here. 21.3°C now, a little warmer than the WRF predicted for this time. Feels favourable here for later. 

[The PIT]

Looks like the clump of rain will pass to the south east of us. Hazy sunshine and low dew points . Too early to say if it's going top be a dead duck. Local forecasts till has it dry for us today. 

[A.J]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A bit of undulation going on here.

are you talking about the weather or your private life mapantz? 

30 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

All eyes on Wales I guess then 

first time that's happened since the 1958 world cup....lol

 

 

 

 

...still plenty of mid-level stuff here with heavy showers moving onshore 50 miles or so to my south

[Staffordshire]

Clouding over in the centre of Manchester as of the past 10 minutes, hope this won't inhibit things here.

[Darren Bown]

Just now, Staffordshire said:

Clouding over in the centre of Manchester as of the past 10 minutes, hope this won't inhibit things here.

I’m in stoke and it’s clear still, so perhaps convection is getting going as the air becomes a little less stable?

[Dangerous55019]

Really warm here at the moment... Milky hazy sky as well... But not anywhere near as humid as I was expecting. But we have got some small, weak towers starting to go up... It’s a start. 

[Mapantz]

I can see it heaving down towards Swanage, the Purbeck hills have disappeared. Dry as a bone here, thankfully.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Sat24 shows extremely promising signs at the moment over NW France for tonight. Large developments within a short time frame along with new sferics!

Edited April 21, 2018 by Ben Sainsbury

[Harry]

Still totally unbroken warm sunshine on the Kent plains. Only subtle difference is there is a fraction more haze courtesy of a tad more humidity (I’m guessing). 

We should be entering the realm of initiation for C/W parts in the next 30-60 mins. 

 

Edited April 21, 2018 by Harry

[Wilxy]

temp back up to 21C but RH is 73% with a dew point of 16C so feeling quite humid which is good news in fact it feels more humid after it has rained so fingers crossed its a good omen for later on!

[A.J]

steering flow is moving cloud/showers etc on an increasingly NE trajectory as opposed to a more northerly movement earlier today......not great for the west country it has to be said