Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards


Supacell

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Whilst I normally have trust in Euro4, I'm rather skeptical for what it producing during the day now.

At 9am, they have shown no storms to have initiated at all!

5adaef8e68939_Euro49am.thumb.gif.c9e61fc76d24daa45b69697492dcae23.gif

And they don't even show any storms to initiate until 3pm across SW/CS England, risk looks a little eastwards compared to various other models.

5adaefd67144f_Euro43pm.thumb.gif.09c0dac9eb55c532de361cdd5446cb0b.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
13 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I always thought a thunderstorm of a large intensity, could effectively “use up” the atmospheric CAPE?

You are correct it can.☺️

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
49 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

The Net-W SR model looks promising for later this afternoon/evening.

If this is correct then you and I are in for a treat ?

Sun is shining brightly here now with clear blue skies.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
56 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Whilst I normally have trust in Euro4, I'm rather skeptical for what it producing during the day now.

At 9am, they have shown no storms to have initiated at all!

5adaef8e68939_Euro49am.thumb.gif.c9e61fc76d24daa45b69697492dcae23.gif

And they don't even show any storms to initiate until 3pm across SW/CS England, risk looks a little eastwards compared to various other models.

5adaefd67144f_Euro43pm.thumb.gif.09c0dac9eb55c532de361cdd5446cb0b.gif

Its more of an afternoon / evening thing tho isnt it ?? Esp for SE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield

Up in Manchester for the weekend, really hoping I get to see something today but t seems as though things may have trended ever so slightly east.

 

we know how this story always ends up... get yourself to Lincolnshire :rofl:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
19 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Its more of an afternoon / evening thing tho isnt it ?? Esp for SE.

Well here are the Euro4 for 9pm and midnight. Much of North Wales and West Midlands actually miss out, very different compared to NMM Model. According to Euro4, CS/SE England into East Midlands look a treat.

5adaff105249b_euro49pm.thumb.gif.d3f4ce4f8b63a9855c34762b53f8e25f.gif5adaff136a6ec_euro412.thumb.gif.b359102808f106a0ca89b39977b7a742.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
16 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Its more of an afternoon / evening thing tho isnt it ?? Esp for SE.

Indeed - probably at peak heating around 3pm I reckon we’ll see some discrete showers or thunderstorms developing say in the Bristol environs then develop in coverage through the midlands heading NE/NNE.

At the same time storms developing over N France/Channel regions could grow in coverage and also drift NE across SE quarter.

The difficulty is knowing whether storm development will be limited to the trough feature/boundaries of the plume or whether the plume itself will destabilise more broadly as pressure falls from the west. Both scenarios are possible as have happened in the past couple of years.

038DC66E-DBC1-4668-AE05-7FD4C3712543.png

72EDBCA8-738F-46BE-A02D-D6DF6D492B86.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Well here are the Euro4 for 9pm and midnight. Much of North Wales and West Midlands actually miss out, very different compared to NMM Model. According to Euro4, CS/SE England into East Midlands look a treat.

5adaff105249b_euro49pm.thumb.gif.d3f4ce4f8b63a9855c34762b53f8e25f.gif5adaff136a6ec_euro412.thumb.gif.b359102808f106a0ca89b39977b7a742.gif

Convective initiation, as has been mentioned is relying strongly on the 850hpa - 900hpa warm sector being eroded. Euro4 is suggesting sufficient cloud levels to prohibit insolation, hence sporadic development. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Looks like i'm going to be heading East today as we look to be to far West for tonight's action!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Promising skies this morning. Bristol's going to be very generous to other areas today I feel.

image.jpeg

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

We have lift-off, small areas of precipitation have developed over South Wales. (Difficult to tell whether radar glitch or not)

Some half decent convection taking place over me here, beginning to build up in height somewhat.

Sat24 shows this rapid developments in last 15 minutes.

5adb071960fe9_AreaofInterest.thumb.jpg.7f6575476d4434b808b3fa5c14fb05b2.jpg

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Oh yes @MP-R that’s what we’re talking about! More of that would be amazing.

On the Kent ‘plains’ here it’s a very promising start - cloudless skies aiding hopefully many hours of good insolation! The little bit of breeze we have here feels quite warm too.

682F1E3B-A80E-4C30-BDC9-70C8B77D0EFB.jpeg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
9 minutes ago, Harry said:

Oh yes @MP-R that’s what we’re talking about! More of that would be amazing.

On the Kent ‘plains’ here it’s a very promising start - cloudless skies aiding hopefully many hours of good insolation! The little bit of breeze we have here feels quite warm too.

682F1E3B-A80E-4C30-BDC9-70C8B77D0EFB.jpeg

Elevated Storms are not routed to the boundary (surface) layer so insolation is not really a contributing factor. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:

Elevated Storms are not routed to the boundary (surface) layer so insolation is not really a contributing factor. 

That’s very true - was thinking more for others further north to be fair, however saying that Ben’s earlier post suggests increasing cloud further west. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
59 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

Hoping for some activity creeping up over the Thames later. Would love to stand in the door way with a beer tonight.

I'm up for that! Facing west and a good clear view of the sky, and Reigate hill on my right. A lovely sheltered porch for a chair and a beer. Here's hoping!  :)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

The showers formed North of Cardiff are a positive sign for those further NE of North Midlands etc. 

Further SE however, the main area of showers across South Devon are beginning to peter out. The area of cloud whilst expanding seems to be thinning across these areas at the moment. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

Lots of altocumulus rolling in here. Was hoping anything holds off until dark as have a bbq this afternoon/evening and would love to be able to lay on the grass drunk pondering my life choices and watching a light show.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate
  • Weather Preferences: Wake me up when the storms arrive
  • Location: South East UK, Reigate

Met Office don't seem to consider the potential SE ingressions from France and the west as a "Yellow". So far? We're going to make sure it rains by getting the BBQ going later today. Do you think that will be enough to generate a few severe cells around our house?  :bomb:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
35 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Promising skies this morning. Bristol's going to be very generous to other areas today I feel.

image.jpeg

promising yes, but I fear for our area, (m4 corridor to say Reading) I fear we will miss out....storms will fire to the north and west today (surface based) with elevated storms tonight tracking to the east of our region......hopefully wrong though

Edited by ajpoolshark
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

promising yes, but I fear for our area, (m4 corridor to say Reading) I fear we will miss out....storms will fire to the north and west today (surface based) with elevated storms tonight tracking to the east of our region......hopefully wrong though

Indeed, hence my reference to other areas. Personally I don't mind as long as I get sunshine instead.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Well here are the Euro4 for 9pm and midnight. Much of North Wales and West Midlands actually miss out, very different compared to NMM Model. According to Euro4, CS/SE England into East Midlands look a treat.

5adaff105249b_euro49pm.thumb.gif.d3f4ce4f8b63a9855c34762b53f8e25f.gif5adaff136a6ec_euro412.thumb.gif.b359102808f106a0ca89b39977b7a742.gif

Ta for that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
1 hour ago, MattTarrant said:

Convective initiation, as has been mentioned is relying strongly on the 850hpa - 900hpa warm sector being eroded. Euro4 is suggesting sufficient cloud levels to prohibit insolation, hence sporadic development. 

looking at recent images that might be possible for some areas

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...