Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

[Another Kent clipper]

26 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Fantastic, thank you @Another Kent clipper 

You're welcome dangerous.  It's on lightningmaps.org then click on archives to get historical strikes

[chapmanslade]

Here is a bit of fun to while away the convection free periods

http://profhorn.meteor.wisc.edu/wxwise/thermo/h5/tstm.html

 

 

[Windblade]

Pretty much every week this winter I've seen scotland, northern ireland and occasionally north wales get the odd strike on radar and sometimes more. Right now as I type this there is a barmer of a storm going on in northern scotland, while all winter in the southeast...(crickets). It ain't fair! 

Edited February 14, 2018 by Windblade

[Mokidugway]

We've had quite a lot of thunder sporadic but regular.

 

[Convective]

Looking at the detectors, there was a decent storm in northwest Ireland recently. The UK map shows 111 sferics in the last hour. Not bad for mid-February!

A couple of strikes north of here recently, too. Maybe something to follow overnight as the showers continue to push through.

Edited February 15, 2018 by Convective

[Windblade]

Capture from the last 24 hours...

 

WOW!!!

Edited February 15, 2018 by Windblade

[Nick F]

Chance of hail and thunder from heavy showers expected to push up from the south tomorrow across SW and S England along with South Wales. Upper low moves in from the SW with strong PV wrapping around it leading to large scale ascent of moist maritime airmass with increasingly cold air aloft of approaching upper low  leading to steepening lapse rates. So this will support strong enough convection for hail generation and some lightning along with some heavy rainfall that could lead to localised flooding.

 

 

Could be further opportunities for hail and thunder on Tuesday, Wednesday and perhaps Thursday for southern areas, as low pressure and cold upper trough close to the west drives a moist flow across the UK characterised by steep lapse rates.

Edited March 3, 2018 by Nick F

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 04 Mar 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 05 Mar 2018

ISSUED 07:04 UTC Sun 04 Mar 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 07:04 UTC LOW extended NE across the Midlands and into NW England

Upper low to the southwest of Ireland and associated cold pool will generate steep lapse rates on Sunday - instability largely elevated

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-03-04

[Nick F]

Netweather convective / storm forecast issued for SW/S UK and S Ireland:

 

[LightningLover]

I have to say, I’m really looking forward to this year’s convective season! Last year really wasn’t bad at all for thunderstorms IMO, and I hope this year compares or is even better for all of us!

[Ben Sainsbury]

4 hours ago, LightningLover said:

I have to say, I’m really looking forward to this year’s convective season! Last year really wasn’t bad at all for thunderstorms IMO, and I hope this year compares or is even better for all of us!

Definitely after all this radar watching I've spent watching snow reaching the south coast, reminds me of the large thunderstorms and MCS's which cross the channel.

Fingers crossed for a good'un and hope we see more of this!...

Edited March 4, 2018 by Ben Sainsbury

[Wilxy]

12 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Definitely after all this radar watching I've spent watching snow reaching the south coast, reminds me of the large thunderstorms and MCS's which cross the channel.

Fingers crossed for a good'un and hope we see more of this!...

Can't wait for the storms to begin!

[NUT]

Last year was a tease up here. We had some cracking storms 31st May (cup final day in scotland and england) and a week later we had 4 hours of almost continuous thunder but at same time other potential belters missed up by breaking up over the mountains here or staying to the south/east/north/west. Maybe better luck this year for more

[MP-R]

Some sferics associated with that precipitation in the English Channel. Also seen some cbs floating around this afternoon. Hopefully the start of a convective spring/summer to come.

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 05 Mar 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 06 Mar 2018

ISSUED 11:36 UTC Mon 05 Mar 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Close to a surface low moving inland this evening over SW England, some elements of embedded deep convection will be possible, capable of producing a few lightning strikes. This risk will transfer inland, while reducing, across the Midlands during the evening and night. 

The lightning risk will also increase later in the night south of Ireland as deeper convection develops in response to cold air aloft atop SSTs.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-03-05

[matty40s]

Stunning structures in Northants just before sunset.

 

[Weather-history]

Early spring convection, a couple of hail showers

 

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 10 Mar 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 11 Mar 2018

ISSUED 09:05 UTC Sat 10 Mar 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

On the forward side of an upper trough to the west of Biscay, a notably warm, moist airmass will cover southern Britain for a time on Saturday as a warm front lifts north, this relatively high WBPT airmass then shunted eastwards by a cold front this evening. Some elements of mid-level instability will be possible with some of this frontal precipitation, though in general near-saturated profiles and weak CAPE suggests the lightning risk is quite low in any one location.

Overnight, mid-level lapse rates will steepen as relatively warm, moist low-level airmass begins to advect north towards southern Britain and southern Ireland. A frontal wave will pass close to SE England at the very end of the night into Sunday morning, perhaps containing some embedded elevated convection, but perhaps a greater risk is SW Ireland - though in both cases, lightning coverage is probably below SLGT thresholds.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-03-10

[Nick F]

Some elevated storms pushing N toward Cornwall atm,

Risk of scattered heavy showers with the odd rumble of thunder developing more widely across England and Wales today in moist flow destabilised by cooling aloft/forcing from upper low moving in from SW + surface heating, though more robust convection needed for thunder reliant on cloud breaks to allow insolation inland.

Netweather storm forecast: https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 11 Mar 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 12 Mar 2018

ISSUED 08:26 UTC Sun 11 Mar 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 08:26 UTC SLGTs added for current activity approaching Cornwall/Scilly this morning (this may need extending E-wards across Devon and perhaps even S Wales for this afternoon), and a large SLGT primarily focussed over SE England / E Anglia / Home Counties for late afternoon into the evening hours as better forcing arrives from the SW (though marginal instability still suggests low confidence). An isolated tornado may be possible near low-level wind convergence given some LLS and backed surface winds. Depending on developments, this SLGT may also need extending into Wales.

Upper trough will slowly approach the British Isles from the southwest on Sunday. On the forward side, relatively warm, moist low-level airmass will reside across southern Britain, with several post-frontal troughs / occlusions spreading showery bursts of rain northwards. A frontal wave will also pass close to or over SE England and East Anglia during the morning hours.

Elements of elevated convection are possible with any of this activity, given some marginal instability - though with saturated profiles, it is questionable as to how much lightning activity may occur.

 

Two main timeframes exist for some lightning activity - during the morning hours across SW England / W Country from mid-level activity (though far from certain given a lack of support in some models). There is also a narrow window where some surface-based convection may occur during the mid/late afternoon and early evening, where some high resolution NWP suggest a few heavy showers may develop associated with some low-level wind convergence in a zone from E Wales / W Country / M4 corridor to SE England, this line then shifting northwards with time across the Midlands and East Anglia - however, this is very much dependent on sufficient breaks in the cloud and given fairly saturated profiles and marginal instability we have refrained from issuing a SLGT for now.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-03-11

[Ben Sainsbury]

Interesting scenario beginning to play out at the moment. 

Despite marginal instability a few heavy showers have currently formed from Salisbury to Portsmouth, this is in connection with a convergence zone off the south coast. 

This convergence zone is to spread NNE across the late afternoon towards Reading.

Skies are beginning to clear across SE areas currently, as a result best place to be currently an area from Southampton to Brighton to Reading.

The occasional lightning strike looks possible here.

Edited March 11, 2018 by Ben Sainsbury

[toggerob]

It must have been around 2 or 3am in the morning that I was taking a quick peek on the Radar seeing if much was around, and seeing towards Lille/Dunkirk there was quite a rain-ladened area of PPN that produced a few sferics. It might have just brushed the outskirts of Rotterdam but it was getting late and I needed sleep.

[Ben Sainsbury]

11 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

It must have been around 2 or 3am in the morning that I was taking a quick peek on the Radar seeing if much was around, and seeing towards Lille/Dunkirk there was quite a rain-ladened area of PPN that produced a few sferics. It might have just brushed the outskirts of Rotterdam but it was getting late and I needed sleep.

Correct a few strikes around, looked to have been around 1:30am in the morning.

The amount of strikes over the course of this morning off the coast of Cornwall quite staggering.

Edited March 11, 2018 by Ben Sainsbury

[Daniel*]

First proper convective day of the year it looks some really potent cells have fired up in the last hour. These may be thundery.

[Nick F]

2 rumbles of Thunder heard rumbling to the south of here in Croydon, sky going dark to the south, first thunder of the year I think