Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

[Chris.R]

9 thunder days this year, 9 events total. No overhead storms or active storms with greater than 5 strikes.

5 events were ocean effect convection driven (O); 2 were Squall lines (L); 1 was diurnal polar maritime driven (PM; and 1 was diurnal warm sector driven (TM).

Dates were: 28/02O, 25/04O, 19/07TM, 22/07PM, 26/07L, 18/08L, 14/09O, 25/11O and 28/12O.    

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I don't think this years been a particularly good one convectively speaking.

Absolute beauty down in the south west at the very start of summer - but missed that (was in a very thunderless Italy at the time!) but we did get that belter of an import later in the season.

Other than those two there was a small and rather infrequent electrical storm during Staycation (or town's annual festival) - which made it a washout - but overall I wasn't too impressed with out lot in the South and was hoping for at least a few more.

A lot of failed plumes as I recall.

Hoping for a much better season in 2018!

[Mokidugway]

Last thunder of the year just  before knocked me off line and  my power supply 

[toggerob]

Heavy rain-drops splattering against the window and on the roof currently, i'd sympathize with anyone heading out for NYE celebrations as it looks like there's more rain to come for the NW around midnight here. 

[Eye to the sky]

A very poor season again here in Derby.Only 1 storm and even that was a good few miles away in mid summer.Nothing overhead at all.Seems a reoccurring trend here over the last 10 years or so.We just don't  seem to get storms like we did in the 90's anymore.

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 01 Jan 2018 - 05:59 UTC Tue 02 Jan 2018

ISSUED 21:32 UTC Sun 31 Dec 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough will migrate east on Monday, allowing ridging to develop from the west - eventually suppressing the depth of convection. However, initially steep lapse rates will be present with cold air aloft atop SSTs generating areas of showers, some weakly-electrified - especially around some coasts. Small hail and gusty winds will be possible with the most intense showers.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-01-01

[Supacell]

48 minutes ago, Eye to the sky said:

A very poor season again here in Derby.Only 1 storm and even that was a good few miles away in mid summer.Nothing overhead at all.Seems a reoccurring trend here over the last 10 years or so.We just don't  seem to get storms like we did in the 90's anymore.

Not a single storm here either. There was one day when there was a one rumble thundery shower at home (as reported to me by my parents who live a mile away) but I was at work and so didn't see it.

I did see a few out chasing but the year fell behind the previous 3 years for storms that were offered. Best storm was on the evening of July 18th/19th when I chased across Cambridgeshire and into Suffolk. That night produced a humdinger with frequent lightning, torrential rain and hail the size of 50p's.

[Daniel*]

A very poor year for London we had some really intense rain a few thunderstorms but no ‘sustained’ T&L the far SE done very well out of MCS in June? I think there was two which affected SE corner. 

[Mokidugway]

Think I got the last thunder of the year 

[stevofunnelcl]

checking out the radar this morning

what is that to the south-west approaches

looks like a big round eye !!

[Supacell]

3 hours ago, stevofunnelcl said:

checking out the radar this morning

what is that to the south-west approaches

looks like a big round eye !!

I believe it may be the centre of storm Carmen which is due to affect France. Severe weather likely here with a rare level 3 from Estofex for western France for severe wind gusts and risk of tornadoes. Unlikely to bring more than a bit of rain to us though, affecting the southernmost counties.

Already a lot of lightning being detected around Brittany. 

Edited January 1, 2018 by Supacell

[toggerob]

So-much for wanting to see the first 'supermoon' of this year rising in the East, looking out West there's a convective trough making inroads across the NW with blue skies now transitioning back to clouds again.

[Mokidugway]

4 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

So-much for wanting to see the first 'supermoon' of this year rising in the East, looking out West there's a convective trough making inroads across the NW with blue skies now transitioning back to clouds again.

First band has gone through ,more incoming 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 02 Jan 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 03 Jan 2018

ISSUED 23:21 UTC Mon 01 Jan 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Main interest during this period is the cold front and following post-frontal environment where deep convection is likely. Frontal wave eventually evolving into a closed low will promote WAA ahead of a well-forced cold front. In a strongly-sheared environment with marginal instability, elements of line convection seem likely along the surface cold front during the evening hours, capable of producing a spell of squally rain, strong gusts of wind and perhaps a tornado given backed low-level winds.

 

Lightning activity may be limited somewhat with this feature given limited convective depth, but as colder air aloft overspreads SSTs, so showers that follow the cold front will have greater convective depths and better potential to produce some lightning, especially offshore and close to western and southern coasts. Once more, strong gusts of wind and small hail will be possible with this activity.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-01-02

[Mokidugway]

Looks potentially damaging ,one to be taken seriously , forget bloody snow .

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 03 Jan 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 04 Jan 2018

ISSUED 20:05 UTC Tue 02 Jan 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough will migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Wednesday, with cold mid-levels atop SSTs generating some instability. Squally showers will run eastwards, some with small hail, gusty winds and sporadic lightning - moreso close to west-facing coasts. Increasing heights ahead of the next frontal system will limit convective depth from the SW, with showers here becoming increasingly isolated with time.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-01-03

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 04 Jan 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 05 Jan 2018

ISSUED 09:48 UTC Thu 04 Jan 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Several small-scale areas of low pressure will drift across the British Isles at times during this forecast period, providing the focus for organised areas of showers or longer spells of rain (and hill snow in the north). Lapse rates will steepen later in the day and overnight as an upper trough approaches from the Atlantic. A strongly-sheared environment over southern Britain associated with an area of showery precipitation and marginal instability this evening and tonight might allow some strong gusts of wind and sporadic lightning (though convective depth limited somewhat) - the risk also of an isolated tornado.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-01-04

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 05 Jan 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 06 Jan 2018

ISSUED 21:13 UTC Thu 04 Jan 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Beneath a sharpening upper trough, multiple small-scale areas of low pressure add to a rather complicated picture with various contorted fronts bringing showery bursts of rain in places, but getting the exact location of these features correct remains difficult, let alone their tendency to meander about through the day on Friday. Nonetheless, the main trend is for heights to build from the NW with time, forcing any frontal features to gradually slip away to the south as profiles stabilise from the north.

 

Cold air aloft atop SSTs (and diurnal heating inland) creates an environment with modestly steep lapse rates, with some sporadic lightning possible almost anywhere - but more especially close to the coast or over open waters, particularly towards southern and western areas. A messy mix of dynamic and convective precipitation will exist, some capable of small hail and perhaps gusty winds - though the wind threat primarily associated with small lows drifting through at times. A few funnels or perhaps a weak waterspout will be possible.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-01-05

[Another Kent clipper]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-01-05

It sounds like a very messy and squally day.  Very british weather but I'll take a rumble of thunder

[Super_Uwe]

WOW! Huge flash of lightning and shotgun thunder about 3 seconds after. Came out of nowhere (we are in Kingsbridge). Wife just texted me to say the power has been knocked out at work.

[Super_Uwe]

Also 30 seconds of hail about 1-2cm in size! Saw nothing of the sort in summer lol!

[Mapantz]

This is usually something I'd see in summer..

[Dangerous55019]

A very stormy looking afternoon here, although it amounted to nothing more than a few little spots of rain.

This photo really doesn’t do justice to the size of the towers going up over towards Liverpool at the moment.

If only this was happening later on in the year we could be on for a good evening of thunderstorms. 

[matt111]

A couple of pictures from about 45 minutes ago. 

[Dangerous55019]

Looks like there has been a lightning strike just off the coast of Blackpool! Can anyone confirm this?