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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 16 Sep 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sun 17 Sep 2017

ISSUED 18:52 UTC Fri 15 Sep 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Longwave trough over western Europe and associated cool airmass / steep mid-level lapse rates will result in yet another showery day across the British Isles. Instability of just a few hundred Jkg-1 CAPE is marginal, and profiles exhibit tall but skinny CAPE, suggesting lightning activity is unlikely to be too widespread nor frequent. However, areas of low-level convergence can aid in forced ascent and may become the focus for lightning activity - this seems most likely along southern coastal counties where elements of sea breeze convergence may allow a line of heavy showers or weakly-electrified thunderstorms to develop, though the exact placement is a little uncertain with perhaps the showers peaking in intensity (and hence lightning probability) as they move offshore to the English Channel during the second half of the afternoon. For now, no SLGT has been issued but one may be required if confidence improves. The English Channel then providing the main focus for any lightning potential on Saturday night. Hail to 1.5cm and a few funnel clouds will be possible.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-09-16

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Some convective sky's i took on Wednesday evening on Filey brigg looking north,then produced a few flashes of lightning when it went way out into the north sea at around 1am.

DSC01633.thumb.JPG.af4c56f0b2130234ef0427f6712ba50b.JPGDSC01634.thumb.JPG.5ec93f7c1e6941d63854fdc525814ce3.JPGDSC01635.thumb.JPG.0d76b7aa66b5ad66260435f35a5e03a6.JPGDSC01641.thumb.JPG.2df3d2a97b6e304a3b4090880efcc778.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Nice little storm in the Channel now. Just need to find a way to put it in reverse so it heads towards us rather than France. :pardon:

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Arrrgh I missed a channel lightning show!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

The NetWx-SR is going for a lot of convergence zones tomorrow, with a nice one running along Southern counties- near the coast. Hoping for a few hits tomorrow, somehow I missed the best action today.

viewimage.thumb.png.6109a1e4db5c8c57c105e407e39b2c2c.png

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6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The NetWx-SR is going for a lot of convergence zones tomorrow, with a nice one running along Southern counties- near the coast. Hoping for a few hits tomorrow, somehow I missed the best action today.

viewimage.thumb.png.6109a1e4db5c8c57c105e407e39b2c2c.png

Looks perfect for a Pembrokeshire dangler ,mumspantz ,sorry I mean a brown wille ,lol

Edited by Mokidugway
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

As Nick F says in his forecast this morning,a good day for rainbows:)

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DSC01671.thumb.JPG.f47f935b796001c898d986d4ee3c6181.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

While out looking at the stars and a little drunk, I saw a few dim flashes to my southeast so there must still be lightning going on somewhere.

Heat lightning I think its called, where the storm is too far away for any thunder to be heard but lightning can still be seen for hundreds of miles as its clear and darker than daytime.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
Just now, biddie said:

Plenty of storms crossing the channel right now

Thats got to be the cause of the dim flashes I saw to my southeast while out looking at the stars a little drunk then.:D

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
10 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

While out looking at the stars and a little drunk, I saw a few dim flashes to my southeast so there must still be lightning going on somewhere.

Heat lightning I think its called, where the storm is too far away for any thunder to be heard but lightning can still be seen for hundreds of miles as its clear and darker than daytime.:)

Certainly is hundreds of miles if it's coming from these. 

Capture4.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Llandysul, Wales SA44 SA39 550 ft work 650 ft sleep 7.5 shrivelled sheep. Never mind the borax. Spatulas/spoons from just 7 quid, chopping boards from 18 quid, boxes from 45 quid or so for a OK one, bigger stuff costs more obviously
  • Location: Llandysul, Wales SA44 SA39 550 ft work 650 ft sleep 7.5 shrivelled sheep. Never mind the borax. Spatulas/spoons from just 7 quid, chopping boards from 18 quid, boxes from 45 quid or so for a OK one, bigger stuff costs more obviously

Very wet and messy around here this morning. As amok says Pembs dangler train but thru Ceredigion, another train of showers threatening Pembrokeshire at the moment.  No Meto warning though!  Must have been quite some PWAT today. I never knew.

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Posted
  • Location: Llandysul, Wales SA44 SA39 550 ft work 650 ft sleep 7.5 shrivelled sheep. Never mind the borax. Spatulas/spoons from just 7 quid, chopping boards from 18 quid, boxes from 45 quid or so for a OK one, bigger stuff costs more obviously
  • Location: Llandysul, Wales SA44 SA39 550 ft work 650 ft sleep 7.5 shrivelled sheep. Never mind the borax. Spatulas/spoons from just 7 quid, chopping boards from 18 quid, boxes from 45 quid or so for a OK one, bigger stuff costs more obviously
6 hours ago, mike57 said:

My wife took these pictures yesterday at home, we had heavy showers in the area. My question, is it the start of a funnel cloud? There was not thunderstorms in the area as far as I know. (I was on my way back from Preston)

 

20170914_193140.jpg

20170914_193134.jpg

Dramatic.  I saw similar, (not as impressive), but lots of rain earlier in the year.  Whole lot was slowly rotating, going nowhere.  I expected a funnel any moment - never got one.  My guess is yes, a funnel trying to form.  Someonebody will come along now and call it  'scud'.

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

Just had a light to moderate shower come through here but its quite cloudy in general.

Not sure if thundery activity is suppose to be more limited today compared to yesterday, but there are definitely some clouds trying to reach a high altitude.

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Heavy shower not long ago but no thunder so far. Rainbow just about visible over the houses. 

IMG_0910.JPG

Edited by matt111
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

I was outside, and heard some thunder. Seems like it was only a one-off though, as it died near beachy head (I'm in bexhill currently). Aside from that, there has been some impressive convective skies, with beefy loooking CBs. I also felt some outflow from a weakening shower with a ragged anvil.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

I was outside, and heard some thunder. Seems like it was only a one-off though, as it died near beachy head (I'm in bexhill currently). Aside from that, there has been some impressive convective skies, with beefy loooking CBs. I also felt some outflow from a weakening shower with a ragged anvil.

I don't think I've ever seen such intense rain/hail without hearing a single rumble of thunder? If it's somehow related to lack of charge separation (I guess it must be?) I hope Nick F can shed some light?:cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Very heavy rain with hail in Daventry, then after 15 minutes,  a single clap of thunder overhead!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

Looks like some people have had some rumbles of thunder now, wonder if anything will occur here again like it did yesterday evening.

There are definitely some cumulonimbus clouds about here, but whether they are well formed enough to produce lightning is yet to be seen.

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Watch the one around Northampton, has been back building and getting heavier in the last 30 minutes. Headed directly south

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

Just had two fairly close rumbles of thunder here under light to moderate showers.

I saw the lightning to the second rumble of thunder which came from a shower to the west which looked intra-cloud. Thing is there hasn't been anymore for a while now so a lot of these clouds must not be well formed enough to produce actual thunderstorms, just enough to produce the odd rumble of thunder.

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