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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
1 hour ago, Windblade said:

Squall line is travelling very fast and developing nicely (getting heavier). Just about to cross the southwestern m25 border and headed straight for me. Would love to see what it actually looks like at this stage. Now all we need is a little energon, and a lot of luck. :rolleyes:

Sorry, I missed a page of posts and see somebody else gave a much clearer explanation why it isn't a squall line!

Edited by Frosty hollows
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 23 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 24 Aug 2017

ISSUED 19:23 UTC Tue 22 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough will continue to destabilise the Theta-E plume on Wednesday as a cold front moves gradually eastwards across the British Isles. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the forecast period, embedded within general areas of rain across Scotland (rapidly weakening through the morning) while more scattered farther south towards the Midlands. Most models are in reasonable agreement for a cluster or line of (primarily elevated) thunderstorms along the Theta-E ridge to drift eastwards across northern England during the morning hours, exiting to the North Sea by early afternoon - though perhaps lingering over or close to Aberdeenshire into the afternoon. Forcing reduces farther south, and so thunderstorm potential becomes much lower - but an isolated thunderstorm could not be ruled out as far south as London, though in reality most activity will be generally north of The Wash. Main risk will be localised flooding from torrential downpours.

A few showers (or isolated thunderstorms) could form behind the main front over Scotland during the afternoon, but in general profiles in the post-frontal environment will be fairly capped, away from Ireland where an approaching trough axis will introduce cooler air aloft and increasingly steep lapse rates. Scattered heavy showers are likely, perhaps weakly-electrified though for much of the day rather stunted in vertical development somewhat. Deeper instability then arrives overnight here, fringing into western Scotland by dawn Friday, though too late for the diurnal cycle and so by this stage much more reliant on SSTs to generate deep convection.
 
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

i'm still not in any of CW's risk zones... :(

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

I'll go with the local forecast which is for zilch and has been right 99% of the time this year.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

ello, distant lightning spotted to my SE, ...basingstoke way?

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

yup, lightning detector confirms.....visible from 50 miles away here

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

Along with the sferic activity, large rainfall rates ongoing across Northern Ireland...

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Lots of sferics on the radio from the stuff in the Irish Sea. The area seems to be moving east slowly to me. 

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Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Unexpected gusts of wind, and cumulus clouds in rude and amusing shapes.
  • Location: Basingstoke, Hants
8 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

ello, distant lightning spotted to my SE, ...basingstoke way?

Yep, can confirm that. A couple of distant flashes accompanying a band of rain that just moved through. Nothing too interesting though.

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
1 hour ago, Frosty hollows said:

Sorry, I missed a page of posts and see somebody else gave a much clearer explanation why it isn't a squall line!

Thats ok. Yeah, I think in my despiration I was just looking for stuff that wasn't there. Just had a nice, convective shower pass through. Big convective drops, really enjoyed listening to it. Another line of small, but heavy showers is a little way behind it so got that to look forward to as well. Love the sound of rain at night.

Edit - line of heavy showers behind produced sparks according to lightningmaps (not showing on netweather radar for some reason), so as that appears to be a line of storms I'm calling it, it's a squall line (by definition)! 

 

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: Gravesend, Kent
  • Location: Gravesend, Kent

Sudden flash of lightning and loud thunder in Gravesend... can't say I was expecting that given it's only been lightly spitting with rain.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
1 minute ago, afcone said:

Sudden flash of lightning and loud thunder in Gravesend... can't say I was expecting that given it's only been lightly spitting with rain.

Exactly the same here - can't believe how bright it was. Very powerful distant continuous peel of thunder too. Wasn't expecting it at all, even though it has been insanely humid today

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and anything unusual
  • Location: Edinburgh

I’ll be content with distant flashes of lightning tonight, just something to tide me over till next year.

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
2 minutes ago, afcone said:

Sudden flash of lightning and loud thunder in Gravesend... can't say I was expecting that given it's only been lightly spitting with rain.

Can confirm, I just heard a distant boom of thunder. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex

Thunder being reported in Gravesend and Rochester on twitter, neither of which are too far as the crow flies. 

Haven't heard anything yet, but will keep an ear out...

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Nothing vaguely impressive looking on radar either. Talk about a bolt from the blue.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Just now, Windblade said:

Can confirm, I just heard a distant boom of thunder. :)

Interesting, when its not been picked up on the RTL radar. Guessing these are the elevated Thunderstorms building up? With this line of Rain stretching out to Derby?

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex

Possibly just heard a distant rumble but can't be 100% sure...

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
4 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Interesting, when its not been picked up on the RTL radar. Guessing these are the elevated Thunderstorms building up? With this line of Rain stretching out to Derby?

Not showing on lightningmaps either now but definitely heard it, and another faint peel as I'm writing this. I think it could be coming from that line of heavy showers that passed through a short while ago. It was moving east which tallies with the other reports. Looks like it did develop after all.

Edited by Windblade
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