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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards


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1 minute ago, GlennP2 said:

Hi all.

Interesting clouds around all afternoon here on the East coast but only distant thunder heard out to sea where the sky was very dark.  Looking towards Grimsby looks interesting at the moment though. Plus a pic from a few hours ago of something trying to form....

Regards Glenn 

20170818_202507.jpg

20170818_202447.jpg

20170818_175726.jpg

Wow bottom cumulonimbus looks like it's on steroids :shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 19 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sun 20 Aug 2017

ISSUED 20:10 UTC Fri 18 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Large upper trough will slowly migrate away from the British Isles across the North Sea, allowing profiles to stabilise from the southwest. However, residual instability close to the upper trough will still exist in northern and eastern Britain, with some sporadic / isolated lightning possible from scattered showers. If any lightning does occur, it is most likely over NE Scotland and the Northern Isles - here, some small hail will be possible.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-19

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
3 hours ago, Mokidugway said:

Nice errr .....anvils :closedeyes:

Evening @Mokidugway :laugh:

There were loads of decaying fibreous anvils around this evening... Nothing big... Just small singing cell ones... And yes I did get more thunder from them too as well. :D

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22 hours ago, GlennP2 said:

Hi all.

Interesting clouds around all afternoon here on the East coast but only distant thunder heard out to sea where the sky was very dark.  Looking towards Grimsby looks interesting at the moment though. Plus a pic from a few hours ago of something trying to form....

Regards Glenn 

20170818_202507.jpg

20170818_202447.jpg

20170818_175726.jpg

Hi, I'm new here. But I noticed your photos at once. The clouds have their own magic. I would like to go there. Take a picture of this beauty.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
45 minutes ago, Estona said:

Hi, I'm new here. But I noticed your photos at once. The clouds have their own magic. I would like to go there. Take a picture of this beauty.

Welcome to the community! :)

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
On ‎18‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 16:04, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Probably straight-line winds associated with a squally system of heavy showers.  We had a few flashes and bangs around 45 minutes ago from a cell which was weakly electrified for a while.

I wouldn't be too quick to rule out a tornado or gustnado from the events West Sussex Kate described. Without more evidence it's impossible to say either way.

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
On ‎18‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 20:34, GlennP2 said:

Hi all.

Interesting clouds around all afternoon here on the East coast but only distant thunder heard out to sea where the sky was very dark.  Looking towards Grimsby looks interesting at the moment though. Plus a pic from a few hours ago of something trying to form....

Regards Glenn 

20170818_202507.jpg

20170818_202447.jpg

20170818_175726.jpg

That bottom pic...wow. Incredible cb. 

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 20 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 21 Aug 2017

ISSUED 20:17 UTC Sat 19 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Approaching Atlantic frontal system on Sunday, containing the remnants of Hurricane Gert, will be characterised by advection of a high WBPT airmass northeastwards across Ireland and western Britain. Very moist low- and mid-levels with saturated profiles will result in marginal instability and a very low risk of lightning, but some forcing aloft could release some elevated instability capable of producing some isolated / sporadic lightning - this perhaps more likely over the Republic of Ireland / Northern Ireland during the evening and/or overnight, though in reality very little (if any) may occur. Main risk would be from localised flooding from any heavy downpours courtesy of embedded convective elements.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-20

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

 

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 21 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 22 Aug 2017

ISSUED 20:45 UTC Sun 20 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Another day with very moist low- and mid-levels with saturated profiles resulting in marginal instability and a very low risk of lightning, but some forcing aloft could release some elevated instability capable of producing some isolated / sporadic lightning - this perhaps most likely over the Republic of Ireland / Northern Ireland, though in reality very little (if any) may occur. Main risk would be from localised flooding from any heavy downpours courtesy of embedded convective elements. Chance of some surface-based convection developing late afternoon / early evening within the warm sector should any sufficient gaps in the cloud cover develop over Ireland - given some decent shear, very low cloud bases and backed surface winds, this could produce a tornado (but is considered a very low probability of occurring).

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-21

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Any thoughts about tomorrow?

The GFS looks quite interesting, with some activity over the spine of the country, intensifying the further north you go.

The 0z Euro 4 is not as exciting, as it keeps the action in the Irish sea.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes certainly scope Karyo looking at Cape values. 

ukcapeli.thumb.png.06273a33fd851ede5c739162548614ff.png

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Maybe the last main action of the Summer? And we could be in the firing line here......................

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Looks brilliant on GFS and the perfect wind direction for our region, but Meto not that interested although have a feeling they may come onboard tomorrow. Reminds me a bit of 19th May 2014 with instability moving east during the day but cells moving nnw. @Dangerous55019  might be worth us keeping an eye on this as if things go right it has the potential to be good for our areas. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
16 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes certainly scope Karyo looking at Cape values. 

ukcapeli.thumb.png.06273a33fd851ede5c739162548614ff.png

Fingers crossed! I want to see the euro 4 coming on board later.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
20 minutes ago, NUT said:

Maybe the last main action of the Summer? And we could be in the firing line here......................

The gfs keeps the UK under slack low pressure for several days (including the weekend) so more chances down the line.

The UKMO is dry and uneventful for later in the week.

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent

I was wondering the same. With two days of hot and humid air drawn up from the continent is there a possibility of storms in the southeast where it will be the hottest/most humid? How much uncertainty is there in the forecast right now?

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
35 minutes ago, Windblade said:

I was wondering the same. With two days of hot and humid air drawn up from the continent is there a possibility of storms in the southeast where it will be the hottest/most humid? How much uncertainty is there in the forecast right now?

The southeast is not in the at risk areas.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The 6z euro 4 looks a bit more promising than the earlier run. It shows some activity breaking out across northwest England tomorrow night and then spreading northeast. 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Meto really not on board now, it's like they're seeing everything completely differently. 

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
6 hours ago, karyo said:

The southeast is not in the at risk areas.

 

Yeah, I saw that on the charts, but what I'm trying to say is I'm questioning their accuracy at this stage and also with that hot humid air being drawn up from france is it at all likely we could get some imports (these wouldn't show on uk only models) should anything kick off?

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
4 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Yeah, I saw that on the charts, but what I'm trying to say is I'm questioning their accuracy at this stage and also with that hot humid air being drawn up from france is it at all likely we could get some imports (these wouldn't show on uk only models) should anything kick off?

Would not surprise me if things might be capped down here, still guess we'll see in the wash as they say.

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
10 hours ago, NUT said:

Maybe the last main action of the Summer? And we could be in the firing line here......................

Evening @NUT , do you not remember September last year? :)

10 hours ago, Chris.R said:

 Looks brilliant on GFS and the perfect wind direction for our region, but Meto not that interested although have a feeling they may come onboard tomorrow. Reminds me a bit of 19th May 2014 with instability moving east during the day but cells moving nnw. @Dangerous55019  might be worth us keeping an eye on this as if things go right it has the potential to be good for our areas. 

Evening @Chris.R :)
I reckon that its more than worth keeping an eye on, as there is some pretty good Cape and LI values:good:
As always with storms a lot of this comes down to nowcasting on the day... But as long as this grey crud from today clears... :bomb:
Well, at the very least we should see some beautiful convective cloudscapes. :D
I've included screen grabs from todays 12z run on the GFS... I'll have a look and post up whats showing tomorrow morning.

Screenshot (144).png

Screenshot (145).png

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