Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

[LightningLover]

is it just me, or is it curving NW wards? (that might just be wishful thinking)

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Skies tonight looked wonderfully convective in an elevated way. Nothing forecasted tho - but wondering if we are getting the remains leftover from French storms yesterday?

[Windblade]

Tuesday looking stormy for my area on netweathers 7 day forecast but unsure where this data has come from (I don't know of many sites that have storm forecasts that far ahead - if anyone can share some links I 'd be really grateful)?

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 14 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 15 Aug 2017

ISSUED 21:00 UTC Sun 13 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Chris

A complex frontal system will move out of Ireland into western and central parts of Britain during the day and overnight. There is a signal for a split-cold front in the warm sector ahead of the main surface front, and this could aid in the development of embedded convection within the larger-scale frontal rain. In turn a broad isolated  area has been created with the lightning risk translating north and eastwards through the zone during Monday and Monday night. It should also be noted cold air advection aloft may help to generate some post-frontal convection across western and central Ireland later in the afternoon and this could produce some small isolated convective cells with the potential of a few lightning strikes and perhaps some small hail. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-14

[Another Kent clipper]

East Anglia is missed out for once.  Unless the map is inverted of course

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 14 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 15 Aug 2017

ISSUED 21:00 UTC Sun 13 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Chris

A complex frontal system will move out of Ireland into western and central parts of Britain during the day and overnight. There is a signal for a split-cold front in the warm sector ahead of the main surface front, and this could aid in the development of embedded convection within the larger-scale frontal rain. In turn a broad isolated  area has been created with the lightning risk translating north and eastwards through the zone during Monday and Monday night. It should also be noted cold air advection aloft may help to generate some post-frontal convection across western and central Ireland later in the afternoon and this could produce some small isolated convective cells with the potential of a few lightning strikes and perhaps some small hail. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-14

Yes I noticed that the GFS is quite keen for some convective potential towards the western side of the UK overnight tomorrow. 

[Summer Sun]

12 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 14 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 15 Aug 2017

ISSUED 21:00 UTC Sun 13 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Chris

A complex frontal system will move out of Ireland into western and central parts of Britain during the day and overnight. There is a signal for a split-cold front in the warm sector ahead of the main surface front, and this could aid in the development of embedded convection within the larger-scale frontal rain. In turn a broad isolated  area has been created with the lightning risk translating north and eastwards through the zone during Monday and Monday night. It should also be noted cold air advection aloft may help to generate some post-frontal convection across western and central Ireland later in the afternoon and this could produce some small isolated convective cells with the potential of a few lightning strikes and perhaps some small hail. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-14

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 14 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 15 Aug 2017

ISSUED 08:49 UTC Mon 14 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

UPDATE 08:49 UTC SLGT introduced to Channel Islands and SE England given risk of medium-level instability release during early hours of Tuesday morning as approaching upper trough engages with plume over France. Embedded lightning also possible within frontal zone from SW England / Wales late Monday afternoon/early evening, migrating NE-wards through the evening and night across Midlands - N England - S/SE Scotland, but confidence and coverage not high enough to warrant an upgrade for now...

[LightningLover]

Mid level release, huh? is it worth staying up for? (thunderstorm wise)

[tomp456]

 

 

[Paul]

In case anyone missed it, Nick issued a storm forecast earlier:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Certainly all looking quite lively on the netwx model this evening and overnight. 

(animated if you click to view full size)

[Raidan]

Would be nice to get a storm tonight but it will just be rain and with the way the weather is around here I think it will be along time before there's a thunderstorm.

[Nick F]

Chance of a few rumbles of thunder in the heavy pulses of rain spreading N and E across northern UK tonight, then later in the night a risk of some elevated storms spreading NE across parts of SE England.

The overnight thundery rain clearing first thing to sunshine and showers for Tuesday, greatest chance for thunder likely to be Scotland along with northern and eastern parts of England.

My latest storm forecast below. Day 1 covers tonight until 6am, day 2 cover Tuesday 6am until Wednesday 6am.

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2017-08-14 22:07:17
Valid: DAY 1: 14/08/17 22z to 15/08/17 06z. DAY 2: 15/08/17 06z to 16/08/17 06z

Days 1 & 2 Convective / Storm Forecast

Synopsis

Monday (Day 1): Upper trough slides in from the west across western Britain on Monday, with an area of low pressure  to the West of Scotland driving a cold slowly east across northern and western areas. Heavy showers with isolated thunder will affect Ireland and N. Ireland along the cold front, then later waves moving NE along the cold front further east may produce some isolated thunder embedded in pulses of heavy rain moving NE across Wales, N England and Scotland overnight. Towards SE England, a seperate area of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms may develop and spread NE ahead of cold front moving east.

Tuesday (Day 2): Following cold front clearing eastern areas in the morning will be followed by an unstable W to SWly flow as upper trough begins to move in across the UK aloft. So scattered heavy showers and some thunderstorms are likely - more especially across northern and western areas.

DAY 1 DISCUSSION ... UNTIL 6AM TUESDAY 15TH AUG

... IRELAND and N. IRELAND, SW ENGLAND, WALES, N ENGLAND, SCOTLAND  ...

Conveyor of warm moist air ahead of cold front and steepening lapse rates from the west with approaching upper trough will allow embedded convection near or along cold front moving in from west where lift will be enhanced by waves developing and moving NE along it. Convection may become deep enough to produce isolated thunder and locally high enough rainfall to produce localised flooding.

... SE ENGLAND ...

Plume of richer moisture over France, characterised by steep lapse rates and advecting NE, may produce deep enough convection for some isolated thunder and heavy rain leading to localised flooding tonight, as mid-level warm moist air advection destabilises with approach of upper trough from the west.

DAY 2 DISCUSSION ... 6AM TUES 15TH AUG UNTIL 6AM WEDS 16TH AUG

... SCOTLAND, N and E ENGLAND ...

Models indicate lapse rates will be steepest across northern and eastern UK - where coldest mid-level temperatures of the trough axis moving east will be during peak heating in the afternoon. Surface heating in the sunny spells and cold temperatures aloft will support the development of scattered heavy showers and some thunderstorms. No severe weather is anticipated, given weak vertical shear and modest temperatures/moisture profiles ... any storms may produce small hail and a localised risk of minor flooding. Showers/storms should quickly fade after dark, as surface heating wanes.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Edited August 14, 2017 by Nick F

[Convective]

Powerful cells breaking out just across the Channel. 

[LightningLover]

8 minutes ago, Convective said:

Powerful cells breaking out just across the Channel. 

Yep, keeping an eye on on those!

[alexisj9]

Look quite lively at the moment, not expecting anything like the end of may though.

[LightningLover]

16 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Look quite lively at the moment, not expecting anything like the end of may though.

What do you think? is a good night-time channel show likely?

[alexisj9]

13 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

What do you think? is a good night-time channel show likely?

I don't know lol. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Kent clipper on the way. Almost the exact path of that monster back in early June. Could be a good show for some out in the channel very soon. 

[LightningLover]

I don't even think the lightning was forecast to be this prolific. Surely ConvectiveWeather would have issued a MDT? (rather than the slight)

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

I don't even think the lightning was forecast to be this prolific. Surely ConvectiveWeather would have issued a MDT? (rather than the slight)

 

Not at all! 

This may catch a few people out shortly with an awakening! Was very surprised to see this amount of lightning pinging away on the usual check on blitzortung! 

Might get the Bognor or Hastings cam up in a minute.

Edited August 15, 2017 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Julian 777]

8 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Kent clipper on the way. Almost the exact path of that monster back in early June. Could be a good show for some out in the channel very soon. 

lightning seen from  near Brighton distant thunder heard...

[LightningLover]

2 minutes ago, Jules777 said:

lightning seen from  near Brighton distant thunder heard...

AARRRGHHH too many trees, and I cant even be bothered to go to the seafront... 

[Julian 777]

5 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

I don't even think the lightning was forecast to be this prolific. Surely ConvectiveWeather would have issued a MDT? (rather than the slight)

 

can see the lightning now ...its going mental over the sea

 

[alexisj9]

Can see distant flashes in dover now.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Brighton pier cam is the one to watch right now, regular flashing on there!