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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards


Supacell

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 05 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sun 06 Aug 2017

ISSUED 21:35 UTC Fri 04 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

A marked mid-level shortwave, and accompanying steep mid-level lapse rates, will slide east from Wales across the Midlands to East Anglia through the day, providing the main focus for areas of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms. This complicated somewhat by layered cloud and elements of perhaps some dynamic precipitation which casts some uncertainty over how widespread lightning activity may be. Nonetheless, a broad low-end SLGT has been issued. Some hail to 1.5cm in diameter and gusty winds will be possible with this activity, and perhaps a weak tornado. A little uncertainty as to the exact track of this feature, which might require some slight tweaks to the northern and southern boundary of the SLGT area.

Elsewhere, scattered showers could produce some isolated lightning, perhaps most likely in the eastern Scottish Borders - but confidence not high enough for a SLGT here.
 
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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Hot
  • Location: London
34 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A little uncertainty as to the exact track of this feature, which might require some slight tweaks to the northern and southern boundary of the SLGT 

 

when you make your tweaks could you please extend the slight to cover Manchester?  I promise I won't moan too much if it doesn't come to fruition ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Llandysul, Wales SA44 SA39 550 ft work 650 ft sleep 7.5 shrivelled sheep. Never mind the borax. Spatulas/spoons from just 7 quid, chopping boards from 18 quid, boxes from 45 quid or so for a OK one, bigger stuff costs more obviously
  • Location: Llandysul, Wales SA44 SA39 550 ft work 650 ft sleep 7.5 shrivelled sheep. Never mind the borax. Spatulas/spoons from just 7 quid, chopping boards from 18 quid, boxes from 45 quid or so for a OK one, bigger stuff costs more obviously

I've put all my pants out on the line, on the storm octopus.  Yellow at the front, brown at the back.  Everything crossed...

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

A thunderstorm to the east of Aberystwyth currently, and it's only 9am. Looks like it could be a good day for a few thunderstorms today considering the promising start. It was clear blue skies and sunshine here an hour ago but now we have some big clouds developing to the south-west. 

Nick F has released a convective forecast for today.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=0.347880461110861

My fingers are crossed for a storm close to home as I cannot chase far today.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Supacell said:

A thunderstorm to the east of Aberystwyth currently, and it's only 9am. Looks like it could be a good day for a few thunderstorms today considering the promising start. It was clear blue skies and sunshine here an hour ago but now we have some big clouds developing to the south-west. 

Nick F has released a convective forecast for today.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=0.347880461110861

My fingers are crossed for a storm close to home as I cannot chase far today.

 

 

Already had a very heavy pass through here at 5am which I was surprised good to see stuff on radar already, sun out here warming things up 

Edit : just stepped out the back door, nice! 

 

DSC_0439.JPG

Edited by Surrey
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Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

Looks like there will be some torrential downpours in places today but looking very isolated and spotty, but i wouldn't be surprised to see some local flooding and hail from these storms could be nasty for some

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Today doesn't look too bad! Already a few lightning strikes around!

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
16 hours ago, Supacell said:

Hey Windblade, thank you :)

I have just watched the video back of the storm near the Humber and I think the first is just scud, it doesn't drop any further than on these pictures and the general behaviour was more like scud than a funnel. If it was a funnel it was a long away off and too far to really get a good view on from where I was. However, the storm I was watching was quite intense on the radar. No rotation evident though, so I would say most likely scud.

The second picture though is almost certainly a wall cloud. Nothing more happened with it though unfortunately.

@Jasper Foxx, my initial thought is that they look like scud. However, seeing it moving would help determine. If there was rotation evident and it was formed out of the base of the storm cloud then it is likely it was a ragged looking funnel. If it was dropping and undulating below the base of the cloud and with no visible rotation then it was almost certainly scud.

Hey Supacell,

That's cool. Sometimes it's hard to tell from, a distance as you say. I think Jasper Foxx's cloud could indeed be a funnel (I'm a tornado optimist!) as the second pic looks quite tight in a rope like fashion particularly and is very similar to the funnel cloud I spotted a couple of months back, but as you said it is hard to tell from the pictures and we really need to see if it was rotating or not to get a better idea.

I've been in Dorset the past few days (in Gillingham) staying with a friend (last day there today) and we have been going out on our motorbikes and have seen quite a few "scudnados" here! Certainly some interesting/impressive shapes in the clouds and as the area is mostly flat and not very built up you can see in all directions for miles. We could get something today (of course, me and my friend will get a bit wet on our bikes but it would be worth it to see a good storm) including a weak tornado according got convective weather (thanks Summer Sun for posting the convective weather forecast). :shok:

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Already been some thunder across parts of Wales and SW England, more recently over Gloucestershire/south Worcs/west Oxon

lightning.thumb.PNG.8cbea0c40f241c056d3a472878af5af3.PNG0930a.thumb.PNG.5ae5be34c2c8b2db21114ee89915febc.PNG

 

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_050817.thumb.png.4dcf777a8f91d26e72a86d0f05eba19d.png

Issued 2017-08-05 06:47:51
Valid: 05/08/2017 06z to 06/08/2017 06z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - SATURDAY 5TH AUGUST 2017

Synopsis

A strong belt of upper westerlies will cover northern Europe on Saturday, with an upper trough embedded in this flow crossing west to east across the UK. An unstable showery airmass will cover the UK, with a risk of scattered non-severe thunderstorms across southern Britain.

... E IRELAND, WALES, CENTRAL and SOUTHERN ENGLAND ...

Diurnal surface heating beneath increasingly cold mid-level temperatures associated with upper trough moving east will create steep lapse rates and a modestly unstable airmass across the above areas - yielding around 300-500 j/kg CAPE. As a result, scattered showers this morning will turn increasingly heavy and more widespread across central and southern areas of England and Wales through the day, as lift from upper trough combined with increasing surface temperatures increases instability. Hail and occasional thunder is likely to accompany heaviest showers spreading east. Across S England - 30-40knts of deep layer shear towards strong jet stream and local wind convergence may organise showers/storms into clusters that may bring an isolated risk of surface water flooding. However, no severe weather is anticipated, given modest instability / shear.

... SE/E SCOTLAND ...

Heavy showers developing or moving in across here may turn thundery this afternoon, with a risk of hail and localised flooding. Weak vertical shear will mean severe weather is unlikely

Issued by: Nick Finnis

 

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
4 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Hey Supacell,

That's cool. Sometimes it's hard to tell from, a distance as you say. I think Jasper Foxx's cloud could indeed be a funnel (I'm a tornado optimist!) as the second pic looks quite tight in a rope like fashion particularly and is very similar to the funnel cloud I spotted a couple of months back, but as you said it is hard to tell from the pictures and we really need to see if it was rotating or not to get a better idea.

I've been in Dorset the past few days staying with a friend (last day there today) and we have been going out on our motorbikes and have seen quite a few "scudnados" here! Certainly some interesting/impressive shapes in the clouds and as the area is mostly flat and not very built up you can see in all directions for miles. We could get something today (of course, me and my friend will get a bit wet on our bikes but it would be worth it to see a good storm) including a weak tornado! :shok:

Good luck for today. Maybe a repeat of this from 4 days ago off the coast of Dorset :)

 

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
1 minute ago, Supacell said:

Good luck for today. Maybe a repeat of this from 4 days ago off the coast of Dorset :)

 

Incredible!

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent

capture.thumb.jpg.405ad5191f876fc34c2d055f1c67408f.jpg

Sparks heading straight towards me! Come on! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

It would appear that any thundery activity is staying Birmingham and southwards. A nice storm currently going on in the Cotswolds heading in the direction of Oxford. 

EDIT: Oxfordshire storm really spitting out sferics now!

Edited by Supacell
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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent

The yeovil storm appears to have died on radar. :cray:

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

Caught in torrential rain while out walking the dog here. A couple of rolls of thunder as it moved away. Raining again now.

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

The one near Kidderminster is starting to get quite lively.

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Very big shower's just erupted out of nothing here where I am

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Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon

Haha, I was lying in the sunshine reading about 15 mins ago, sweltering hot, wondering if I should find some shade, got up to move and saw the monster thunderstorm approaching fast, got all the washing in quick and heard lots of thunder but saw no flashes sadly. Loadsa rain, all pretty much gone past now I think. Nice one though!

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

Thunder in Halesowen:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Russells Hall, Dudley, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, hot sunshine and snowstorms
  • Location: Russells Hall, Dudley, West Midlands

Well it appears to be thundering here. First time this year. Yay!! 

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