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August 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

15.6c here to the 7th, 0.1c below the 1981-2010 average.

Few chilly days coming up so we should see it drop below average again.

Does anybody know where I can find the rolling average for the CET throughout each month?

Many thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

15.8 to the 7th

0.2 below the 61 to 90 average

1.2 below the 81 to 10 average

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
3 hours ago, vizzy2004 said:

15.6c here to the 7th, 0.1c below the 1981-2010 average.

Few chilly days coming up so we should see it drop below average again.

Does anybody know where I can find the rolling average for the CET throughout each month?

Many thanks.

The only place I know with the rolling averages for the 12 months (1981-2010) would be here in these threads when I post them along with record values. You would need to look at the last twelve contest threads to find these, and look around the 2nd of each month after most of the entries are in. I have already posted August values. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
49 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

The only place I know with the rolling averages for the 12 months (1981-2010) would be here in these threads when I post them along with record values. You would need to look at the last twelve contest threads to find these, and look around the 2nd of each month after most of the entries are in. I have already posted August values. 

Cheers Roger, I will try to use these to work out a rolling average for my location. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
5 hours ago, vizzy2004 said:

15.6c here to the 7th, 0.1c below the 1981-2010 average.

Few chilly days coming up so we should see it drop below average again.

Does anybody know where I can find the rolling average for the CET throughout each month?

Many thanks.

Based on the rolling average my current August mean is 15.6c which is 0.5c below the 1981-2010 average.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield albeit not so sunny today still at 15.5C  -1.1C below normal and a bit drop tomorrow unless it gets warmer tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Vizzy2004, you will find that the rolling averages for 1981-2010 contain some quirks that are created by the occasional unbalanced nature of the 30 years that go into the period, these are not real features of the climate and a longer average removes them (or damps them down to almost nothing). 

So that being said and given the fact that your averages are probably based on a lot fewer years anyway, but including seven that are not in the baseline period, you can get the effect you want by estimating as follows:

First, take the cooling months (August to December) and start the rolling mean for each month on the value of the mean of the previous month. Then just take equal amounts per day through the cooling months. An example would be this, let's say your mean for September is 14.0 and for October 11.0, that's 3.0 deg of cooling and your running mean will work out to be 0.1 colder each day from 14.0 on 1st to 11.1 on 30th. 

December you might find a better result if you let the drops go at a faster rate 1st to 20th then slow them down.

January and July are months with the instantaneous extremes within them, so for these, you start at the mean of the previous month, end with the mean for January or July, but somewhere between (25th would be my choice) you blend in a more extreme value by 0.2 deg (if your January mean is 4.4, then make that 4.2).

Then that leaves the five warming months of February to June, for these you just reverse the process, starting with 0.1 higher than the previous month on day one, and ending up with your monthly mean on day 30 or 31 at the end. And in general these months can have a steady rise, it will be pretty close to 0.1 each day although more like every other day in February. 

That would save you all the work of looking up the rolling averages, and actually I think we should use those here because the values calculated from the data have those ups and downs that don't really tell us anything of a valid statistical nature, the 1961 to 1990 data used by the Met Office presumably have the same sort of quirks built in, I have never eyeballed the graphs of the two sets to find out if the quirks of each set have any relationship to those of the other set. If they do, and then they show up in similar data from the past, then maybe there's something significant about them, but if they are just random zigs and zags, they are probably just "noise" introduced by the fact that 30 years are not enough to smooth out the data to the point that 245 years will do. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I can't edit that above, but instead of making January and July the months with the extreme point, make them February and August with the extreme point maybe 0.1 lower than January by 10 February, and 0.2 higher than July by 07 August. Then start a regular increase after 10 Feb to the Feb mean, and a regular decrease in August to the August mean. January you can drop from the Dec mean to about the 25th then hold steady, and July you can increase slowly but pace it faster to the 25th. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Big drop in Sunny Sheffield down to 15C -1.6C below normal. Should go up over the weekend a bit unless the nights are cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Looking at the potential CET is the outlook bad enough that we can dip under 15C?

Personally i'd like to see sub 15.4C, if we are going below average then lets be 1C+ below.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Must admit I expected a drop after the shocking weather of yesterday!

The SE was only registering maximas of around 15c.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

16.1°C (-0.2) here, with very warm nights offsetting cool days. Despite a lovely day yesterday it was still cool with the max at 18.9°C.

For the month, the mean max is 19.4°C (0.0), and the mean min is 13.6°C (+0.4). 

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 14.9C -1.7C below average

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
19 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Looking at the potential CET is the outlook bad enough that we can dip under 15C?

Personally i'd like to see sub 15.4C, if we are going below average then lets be 1C+ below.

I honestly think its the type of setup  we could go below 15 which brings to mind 2014. That was going E QBO too.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
3 hours ago, Matthew. said:

I honestly think its the type of setup  we could go below 15 which brings to mind 2014. That was going E QBO too.

Just my opinion, but I think the cet will finish above 16, the last week/10 days will allow this, muggy warm nights and some warm days.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

15.0c here to the 9th, 1.0c below the 1981-2010 average.

Looking at BBC 5 day forecast not much change likely, maybe a slight rise.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

No change still at 14.9C -1.7C below normal. Rainfall already at the monthly end total so another wet month coming up.  August is the first of the cooling months so it's going to be interesting to see if we maintain the large negative anomaly or whether it decreases. If it stays the same it will effectively cancel out the warm June leading to an overall wet but average temperature summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Fairyl average/mild minima seems to be holding up the CET mean somewhat against persistantly below often well below average maxima, but in the countryside some low minima is being recorded.. so I remain a little dubious about the figures of recent days and expect some marked downward adjustments come months end. With the prospect of only near average means at best in the week ahead with some further chilly nights, there is a high chance August will end up be a colder than average month set against the 81-10 mean, and a high chance of coming in below 61-90 mean, lets see where we are in a weeks time, but the background set up doesn't look conducive to any sustained warmer than average period anytime soon.

Maxima this week has been dire, on Wednesday the warmest place was Glasgow at just 20 degrees... highly unusual and quite abnormal, given the average maxima at this time of year in the warmer part of the country - i.e. SE is about 23 degrees, so that is 3 degrees normal.

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Some others while Hadley is offline yet again

Metcheck 15.35c  -0.88c

Netweather 15.66c  -0.54c

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 14.9C -1.6C below normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
On 10/08/2017 at 21:02, DAVID SNOW said:

Just my opinion, but I think the cet will finish above 16, the last week/10 days will allow this, muggy warm nights and some warm days.

I can see it happening, simply because it would totally ruin any chance of getting an unusually cool August. Got to cram in as many sub-15C Augusts as we can, before it's too late!

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