August 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[BornFromTheVoid]

The current GFS has the CET finishing about 16.1C before corrections, peaking at 16.2C on the 29th. So a finish of somewhere between 15.6C and 16.2C after corrections is likely at this stage.

[Chris.R]

2 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I suppose that's because you're on the coast? We are prone to slightly lower temps here being in a valley and slight frost hollow. 

Yep, along with the occasional foehn effect. Mean min is  13.9°C. In winter this location is a slight frost holo though. :-) 

[Summer Sun]

15.9 to the 27th

0.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.7 below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15.2C -1.1C below normal. Big rise tomorrow then a fall until the end of the month. So 15.1C or 15.2C the likely finishing number.

[damianslaw]

Touch and go whether we end up below the 61-90 average this month, tomorrow will bring a rise probably to 16.0 degrees, then perhaps another rise Wednesday, to 16.1 degrees, then possibly a fall to 16.0 degrees, will depend on any corrections.. A very high chance we will end up bang on the average. Its been a very unvariable month temp wise, mins consistently just a little above average, maxes consistently a bit below.

A very uninteresting month, despite the anomaly of today - I'm surprised we haven't recorded a bank holiday with a max of 30 degrees.. a statistical quirk..

[Roger J Smith]

I mentioned the other day that the "month" from 21 July to 20 August was relatively cool, with an average that will probably be around 15.5 to 15.6 C. 

In the period 1981-2010 the average value for this period was 16.9 and for the period 1987-2016 it was 17.0.

The only years since 1981 that were colder than 15.6 for this 31-day period were:

14.8 _ 1986

15.2 _ 1985, 2007, 2015

15.4 _ 1993

15.5 _ 1987, 1988

Before 1981, the frequency of years this cool (for 21 July to 20 August) was about one in four. The coldest including all those colder than 1986 include:

13.4 _ 1845

13.7 _ 1812, 1912

13.8 _ 1860

13.9 _ 1920, 1922

14.0 _ 1816, 1823, 1841, 1902

14.1 _ 1888

14.2 _ 1810, 1817

14.3 _ 1848, 

14.4 _ 1839. 1881, 1930, 1954

14.5 _ 1799, 1866. 1883, 1924

14.6 _ 1784, 1891, 1960

14.7 _ 1836, 1862

_______________________________

The warmest four for this period were 1995 (19.9), 1911 (19.5) and 1975 tied with 1997 (19.0). 

[Summer Sun]

16.0 to the 28th

0.2 above the 61 to 90 average

0.5 below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15.4C the high of the month. -0.9C below normal. I reckon 15.2C will be the finish point for Sheffield.

[NorthYorksWeather]

15.9c here to the 28th, 0.3c above the 1981-2010 average.

A drop likely before months end but I think we will just remain above average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back down to 15.3 -1C below average 1981- 2010 and -0.8C 1971- 2000 and -0.2C 1961- 1990

[Summer Sun]

16.0 to the 29th

0.2 above the 61 to 90 average

0.5 below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Almost certain to finish on 15.9C before corrections. So somewhere in the region of 15.4 to 16.0C after corrections.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield to finish on 15.2C unless today is very cold or very warm which is unlikely.  So -1.1C below normal  -0.9C below the 1971 - 2010 average and -0.3C below the 1961- 1990

 

[Summer Sun]

16.0 to the 30th

0.2 above the 61 to 90 average

0.5 below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Barring a max of below 16.9C or above 23.0C, we should finish 15.9C before corrections. So something in the range of 15.4C to 16.0C after corrections are applied.

[damianslaw]

We might just end up with a bang on average 61-90 mean, when was the last time that happened? 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It's hard to get a below average month against the 1961-90 mean these days with all the global warming! I think it's best comparing with the 1981-10 averages.

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It's hard to get a below average month against the 1961-90 mean these days with all the global warming! I think it's best comparing with the 1981-10 averages.

Its become rare in the past few years, but we had a high batch of below average months in the 2007-2013 period. The last below average month against 61-90 mean was last November. What has become very rare are significantly below average months i.e. at least 1 degree below average.. we've had a few spectacular exceptions in Dec 2010 and March 2013 but those were odd anomalies, and it has been the summer months most likely to deliver such returns in the past years. Conversely we've had many months at least 1 degree above the mean, often 2 degrees above..and sometimes 3 degrees or more..

Edited August 31, 2017 by damianslaw

[NorthYorksWeather]

Finished 15.6c here which is 0.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

[Summer Sun]

August confirmed as 15.6

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

[Don]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

August confirmed as 15.6

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Second month in a row where I have been too high with my CET guess.  Would be great if I end up being too high for September as well but probably not!  August was the coolest month of the season correlating with a front loaded summer (for the southern half of the UK at least).

[Relativistic]

On 27/08/2017 at 13:27, Don said:

Chances of our first below average month of 2017 have well and truly gone out of the window now.

Ended up below all recent averages.

[DAVID SNOW]

13 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Ended up below all recent averages.

I too got it totally wrong.

[Daniel*]

A below average month been a rareity this year. 0.2 off my prediction if it was not for the chilly minima at the end of the month I may have been spot on. 

[Weather-history]

On 8/31/2017 at 17:51, prolongedSnowLover said:

It's hard to get a below average month against the 1961-90 mean these days with all the global warming! I think it's best comparing with the 1981-10 averages.

Months at least 0.5C below their 1961-90 averages

Nov 2016: 5.6

Sep 2015: 12.6

Aug 2014: 14.9
Jun 2013: 13.6
May 2013: 10.4
Mar 2013: 2.7
Feb 2013: 3.2
Oct 2012: 9.7
Sep 2012: 13.0
Jul 2012: 15.5
Jun 2012: 13.5
Apr 2012: 7.2
July 2011: 15.2
Dec 2010: -0.7
Nov 2010: 5.2
Aug 2010: 15.3
May 2010: 10.7
Feb 2010: 2.8
Jan 2010: 1.4

Compared to previous period 2000-09

Dec 2009: 3.1
Jan 2009: 3.0
Dec 2008: 3.5
Oct 2008: 9.7
July 2007: 15.2
Mar 2006: 4.9
Oct 2003: 9.2
Oct 2002: 10.1
Dec 2001: 3.6
Mar 2001: 5.2
Jan 2001: 3.2
Jul 2000: 15.5