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August 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 16.5°C please

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I will go for 16.3 degrees below the 81-10 average and 71-00 average but not quite the 61-90 average, however, I do feel this is the first month this year that has the highest probability of going below the 61-90 average if we maintain a predominantly westerly flow - which could quite likely occur. It will be mins again most likely that will prevent it going much below average, with all the cloud that westerly airstreams bring in..

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

A thoroughly uninteresting 16.7*C is my hopeful estimate for this month. This may however hide some more interesting details :whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Table of entries posted here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8

 

55 on-time entries and the median is 16.5, over half are in the range of 16.0 to 16.7.

All late entries will be added to an updated post on the fourth of August (can't edit this table). 

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

A late 16.6 please

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

16.9c please, better late than never.

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Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres

Unfortunately another late entry but I would like to keep up my record of participation and my guess for last month was pretty close!

15.7C for August.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

1981-2010 CET averages

 

Date ____ Avg CET ___ cum CET ____ MAX 1772-2016 __ MIN 1772-2016

_01______ 16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.9 1995 _____ 11.9 1888

_02 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.6 1995 _____ 11.6 1822

_03 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.4 1990 _____ 10.5 1912

_04______ 17.0 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.4 1975 _____ 11.3 1812

_05 ______17.3 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.1 2003 _____ 11.3 1812

_06 ______17.2 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.5 2003 _____ 11.2 1823&1860

_07______ 16.9 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.8 1975 _____ 11.6 1898

_08 ______16.8 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.7 1975 _____ 11.5 1823

_09 ______16.9 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.9 2003 _____ 11.0 1931

_10______ 16.8 _______ 16.9 _______ 22.5 1773&1997__10.8 1892

 

_11 ______16.7 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.6 1997 _____ 10.8 1902

_12 ______16.8 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.2 1911 _____ 10.5 1912

_13______ 16.3 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.6 1911 _____ 10.5 1881

_14 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.3 1911 _____ 10.8 1912

_15 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1893 _____ 10.3 1829

_16______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1947 ______ 9.5 1888

_17 ______16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.4 1876 _____ 10.9 1888

_18 ______16.6 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.6 1893 _____ 10.3 1830

_19 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.8 1932 _____ 10.4 1839

_20 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.9 1995 _____ 10.5 1920

 

_21 ______16.4 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1984 ______ 9.8 1850

_22______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.4 1817

_23 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.3 1877

_24 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 21.5 1990 ______ 9.1 1864

_25______ 15.8 _______ 16.7 ________ 20.9 1899 _____ 10.5 1787,1843&1864

_26 ______15.7 _______ 16.6 ________ 20.6 1870 ______ 8,8 1864

_27 ______15.4 _______ 16.6 ________ 22.8 1930 _____ 11.0 1885&1890

_28______ 15.1 _______ 16.5 ________ 23.0 1942 _____ 10.5 1919

_29 ______15.3 _______ 16.5 ________ 20.6 1930 ______ 9.1 1812

_30 ______15.5 _______ 16.5 _______ 19.8 1808&2008__ 9.5 1890

 

_31 ______15.2 _______ 16.4________ 21.3 1906 ______ 9.2 1833

__________________________________________________________________

The most recent record minimum CET daily mean in August was on the 9th of 1931. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Full table of entries now posted here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8

58 total entries, median still 16.5 C. 

Trend on GFS is cool until 8th then warmer than average for most of the next 12 days to end of run, would estimate a minimum of 15.0 might be reached by 8th then slowly rising to about 16.0 by 19th.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

16.6c here to the 3rd, 1.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

A couple of chilly nights coming up so should see some drops this weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 15.6C -1.1C below average.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny old Sheffield now at 15.5C -1.1C below average

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

VIzzy and Pit..

Re the above...

Care to explain what figures you use for comparison, as I don't believe that the figures can be 1.1C difference in 40 miles?

Unless one of you is using the end of month figure and one is using the up-to-tpday figures?

MIA.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
8 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

VIzzy and Pit..

Re the above...

Care to explain what figures you use for comparison, as I don't believe that the figures can be 1.1C difference in 40 miles?

Unless one of you is using the end of month figure and one is using the up-to-tpday figures?

MIA.

PIT will be using a monthly rolling average, whereas I just use the months overall average as I've not being able to work that out just yet.

My averages are based on estimates by comparing to nearby official weather stations as I've only been recording weather since October last year.

If i was to do a rolling average its very likely I would be similar at around 1c below average.

 

Edited by vizzy2004
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
3 hours ago, vizzy2004 said:

PIT will be using a monthly rolling average, whereas I just use the months overall average as I've not being able to work that out just yet.

My averages are based on estimates by comparing to nearby official weather stations as I've only been recording weather since October last year.

If i was to do a rolling average its very likely I would be similar at around 1c below average.

 

Thanks Vizzy..

Good luck with it

MIA

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