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I've just seen the latest GLOSEA output. 

I don't think I've seen a worse forecasted set up by a long range model for that time of year...ever. It is brutal stuff.

As Don has pointed out, it has backing from other models too unfortunately.

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Here's a few pics from round here last Autumn to get us in the mood.    

Storm Aileen was so bad York blew into the North Sea !!

Up at my normal 4:30am start today - no sunrise !! Lights on in the kitchen, here we go ........#NearlyAutumn Conkers swelling, crab apples abound, blackberries on the turn, a bumper crop of sloe

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11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I've just seen the latest GLOSEA output. 

I don't think I've seen a worse forecasted set up by a long range model for that time of year...ever. It is brutal stuff.

As Don has pointed out, it has backing from other models too unfortunately.

Not to fret last year it was quite incessant on extensive northern blocking on the run up to the silly season. As to how winter transpires if it is not this one I'm hopeful the next one will deliver.

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Good for a laugh though?:good:

Indeed.

However, I do get the feeling those of us who are of a cold persuasion may not be laughing too much come the end of February. I would certainly not rule out another snowless winter for large swathes of lowland England and Wales.

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed.

However, I do get the feeling those of us who are of a cold persuasion may not be laughing too much come the end of February. I would certainly not rule out another snowless winter for large swathes of lowland England and Wales.

I'm not sure about December though. There is a story that goes a very warm June brings the opposite in December. WeatherHistory put some stats on it a little while ago I think.

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17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed.

However, I do get the feeling those of us who are of a cold persuasion may not be laughing too much come the end of February. I would certainly not rule out another snowless winter for large swathes of lowland England and Wales.

Nothing out of the ordinary then, certainly for southern England and Wales. My feeling is different to yours, I reckon winter will come early and hard but late winter will be very mild. No science to back this up.

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The Uk is lucky and unlucky enough to have all sorts of weather but not have the extremes. No one knows what the Autumn and Winter will bring , but one thing for sure  the nights are fast drawing in now....:nea:

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3 hours ago, Don said:

True, but the model does have some support from others.  However, while it's a long way off, the run of mild winters resumed with a vengeance in 2013 and my hunch is that winter 2017/18 will not be the one to break us out of this mild pattern.

Winter 2015 was very close to average in all three months albeit i think the PDO screwed us out of a colder than average winter when looking at other background signals.

Personally i think the -ENSO and -QBO background pattern (likely) makes things evenly balanced with a stronger than normal chance for above average pressure in both the Tropics and the pole. Since that pattern rarely lasts i think we could see a milder and wetter than average Q4 and a cooler and drier than average Q1.

How the low solar and persistent +PDO effect this will determine how quickly that change occurs.  

On the plus side i still think the factors look good for the remainder of the hurricane season. 

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2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Not bothered about the long range models, I actually expect the opposite to what the show this winter.

Yes, I'd rather the models show mild at this range so that we lower our expectations. The opposite would be a recipe for disaster with people's expectations going through the roof.

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16 hours ago, Don said:

The pressure chart for Nov/Dec/Jan could not look any worse for early winter!  Not a good trend emerging as the CFSv2 is also pretty atrocious for that period.

That's brilliant news.....:cold: :cold::cold:

16 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

If it's of any comfort you can view their forecasts for this summer. Needless to say that bar about two weeks, they got that one wrong. 

I Rest My Case.... to the post above :)

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On 11/08/2017 at 10:04, stainesbloke said:

It has felt chilly at night times here for a while now, very autumnal. Maybe we will have a cold, stormy autumn this year with early snow?

Yeah, I think this year will see a shift towards colder conditions, and a return to the winters the UK had between 2008-2012.

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33 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Yeah, I think this year will see a shift towards colder conditions, and a return to the winters the UK had between 2008-2012.

I would love that to be the case but at the moment I feel August is likely to be a blip in an otherwise warm period like 2014.  We will see, however.

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Not sure about Autumn but I have a hunch that December will be the coldest month of this coming winter. As for the cfsv2, it is absolute pants just like most long range forecasts. Can't believe some still view it. 

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8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Not sure about Autumn but I have a hunch that December will be the coldest month of this coming winter. As for the cfsv2, it is absolute pants just like most long range forecasts. Can't believe some still view it. 

might well be, CET of 7.1, Feb likely be mildest

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On 11/08/2017 at 19:01, CreweCold said:

I've just seen the latest GLOSEA output. 

I don't think I've seen a worse forecasted set up by a long range model for that time of year...ever. It is brutal stuff.

As Don has pointed out, it has backing from other models too unfortunately.

Complete agreement between GLOSEA and CFS now. Extremely similar in their prognosis. Horrid

glbz700MonInd5.gif

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Surely what is being shown in the models for early December is guess work? Then again, whatever happened to the front-loaded winter that didn't come off? They always do the opposite. 

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I think we have one or two more crappy winters to get through before we see a decent cold spell. Early 2020s or 2019 at the earliest imo.

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