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Here's a few pics from round here last Autumn to get us in the mood.    

Storm Aileen was so bad York blew into the North Sea !!

Up at my normal 4:30am start today - no sunrise !! Lights on in the kitchen, here we go ........#NearlyAutumn Conkers swelling, crab apples abound, blackberries on the turn, a bumper crop of sloe

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Seeing as the world is dumbing down and making everything easier  to understand. we've been doing this for years up here april to october = warmer autumn  November to march =slightly cooler autumn  

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On 04/08/2017 at 19:40, Dangerous55019 said:

As requested, here is a closer look at this coming autumn from the Canadian Cansips model.
Lets start off with September...
cansips_mslpa_eu_2.thumb.png.551d94ef5d7d6b80ad1dc62e74c391d7.png
cansips_apcpna_month_eu_2.thumb.png.c8fdb5eb75afaeb034f1ed924aea5aae.png
cansips_T2ma_eu_2.thumb.png.3a7c649ccd5b7ac351bcd994d42ebbf3.png
Ok... The 500mb flow does look a tad unsettled for next month, but the precipitation chart shows that it really isn't as bad as it looks, likewise (especially for the south east) it looks like it could well be a bit on the warm side. So on the whole, certainly not a bad month. :)

October...
cansips_mslpa_eu_3.thumb.png.65013de8286c1e3417186bf28c065198.png
cansips_apcpna_month_eu_3.thumb.png.7b1c5b667a5620c97ec6786491fb05b5.png

cansips_T2ma_eu_3.thumb.png.72222c40c0c8a3f462c92e88ac235485.png
Now then, this does look like its gonna be an unsettled month, with low pressure, above average rainfall, and average temperatures... Hey, it's October. :pardon:

And finally November...
cansips_mslpa_eu_4.thumb.png.291a1954b29ed8dceda58dcafd9fb095.png

cansips_apcpna_month_eu_4.thumb.png.46720e0296e2a9f44bece7160d9cd8b5.png

cansips_T2ma_eu_4.thumb.png.314d8c5c7f1eb8791beb64c646c323e0.png
Again, November has a deep area of low pressure over most of Europe, and we are on the north western edge of it, as a result it doesn't look too wet at this stage, and again average temperatures.
So make of this what you will, but remember, average temperature in November will be (or hopefully should be) much cooler than they are now.
So on the whole, I've seen a lot worse, and for what its worth, with regards to looking for trends, I really do rate this model from Canada. :D

Not to take too seriously but the long rangers do seem to be hinting at some pretty rough autumn weather at times, especially the second half where I wouldn't be too surprised to see some proper autumn storms, the anomaly would suggest that these could track through the south of the UK and into central Europe rather than a typical Scotland/Scandinavia track.

I guess we have rode our luck in recent years with a lack of particularly stormy conditions since that infamous winter of 2013/14.

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54 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Not to take too seriously but the long rangers do seem to be hinting at some pretty rough autumn weather at times, especially the second half where I wouldn't be too surprised to see some proper autumn storms, the anomaly would suggest that these could track through the south of the UK and into central Europe rather than a typical Scotland/Scandinavia track.

I guess we have rode our luck in recent years with a lack of particularly stormy conditions since that infamous winter of 2013/14.

2015/2016 was the next stormy one, particularly November and December.

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I'm betting on similar to last year.

More of the current dross until the very end of August when 'Summer' will finally arrive to all of the UK.

Pleasantly warm and dry September with maybe some unseasonably late thunderstorms again.

Average October, both temperatures and rainfall.

Calm November with a tantalising tease of winter at the end for about a week before it all goes wrong and December decides that temperatures should really be higher than in July, even with constant cloud cover.

December and January reasonably storm free but then a pile of storms from late January-early March and no prolonged cold spells.

Absolutely no evidence to back this up but it does seem like our seasons have been dispaced by a couple of months for some reason.

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GloSea5 update is out for Sep/Oct/Nov and beyond.

2cat_20170801_z500_months24_global_deter

Not that you can glean much detail from a mean over a 3 month period, but presumably more stormy than recent years with the North faring the worst.

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15 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

GloSea5 update is out for Sep/Oct/Nov and beyond.

2cat_20170801_z500_months24_global_deter

Not that you can glean much detail from a mean over a 3 month period, but presumably more stormy than recent years with the North faring the worst.

It looks to me that September is likely to be the most unsettled month. If you check the Oct/Nov/Dec and Nov/Dec/Jan it has a large postive anomaly over Europe (including the UK) - continental drought and above average temperatures!

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1 hour ago, karyo said:

It looks to me that September is likely to be the most unsettled month. If you check the Oct/Nov/Dec and Nov/Dec/Jan it has a large postive anomaly over Europe (including the UK) - continental drought and above average temperatures!

The pressure chart for Nov/Dec/Jan could not look any worse for early winter!  Not a good trend emerging as the CFSv2 is also pretty atrocious for that period.

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25 minutes ago, Don said:

The pressure chart for Nov/Dec/Jan could not look any worse for early winter!  Not a good trend emerging as the CFSv2 is also pretty atrocious for that period.

If it's of any comfort you can view their forecasts for this summer. Needless to say that bar about two weeks, they got that one wrong. 

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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

If it's of any comfort you can view their forecasts for this summer. Needless to say that bar about two weeks, they got that one wrong. 

True, but the model does have some support from others.  However, while it's a long way off, the run of mild winters resumed with a vengeance in 2013 and my hunch is that winter 2017/18 will not be the one to break us out of this mild pattern.

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