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Here's a few pics from round here last Autumn to get us in the mood.    

Storm Aileen was so bad York blew into the North Sea !!

Up at my normal 4:30am start today - no sunrise !! Lights on in the kitchen, here we go ........#NearlyAutumn Conkers swelling, crab apples abound, blackberries on the turn, a bumper crop of sloe

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Whilst walking down to say good morning to the 'orses, I saw my first Lord and Ladies plant of the season today, with big green juicy berries on it... Always a good harbinger of the season to come. :D

IMG_3079.JPG

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9 hours ago, Dami said:

I love Autumn. 

I don't understand why folk have to bicker about when a thread appears or just moan about said users of thread. There are plenty threads for the weather folk to post their charts in and show off.

Autumn for me is the best time of year, Birthdays, anniversaries, Halloween, then the run up to crimbo. September can be just as warm as Summer these days too. 

I expect days of cloud and wind but that just means I have purpose to buy winter stuff as summer stuffs are boring me - although I did get a surprise delivery from hubs as it's not a good week this week for us but anyway, bring on the jumpers and BOOTS!:D:D

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:good:

  

Evening @Dami :)
I totally agree, autumn is the best time of year for me as well :good:
You'd love it around here, being with horses, you tend to live in boots... As the horses tend to plodge the ground up... Plus its always nice to walk through the fallen leaves. :laugh:

And swerving swiftly back on topic... After I've had me tea, I'll have a look at what the CFS and the Canadian Cansips models are showing for this coming autumn. :D

IMG_2594.JPG

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This is shaping up to be one horrible year weather-wise for me: mild winter, warm spring, very warm summer (damn the GFS :angry:), warm autumn and possibly a mild winter :wallbash:

There is no hope anymore.

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Far too early to be thinking about autumn in my opinion. High summer only just starting in terms of the weather and feel of things, but yes as you say if you look there are plenty of signs of the upcoming season, I stare onto a rowan tree and it is abundant with orange berries these will soon turn red. 

I tend to start thinking about autumn roughly second week of August, but autumnal conditions nowadays don't usually rear there head until the Sept equinox more than 2 months away, early September in recent years has been an extension of summer, and often it comes in fits and starts never truly getting going until the third week of October.

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Id love another Autumn like 1985..Goregeous warm sept and a really cold nov under the influence of a huge scandanavian anticyclone..

If I'd been alive I would probably agree. Quite a cold winter to follow overall I think.

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4 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Whilst walking down to say good morning to the 'orses, I saw my first Lord and Ladies plant of the season today, with big green juicy berries on it... Always a good harbinger of the season to come. :D

IMG_3079.JPG

Lords & Ladies are the real harbinger of late Summer for me. Good spot !!

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17 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

One can only hope. Sadly the long range charts are looking to deprive me once again.

I meant in 1985 lol. A mild Autumn doesn't preclude a cold/chilly winter though. Just look at 2005 or 2009. 

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Evening everyone, as promised here is a look at what the CFS V2 model is showing for this autumn...
So here is what the CFS V2 is showing for September...
glbz700MonInd3.thumb.gif.e5a43362112c6b2561878d30a3a3a6eb.gif
euPrecMonInd3.thumb.gif.5a61ff1da20a0206d8c055213c0b32b6.gif
euT2mMonInd3.thumb.gif.447e5d08a57420246ef236fb8a0f98aa.gif
As we can see, its showing an area of high pressure stretching from Greenland, over Iceland, and down over the UK, if this is true (remember this is a long range model) then this would probably be fetching the winds in from the east/north east, which ties in with the drier than average rain fall chart... But remember the peak of the heat will hopefully be over, so hence not than much of a warmer than average temperature anomaly.

Right... October...
glbz700MonInd4.thumb.gif.5facbeea2d7ea7f3eb75019f00d4bf5e.gif
euPrecMonInd4.thumb.gif.b1e9d616ea2260f40dc4ae5350c38f82.gif
 

euT2mMonInd4.thumb.gif.3b6b19f65e7f560a7d0a4f8b25e0077e.gif
As we can see, there is an area of high pressure just to the north of us here in the UK... At this time of year I think this could fetch us those misty foggy day days, along with some beautiful sunny days as well... Hopefully to get those autumn colours to there absolute best. :rolleyes:

And November...
glbz700MonInd5.thumb.gif.54b78e89eb538719f6127c6b206a6349.gif
euPrecMonInd5.thumb.gif.cab00950162f59cd4b9e9805e39e4b86.gif

euT2mMonInd5.thumb.gif.6284fbd89dbc159b71ff867058989825.gif
Yet again, high pressure is right over the to of us here in the UK!! So I'd say lots of potentially frost and foggy days here. :D
I know it says warmer than average... But with high pressure sat right over us, it would soon cool off at night... I just hope that we're not staring down the barrel of a gloomfest with this chart... Fog is atmospheric... Dull slate grey skies? No thank you. :nea:

 

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43 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:



And November...
glbz700MonInd5.thumb.gif.54b78e89eb538719f6127c6b206a6349.gif
euPrecMonInd5.thumb.gif.cab00950162f59cd4b9e9805e39e4b86.gif

euT2mMonInd5.thumb.gif.6284fbd89dbc159b71ff867058989825.gif
Yet again, high pressure is right over the to of us here in the UK!! So I'd say lots of potentially frost and foggy days here. :D
I know it says warmer than average... But with high pressure sat right over us, it would soon cool off at night... I just hope that we're not staring down the barrel of a gloomfest with this chart... Fog is atmospheric... Dull slate grey skies? No thank you. :nea:

 

Here is the most recent November chart, incorporating the average of the most recent data

glbz700MonInd5.gif

Agrees with GLOSEA. LP to N&NW and HP to the S

A +NAO there.

Just out of interest, the December chart is about as grim as you can get for early winter

glbz700MonInd6.gif

Edited by CreweCold
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15 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Here is the most recent November chart, incorporating the average of the most recent data

glbz700MonInd5.gif

Agrees with GLOSEA. LP to N&NW and HP to the S

A +NAO there.

Just out of interest, the December chart is about as grim as you can get for early winter

glbz700MonInd6.gif

Looks grim here also..but a for a different reason..this would be a cold, cold December here.

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Winters over??.   In all seriousness way to out to call yet   and to be honest if its a wind and rain fest, at least its weather,  unlike last Autumn winter   when it just felt like nothingness

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17 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Here is the most recent November chart, incorporating the average of the most recent data

glbz700MonInd5.gif

Agrees with GLOSEA. LP to N&NW and HP to the S

A +NAO there.

Just out of interest, the December chart is about as grim as you can get for early winter

glbz700MonInd6.gif

Evening @CreweCold :)
Ermmmm... You've actually posted charts for December 2017 and January 2018... And this is the Autumn thread. Lol :cc_confused:

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Evening everyone :)
Right... Last night I had a look at what the CFS V2 was forecasting for this coming autumn, so I thought this evening I'd have a look at what the Canadian Cansips model is showing for September to November... This far out it is only for fun, but hey, isn't that what it's all about? :D

September...
cansips_mslpa_eu_3.thumb.png.14c87ae14482c6b8dfb2e1b85b0b540e.png
cansips_apcpna_month_eu_3.thumb.png.551d5578bd75451a44437863221dd806.png
cansips_T2ma_eu_3.thumb.png.036530562d2ff4c0beb61cab43c6945b.png

So again, this model is showing the same as the CFS V2 and going for a nice warm and settled September... Hopefully providing those pleasant misty mornings and evenings, as the days get shorter. :D

October...
cansips_mslpa_eu_4.thumb.png.28a9dbc27697f56fe3b474da32fb6a76.png
cansips_apcpna_month_eu_4.thumb.png.27a90547d6c9a0660ede2128942c962d.png
cansips_T2ma_eu_4.thumb.png.a0e79958d8531f00afae5c5ebb4f322c.png
So October is showing a very weak area of low pressure over the bulk of England and Wales, but on the other hand average precipitation, with ever so slightly above average temperatures... Probably due to the NW/SE angle of the jetstream. Certainly not a washout, but possibly q bit blustery from time to time... And after all this is October we're talking about :)

And finally November...
cansips_mslpa_eu_5.thumb.png.112392904caf15850e740ae373684c4e.png
cansips_T2ma_eu_5.thumb.png.786619b0b7938fee144751e4ef5208ec.png
cansips_apcpna_month_eu_5.thumb.png.6173ce928864f44a469b47f5a4b32cb6.png
Sooooooo, for November, it shows a notable area of low pressure, just off the west of Ireland, with average temperatures, and below average rain fall... I'm wondering is this model has picked up on a couple of big storms that could rattle in interspersed with high pressure... Blustery followed by find settle and hopefully a few foggy misty days? ... I'll take that :D:good:

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Really not liking the look of these charts for autumn and they seem to be picking up on the same signal.  An 11C plus CET year anyone?

Edited by Don
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26 minutes ago, Don said:

Really not liking the look of these charts for autumn and they seem to be picking up on the same signal.  An 11C plus CET year anyone?

Evening @Don :)

I see where you're coming from, but remember these are long range forecast models, and as such they could be right, but they could be wrong. Just look at how the GFS along with the ECMWF, and the UKMeto model all disagree at a much closer time scale. :)

I have seen these long range models hit a certain weather event smack on the head... But have got the forecast for the month as a whole totally wrong.

As I say, this is only for a bit of fun to see what might happen this autumn... Plus as we all know, Mother Nature can catch everyone, and every thing out.

So personally I'd say don't worry about it, as everything is still all to play for as regards this coming autumn. :friends:

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On 7/11/2017 at 21:20, northwestsnow said:

Id love another Autumn like 1985..Gorgeous warm sept and a really cold nov under the influence of a huge scandanavian anticyclone..

That's when I got my first paper round; went from delivering the papers in a t-shirt in late September/ early October to the full winter kit within about 3-4 weeks......

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I think autumn will be bland, a bit like spring/summer/ winter and i think the bland autumn will start in September and last until June before another bland summer sets in.:80:

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The weather outlooks early look at Autumn

Quote

Summary

A warmer than average autumn is strongly favoured at the current time. The signal for precipitation is a lot weaker, but on balance the TWO view is that drier than average conditions are slightly more likely over the the three month period.

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3880&title=Autumn+2017

:)

Edited by Summer Sun
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