Autumn thoughts

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 hours ago, Team Squirrel said:

Nights are noticably drawing in now. I too think the run of pleasant Septembers might me over.

I'm a bit of a weather lore fan and I was quite surprised to see the squirrels (who have lived in the communal gardens of our flat for decades) starting to build their winter dreys 11 days early this year which is a bit baffling as it's nothing to do with weather but light levels.

To me, the charts are suggestive of it settling down, just in time for September. Happens almost every year and IMO doesn't bode well for the forthcoming winter as this is the same pattern we've been stuck in for the past few years.

[Don]

19 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I'm not, I want it warm and settled, wouldn't mind an Indian summer

That would not be good news if you want a cold winter.  A warm and settled October would be nice mind.

Edited August 17, 2017 by Don

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Don said:

That would not be good news if you want a cold winter.  A warm and settled would be nice mind.

Indeed, I think the winter is relatively straight forward to forecast this year...certainly no cold ramping from me! (see my post above).

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

To me, the charts are suggestive of it settling down, just in time for September. Happens almost every year and IMO doesn't bode well for the forthcoming winter as this is the same pattern we've been stuck in for the past few years.

The only really settled September out of the last few was 2014. 

September 2015 and 2016 were about 3.5C difference temperature wise and both winters were mediocre at best.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

To me, the charts are suggestive of it settling down, just in time for September. Happens almost every year and IMO doesn't bode well for the forthcoming winter as this is the same pattern we've been stuck in for the past few years.

is that really a surprise!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

The only really settled September out of the last few was 2014. 

September 2015 and 2016 were about 3.5C difference temperature wise and both winters were mediocre at best.

Maybe so Kev, but it seems to me that from memory recent Septembers have featured a dry, settled spell at some point after a changeable summer.

I really think we may see at least one month this winter break a temperature record (and not for the right reason).

[Don]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed, I think the winter is relatively straight forward to forecast this year...certainly no cold ramping from me! (see my post above).

I too feel winter 2017/18 is likely to be another mild one, albeit hopefully less mild than last year.  Not if the latest GloSea5 and CFSv2 are to believed though.....

[MP-R]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Maybe so Kev, but it seems to me that from memory recent Septembers have featured a dry, settled spell at some point after a changeable summer.

I really think we may see at least one month this winter break a temperature record (and not for the right reason).

To be honest, nearly every month of every year has featured a settled spell at some point of another. Last September I can't actually remember having any lengthy settled spells as such, rather short warm/hot spells. 2015 had a few nice days early on and at the month's close, similar to 2013. As Weather History says, 2014 is the only really settled one recently, and was actually followed by a pretty average winter, nothing too mild.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

I too feel winter 2017/18 is likely to be another mild one, albeit hopefully less mild than last year.  Not if the latest GloSea5 and CFSv2 are to believed though.....

Those two models are in complete and utter agreement...right down to the finer details of pressure placement. It really doesn't bode well at all IMO and they would both promote the chance of a record warm winter month occurring.

I would be really quite happy to be proved wrong though!

Edited August 17, 2017 by CreweCold

[Weather-history]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Maybe so Kev, but it seems to me that from memory recent Septembers have featured a dry, settled spell at some point after a changeable summer.

I really think we may see at least one month this winter break a temperature record (and not for the right reason).

Well the winter of 2009-10 was preceded by a pretty dry and milder than average September.

I don't see a correlation between a settled spell in September and it having an effect of the following winter. 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Those two models are in complete and utter agreement...right down to the finer details of pressure placement. It really doesn't bode well at all IMO and they would both promote the chance of a record warm winter month occurring.

I have a feeling some records to go between Dec and Feb, mildest certain date, max temp, wettest day, maybe even warmest month, or lowest pressure mean

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Weather-history said:

Well the winter of 2009-10 was preceded by a pretty dry and milder than average September.

I don't see a correlation between a settled spell in September and it having an effect of the following winter. 

 

It's not solely about the conditions in September though per se. It's setting it in context to the mumblings I'm hearing from the pros and the likes of the GLOSEA and CFS output. When you assemble it all together it's grim looking.

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

September 2015 and 2016 were about 3.5C difference temperature wise and both winters were mediocre at best.

Whilst a cool and wet September by no means guarantees a cold winter, I feel it is more likely than following a summery September.  Also, there was the Super Nino and westerly QBO in 2015 which would have overridden most other variables.

[Matthew.]

September 2015 was great here. One of the sunniest on record too.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Well the winter of 2009-10 was preceded by a pretty dry and milder than average September.

I don't see a correlation between a settled spell in September and it having an effect of the following winter. 

 

Yes, perhaps September 2009 did buck the trend a little.  However, with a CET of 14.2C it wasn't hugely above average and nothing like the Septembers of 2006, 2016 and 1999 to name a few.

[Seasonality]

Winter is over posts in August in an Autumn thoughts thread.  An interesting observation is that September, looking at the averages for London, actually has a slightly lower average rainfall than August, so a more settled period in the month in comparison to August is not at all surprising. Then I suppose the question is the old chestnut of just how much scientific link there is between the weather in past months and the following season and how much is just statistical clumping based on the relatively small set of data we have access to, throw in the disruption of changes to the climate and it is anyone's guess! So here is how I'd like to see autumn play out. September to start at seasonal average temps, relatively settled then a cooling with wetter weather in the last third of the month. October, the first frosts to make an appearance, golden sunlight interspersed with showery rain and the occasional more vigorous Atlantic system. November, fogs and frost to make their presence felt with a noticeable cooling as the month progresses. Fingers crossed.

[sundog]

Here in ireland since 1996 ,14 septembers have been warmer then average,of which 11 of the winters that followed were warmer then average. Good correlation imo. Im sure for the uk its very similar.

[karyo]

15 hours ago, Don said:

That would not be good news if you want a cold winter.  A warm and settled October would be nice mind.

If we can't get the cold (which seems to be proving more and more difficult) then I prefer a very stormy winter which can give a bit of a wintry feel in the wind and the rain. It also gives a chance for some upland snow at least. If it is warm and dry it is just nothingness.

[NeilN]

I just can't see these models verifying a winter like that. I think we're going to get a spanner in the works somewhere. 

[Don]

10 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Winter is over posts in August in an Autumn thoughts thread.  An interesting observation is that September, looking at the averages for London, actually has a slightly lower average rainfall than August, so a more settled period in the month in comparison to August is not at all surprising. Then I suppose the question is the old chestnut of just how much scientific link there is between the weather in past months and the following season and how much is just statistical clumping based on the relatively small set of data we have access to, throw in the disruption of changes to the climate and it is anyone's guess! So here is how I'd like to see autumn play out. September to start at seasonal average temps, relatively settled then a cooling with wetter weather in the last third of the month. October, the first frosts to make an appearance, golden sunlight interspersed with showery rain and the occasional more vigorous Atlantic system. November, fogs and frost to make their presence felt with a noticeable cooling as the month progresses. Fingers crossed.

Nobody is saying winter is over in August, just that the current signals are not favorable for a cold one and like CreweCold, says, it's not only the models but the pros also who seem to be thinking along these lines.

Edited August 18, 2017 by Don

[Weather-history]

9 hours ago, sundog said:

Here in ireland since 1996 ,14 septembers have been warmer then average,of which 11 of the winters that followed were warmer then average. Good correlation imo. Im sure for the uk its very similar.

Most of the time it in that period was warmer than average! Summers, autumns, springs, winters.

Edited August 18, 2017 by Weather-history

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Nobody is saying winter is over in August, just that the current signals are not favorable for a cold one and like CreweCold, says, it's not only the models but the pros also who seem to be thinking along these lines.

I seem to remember back in May? the long range models and pros for that matter, all pointing towards a very warm/hot at times August..........

[Polar Maritime]

1st longlegs spotted here stuck to my window.

Edited August 18, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[JeffC]

7 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

1st longlegs spotted here stuck to my window.

Seen quite a few in my neck of the woods

[Bogman]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

I seem to remember back in May? the long range models and pros for that matter, all pointing towards a very warm/hot at times August..........

Can't ever remember any long range model or amateur or professional weather enthusiast getting any long range forecast right.

 

From BBQ summers to beasts from the east, the past years have been anything but normal.

Edited August 18, 2017 by Bogman