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13 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Complete agreement between GLOSEA and CFS now. Extremely similar in their prognosis. Horrid

glbz700MonInd5.gif

That high pressure to the north-west of the US has been displaced northwards semi-permanently in recent winters and there it is yet again. It serves to direct cold air from the Canadian arctic southwards which then hits the warm Atlantic out of the east coast and fires up the jet. We then get the usual SW-NE line of low pressures and resultant high pressure over Europe. Its also caused the Californian drought so I imagine they would be happy to see the back of it too!

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Here's a few pics from round here last Autumn to get us in the mood.    

Storm Aileen was so bad York blew into the North Sea !!

Up at my normal 4:30am start today - no sunrise !! Lights on in the kitchen, here we go ........#NearlyAutumn Conkers swelling, crab apples abound, blackberries on the turn, a bumper crop of sloe

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5 hours ago, reef said:

That high pressure to the north-west of the US has been displaced northwards semi-permanently in recent winters and there it is yet again. It serves to direct cold air from the Canadian arctic southwards which then hits the warm Atlantic out of the east coast and fires up the jet. We then get the usual SW-NE line of low pressures and resultant high pressure over Europe. Its also caused the Californian drought so I imagine they would be happy to see the back of it too!

That high pressure was a result of warmer than average SST's in the north east Pacific.  It did cool down but has now warmed once again which is possibly why the model is forecasting high pressure over the north west US.  Another bad sign for winter if you like it cold.......

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On 14/08/2017 at 02:02, CreweCold said:

Complete agreement between GLOSEA and CFS now. Extremely similar in their prognosis. Horrid

glbz700MonInd5.gif

Speaking of winter that brings me nicely onto this from Exacta weather

 

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12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Speaking of winter that brings me nicely onto this from Exacta weather

 

BRRR going by those pictures they've used its looking like a cold winter coming up :cold:

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26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Speaking of winter that brings me nicely onto this from Exacta weather

 

What indications do they mean I wonder. I guess they have not seen the GLOSEA or the CFS.

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10 minutes ago, karyo said:

What indications do they mean I wonder. I guess they have not seen the GLOSEA or the CFS.

Looks like Exacta weather have hijacked the CFS model too ;)

cfs-0-4362.png?12

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14 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Looks like Exacta weather have hijacked the CFS model too ;)

cfs-0-4362.png?12

haha

 

That's one of the many CFS daily runs so it has no value at all. We need the monthly maps to start showing some blue

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13 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

First Autumn mists sat in the harvested wheat fields this morning - a stunning sight. Here we go.....

Evening @Turnedoutniceagain:)
The first mists appeared around here about four weeks ago :D
I notice that there is a bumper crop of berries in the hedgerows as well :D

7 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Any thoughts for Autumn though? I see lots of talk of winter but Autumn thoughts would be nice.

Evening @Seasonality :)
My thoughts exactly! I thought that this was the autumn thread, and all people seem to be doing is frothing over winter. :cc_confused:
As I said much earlier in this thread I'm hoping for a pleasant and sunny September, with lots of cool nights and misty mornings and hopefully a few last remaining summer thunderstorms, followed by an October that continues the cooling trend, and allows the misty mornings to slowly start developing into a foggy day or two about the middle of the month, before giving way to those misty start and end sunny days with that misty smokey golden haze to the air especially on the run up to Halloween. As the light in September and October is like no other time of the year, especially with the trees being on the turn. :rolleyes:
As for November, once the glory of the autumn colours are over, I hope we see a few big wind storms, as I does enjoy wrapping up and pulling my boots on for a nice long walk on a good ole blustery, late autumn day... Interspersed with many more misty mornings and evenings with that beautiful light that only a low sun in the sky can bring. :rolleyes:

I really don't know if it'll pan out like that of course, but there is now't wrong with hopecasting. :D

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A cool feel out there already tonight, alarm set for 5.30am to see if there's any mellow mistyness around sunrise which will make for some nice pictures.

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10 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Evening @Turnedoutniceagain:)
The first mists appeared around here about four weeks ago :D
I notice that there is a bumper crop of berries in the hedgerows as well :D

Evening @Seasonality :)
My thoughts exactly! I thought that this was the autumn thread, and all people seem to be doing is frothing over winter. :cc_confused:
As I said much earlier in this thread I'm hoping for a pleasant and sunny September, with lots of cool nights and misty mornings and hopefully a few last remaining summer thunderstorms, followed by an October that continues the cooling trend, and allows the misty mornings to slowly start developing into a foggy day or two about the middle of the month, before giving way to those misty start and end sunny days with that misty smokey golden haze to the air especially on the run up to Halloween. As the light in September and October is like no other time of the year, especially with the trees being on the turn. :rolleyes:
As for November, once the glory of the autumn colours are over, I hope we see a few big wind storms, as I does enjoy wrapping up and pulling my boots on for a nice long walk on a good ole blustery, late autumn day... Interspersed with many more misty mornings and evenings with that beautiful light that only a low sun in the sky can bring. :rolleyes:

I really don't know if it'll pan out like that of course, but there is now't wrong with hopecasting. :D

A very poetic autumn forecast, and similar to what I'd like to see!

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Whilst no mist across the fields this morning, there was a nice sunrise and some mist over the River Derwent that runs through the valley at Kirkham.

1608173.thumb.jpg.a7c626b537cac81866f539cf69079bb7.jpg158171.thumb.jpg.73cf6963fd6d4e75d0d1c7a521bffe14.jpg168172.thumb.jpg.a20946587c8a141fc9d6fded57973957.jpg1608174.thumb.jpg.c751e9499da265dec15f12f4bf895ead.jpg

 

After a warm Spring and start to summer I'm very much in Autumn mode right now :D

 

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Nights are noticably drawing in now. I too think the run of pleasant Septembers might me over.

I'm a bit of a weather lore fan and I was quite surprised to see the squirrels (who have lived in the communal gardens of our flat for decades) starting to build their winter dreys 11 days early this year which is a bit baffling as it's nothing to do with weather but light levels.

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8 hours ago, Team Squirrel said:

I too think the run of pleasant Septembers might me over.

 

I'm hoping for a cool and unsettled September this year!

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