Autumn thoughts

[Methuselah]

There's something I find rather 'unsettling' about the current situation - though I might well be suffering from delusions: the warmer-than-average SSTs, combined with both an active hurricane season and all that heat still resident over Europe, makes me suspect that the type of conditions that have facilitated Ophelia's strength and track, may well continue for a while yet? 

[Polar Maritime]

Going by the models that statement certainly rings true Pete, With only next weekend to wait for more stormy conditions as lows track to the South.

Edited October 15, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Nick L]

19 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

What is it with the BBC and Ireland?...they never even mention them in the slightest in any of the forecasts, more likely to hear about France or Holland. The above graphic just goes to prove that, what gust will they get there? (whatever it is the Beeb couldn't care less).

Why should they mention Ireland?

[lassie23]

46 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

There's something I find rather 'unsettling' about the current situation - though I might well be suffering from delusions: the warmer-than-average SSTs, combined with both an active hurricane season and all that heat still resident over Europe, makes me suspect that the type of conditions that have facilitated Ophelia's strength and track, may well continue for a while yet? 

until 2029, i think

[Walsall Wood Snow]

20 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

What is it with the BBC and Ireland?...they never even mention them in the slightest in any of the forecasts, more likely to hear about France or Holland. The above graphic just goes to prove that, what gust will they get there? (whatever it is the Beeb couldn't care less).

They're also more likely to mention the USA also. In fact the British media is obsessed with major American weather events, and you almost feel that they're reported to us as if we're somehow affected. Why does the news make such a big deal about snowstorms in America say. I'm pretty sure similar conditions here would barely get a mention if at all.

As for national tv forecasts, they're only supposed to predict conditions in the UK, so obviously Northern Ireland is mentioned, but been as the rest of the island is a separate state, conditions there are left out. This is of course despite the fact that the entire island appears on UK weather maps. You'd think though that if something major was to affect them more than us, that they would highlight it, been as they're our nearest neighbour and it could also even be done without panning the image out.

[Weather-history]

 

[Nick L]

Just watched a BBC forecast, he made several mentions of Ireland...

[Summer Sun]

Weather Online's month ahead forecast

Quote

Valid from 14/10 to 10/11 2017

Issued: Friday 6th October 2017 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling Fair to start but then turning unsettled and cold Hints are that the second half of October is likely to start with higher pressure and drier conditions, but rather chilly. Becoming more unsettled and colder towards the end of October and early November. Heavy periods of rain and strong winds. Probably remaining rather chilly into the middle of the month with rain and cloud tending to shift south, whilst northern areas become drier. *14/10/17 -20/10/17* A ridge high pressure builds through the week bringing some dry conditions. With the winds likely from the northwest it is going to be cool, despite some sunshine by day. Nights are going to be cool as well under clearer skies with a risk of air and ground frosts. Coud and some outbreaks of rain in northern and western Scotland. *21/10/17 - 26/10/17* The ridge of high pressure persists into the beginning of the week bringing dry weather overall. More sunshine by day with overnight frosts. Northern areas tending to see showers and a risk of stronger winds. As the week progresses the weather becomes more unsettled and cooler with northerly winds setting in. *27/10/17 - 2/11/17* A cold and unsettled week is likely with low pressure dominating. Rain is expected, as are strong winds and it will be cold. Sleet and snow on northern hills? *3/11/17 - 9/11/17* Rather unsettled again during the week with more cloud and rain. A tendency to less wet weather later in the week. Windy and cold start, becoming milder later. *10/11/17 to 16/11/17* Higher pressure may build to the north with low pressure to the south. Cold and unsettled in the south with the risk of some wintry precipitation on hills. Drier to the north with sunny spells and staying cold.

 

1

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm

Edited October 15, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Froze were the Days]

10 hours ago, Nick L said:

Just watched a BBC forecast, he made several mentions of Ireland...

As Walsall posted it appears on the graphics with the UK and 99% of the time they are not mentioned and a good percentage of our weather comes from generally that direction, only as they have a dramatic low pressure on their 'doorstep' are the Beeb forced to mention Ireland over the last day. Even my dad has noticed this over previous years. 

[summer blizzard]

35 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

As Walsall posted it appears on the graphics with the UK and 99% of the time they are not mentioned and a good percentage of our weather comes from generally that direction, only as they have a dramatic low pressure on their 'doorstep' are the Beeb forced to mention Ireland over the last day. Even my dad has noticed this over previous years. 

Ireland is sadly no longer part of the UK and hence there's no reason to waste time discussing their weather. 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

I caught the last of our apples from the orchard this weekend, alas most were on the floor already. If the predicted winds come off from #Ophelia and next weekend's low, then I'm guessing we can wave goodbye to the leaves until next Spring?

[damianslaw]

All these strong winds unfortunately look like stripping the trees clean of leaves before autumn leaf colour change has reached its peak.. we've had little in the way of colder dry sunny conditions - which is crucial for bringing out the best in colour. Recent years though devoid of much cold frosty weather, have brought lots of sunshine and very calm conditions which has enabled autumn colours to hold into the middle of November. 

This year the late October/early Nov period - peak time for autumn colours could bring a scene of no colour simply because there is nothing to look at..

[Cheshire Freeze]

The way this autumn is panning out, you'd be forgiven for thinking we might actually get a more seasonal winter this year. Though I won't hold my breath.

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

The way this autumn is panning out, you'd be forgiven for thinking we might actually get a more seasonal winter this year. Though I won't hold my breath.

Im thinking the complete opposite...Atlantic domination onwards.

Hope im wrong but its an all year Atlantic ' these days' ..

[Dangerous55019]

22 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

I caught the last of our apples from the orchard this weekend, alas most were on the floor already. If the predicted winds come off from #Ophelia and next weekend's low, then I'm guessing we can wave goodbye to the leaves until next Spring?

Morning @Turnedoutniceagain 
I was thinking the same thing, but when I went for a walk across the fields yesterday evening a lot of the leaves appeared to be holding on... But then the wind got stronger, and stronger.... I know that we've got a few large branches down, but until the sun comes up I can't do a full assessment.
Hopefully there's still a bit of autumn colour to come. 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

7 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Im thinking the complete opposite...Atlantic domination onwards.

Hope im wrong but its an all year Atlantic ' these days' ..

If 'Atlantic domination' means more rainfall, then bring it on. I can't recall seeing the local reservoir this low - ever

[Summer Sun]

Yesterday was the hottest 16th October on record with 23.5C in Manston, Kent

[Nick L]

It wouldn't be Autumn these days without well above average month, step forward October.

[Nick L]

15 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

If 'Atlantic domination' means more rainfall, then bring it on. I can't recall seeing the local reservoir this low - ever

Yep, a very dry month for much of the southern half of Britain so far, could do with some proper rain.

[Frost HoIIow]

10 minutes ago, Nick L said:

It wouldn't be Autumn these days without well above average month, step forward October.

Haha very true, hopefully November will buck the trend and end up below average - won't hold my breath though!

[Nick L]

10 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Haha very true, hopefully November will buck the trend and end up below average - won't hold my breath though!

Well September was a little below average to be fair, but a frosty November would be lovely.

[feb1991blizzard]

53 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Yep, a very dry month for much of the southern half of Britain so far, could do with some proper rain.

We have had enough over the course of summer over the whole of Britain, we could do with some snow now!

[Nick L]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

We have had enough over the course of summer over the whole of Britain, we could do with some snow now!

Was only slightly above average rainfall here, much of the Midlands had near normal rainfall too. Admittedly, the exception to the rule!

I just like rainy days I guess *

*Within reason, 13/14 "winter" was an atrocity

Edited October 17, 2017 by Nick L

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Was only slightly above average rainfall here, much of the Midlands had near normal rainfall too. Admittedly, the exception to the rule!

I just like rainy days I guess *

*Within reason, 13/14 "winter" was an atrocity

Yes only a tiny bit brown, reason I know its been wet because of my betting on cricket matches being abandoned was succesfull this summer, I don't mind moderate rain in summer, its very heavy rain I hate because I hate coats in summer and still t-shirt it unless torrential. its sun and heat I really hate though.

[JeffC]

6 hours ago, Nick L said:

Was only slightly above average rainfall here, much of the Midlands had near normal rainfall too. Admittedly, the exception to the rule!

I just like rainy days I guess *

*Within reason, 13/14 "winter" was an atrocity

Rainy days are great... After a drought, but we've had too many of them this "summer"! 

Hoping that my trench foot will be cured by frostbite! 

Edited October 18, 2017 by JeffC