Autumn thoughts

[Mokidugway]

It's bad in the Lake District,expect reports soon .http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-cumbria-41582975/torrential-rain-sees-flooding-hit-cumbria

Edited October 11, 2017 by Mokidugway

[Polar Maritime]

7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The biggest failing of the Met Office is that they make it so difficult to find real time data, and even then it's hourly observations. 

Yes Nick this has always annoyed me as it's the tax payers money which funds them.

Leafs realy blowing off the trees here today, Looks very Autumnal out.

Edited October 11, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

 

[comet]

Very encouraged  to see the trend in the models for the mid and extended range with northern blocking and perhaps even heights building up into Greenland. I said some while ago that this is a good sign to see in the Autumn and would be likely imho to repeat in the winter months ahead should it verify of course.

[Snowyowl9]

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=eu&t=4e

This is rare hot even by summer standards.

That looks extremely stormy out west.

 

[Summer Sun]

Temps into the low 20's extend right up into Yorkshire on Monday with Doncaster at 23c and Sheffield around 21c

[karyo]

14 hours ago, comet said:

Very encouraged  to see the trend in the models for the mid and extended range with northern blocking and perhaps even heights building up into Greenland. I said some while ago that this is a good sign to see in the Autumn and would be likely imho to repeat in the winter months ahead should it verify of course.

Already gone this morning with a continuation for stubborn high pressure to the south and low to the north.

[carinthian]

10 minutes ago, karyo said:

Already gone this morning with a continuation for stubborn high pressure to the south and low to the north.

Hi Karyo, that Mid Latitude High Pressure Block has been there all summer and continues to hold some amazing heat over SW Iberia and NW Africa . The continued theme produces endless days of warm sunshine here at altitude in Central Euroland and cold misty days in the valleys. NW Britain , Scandinavia / Baltic Sea regions continues with unsettled flow.  I have lost count of how many times , I have be stuck under Euro High  at this time of year and looks like the latest models show no real incursion to change the stubborn pattern of recent times. Of course great to be out and about and enjoy the Autumn colours here in the mountains but I will not be happy until our first blizzard arrives. By the look of things , might have a bit of a wait !

[karyo]

34 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Hi Karyo, that Mid Latitude High Pressure Block has been there all summer and continues to hold some amazing heat over SW Iberia and NW Africa . The continued theme produces endless days of warm sunshine here at altitude in Central Euroland and cold misty days in the valleys. NW Britain , Scandinavia / Baltic Sea regions continues with unsettled flow.  I have lost count of how many times , I have be stuck under Euro High  at this time of year and looks like the latest models show no real incursion to change the stubborn pattern of recent times. Of course great to be out and about and enjoy the Autumn colours here in the mountains but I will not be happy until our first blizzard arrives. By the look of things , might have a bit of a wait !

hi carinthian,

indeed a very familiar pattern and very disappointing when you want something wintry or even more seasonal to arrive.

It is ironic that some snow fell in the Pyrenees and Alps in the middle of September but it was a false dawn.

[Nick L]

23 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes Nick this has always annoyed me as it's the tax payers money which funds them.

Leafs realy blowing off the trees here today, Looks very Autumnal out.

We do leaf fall forecasts for the railways, we are significantly ahead of last year (and recent years) in terms of number of leaves falling.

[NorthYorksWeather]

39 minutes ago, Nick L said:

We do leaf fall forecasts for the railways, we are significantly ahead of last year (and recent years) in terms of number of leaves falling.

The leaves will be growing back on the trees if this mornings GFS run is correct

[karyo]

30 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

The leaves will be growing back on the trees if this mornings GFS run is correct

Snow drops flowering by December?

[Nick L]

Yep, it is a bit of a shame that after a seasonal start, Autumn has quickly reverted to being an extension of summer. But I will be certainly making the most of this weekend in a beer garden somewhere

[Summer Sun]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

Snow drops flowering by December?

Daffodils flowering in December isn't unusual of late if the mild temps keep up into November I suspect we'll be seeing the first signs of spring poking through the ground in December

[karyo]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

Daffodils flowering in December isn't unusual of late if the mild temps keep up into November I suspect we'll be seeing the first signs of spring poking through the ground in December

Yes depressingly familiar in the last few years.

[Methuselah]

And, if we're really luck, we might catch a glimpse of Sydney lying on his sun-lounger?

[Allseasons-Si]

delete

Edited October 12, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

And, if we're really luck, we might catch a glimpse of Sydney lying on his sun-lounger?

Hopefully not without a towel

[carinthian]

22 hours ago, carinthian said:

Hi Karyo, that Mid Latitude High Pressure Block has been there all summer and continues to hold some amazing heat over SW Iberia and NW Africa . The continued theme produces endless days of warm sunshine here at altitude in Central Euroland and cold misty days in the valleys. NW Britain , Scandinavia / Baltic Sea regions continues with unsettled flow.  I have lost count of how many times , I have be stuck under Euro High  at this time of year and looks like the latest models show no real incursion to change the stubborn pattern of recent times. Of course great to be out and about and enjoy the Autumn colours here in the mountains but I will not be happy until our first blizzard arrives. By the look of things , might have a bit of a wait !

Following the above post, this picture taken yesterday evening on the local mountain at 1900m asl is typical of conditions under Euro High.. Warm Autumn sunshine at altitude and cool dull  weather in the valley. Expecting a super warm weeked over here. No hurricane in sight!

C

[Summer Sun]

Still above 17c at almost 9pm

 

[damianslaw]

Oh dear a woeful day here, low cloud shrouding eveything in a dark grey cloak, it never got properly light all day, feeling much more like December. Very miserable. Southerly/SW long fetch airstreams whilst delivering very mild weather this time of year, also bring to these parts gloom.. Weekend looking equally grey, whilst all the headlines will be about the heat in the SE..

This October is turning into a gloom fest around here.. 

[carinthian]

54 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Still above 17c at almost 9pm

 

That's amazing warmth for NE England. The warmest places in Europe, apart from Iberia.

c

[NorthYorksWeather]

19 minutes ago, carinthian said:

That's amazing warmth for NE England. The warmest places in Europe, apart from Iberia.

c

18c here at 22.09pm, very likely to be 2nd warmest minimum this year.

Not sure we will beat 17.1c minimum recorded back in June.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Froze were the Days]

What is it with the BBC and Ireland?...they never even mention them in the slightest in any of the forecasts, more likely to hear about France or Holland. The above graphic just goes to prove that, what gust will they get there? (whatever it is the Beeb couldn't care less).