Autumn thoughts

[weirpig]

9 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

Its a shame the OPI didn't return, it obviously wasn't 100% but no type of prediction index ever is. It was linked in with Cohen's snow cover advance theory, the opi just gave us a number that reflected the pressure pattern across hemisphere, the pressure pattern that determines how fast the snow cover builds up! Its all linked, the OPI, taymr peninsula index and snow cover advance, basically one thing. The patterns throughout autumn set up what will happen in the following months, October is where things start to get interesting with regards to winter for me.

Ryan

Yep  i agree  wasnt the SAI  last year  the highest its ever been in regard to snowfall accumilation   and last winter was hardly the best   yet we still put faith in that.  

[coldwinter]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Yep  i agree  wasnt the SAI  last year  the highest its ever been in regard to snowfall accumilation   and last winter was hardly the best   yet we still put faith in that.  

They are all pieces of one very big puzzle, one of which I believe we know little about. So many different factors can influence what we experience but I think we have been very unlucky in recent years with regards to cold and snow. Last year had so much promise with an extremely weak polar vortex but things didn't quite fall right. That's why a lot of us on here love the snow so much! 

Ryan

[Seasonal Trim]

2 hours ago, coldwinter said:

They are all pieces of one very big puzzle, one of which I believe we know little about. So many different factors can influence what we experience but I think we have been very unlucky in recent years with regards to cold and snow. Last year had so much promise with an extremely weak polar vortex but things didn't quite fall right. That's why a lot of us on here love the snow so much! 

Ryan

BIB. Nail, head and all that jazz. If it wasn't so rare and we had a Siberian Winter every year, we wouldn't crave it like we do. It doesn't happen that often in this country, which is one if the reasons why (to me anyway) we love it so much. 

 

Part of the fun every Autumn/Winter on Netweather is the chase, and the people on here that contribute. 

[coldwinter]

30 minutes ago, Nizzer said:

BIB. Nail, head and all that jazz. If it wasn't so rare and we had a Siberian Winter every year, we wouldn't crave it like we do. It doesn't happen that often in this country, which is one if the reasons why (to me anyway) we love it so much. 

 

Part of the fun every Autumn/Winter on Netweather is the chase, and the people on here that contribute. 

Exactly! It makes it so magical when we actually see a few flakes off the white stuff actually falling from the sky! 

And I agree, some extremely knowledgeable people on here make it so much fun, I will be watching what happens very closely over the next month or two with the view of making a winter forecast. Seeing where the defined ridges and troughs set up and how the atmosphere shapes up is fascinating and crucial to any forthcoming forecast! 

Ryan 

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, Nizzer said:

BIB. Nail, head and all that jazz. If it wasn't so rare and we had a Siberian Winter every year, we wouldn't crave it like we do. It doesn't happen that often in this country, which is one if the reasons why (to me anyway) we love it so much. 

 

Part of the fun every Autumn/Winter on Netweather is the chase, and the people on here that contribute. 

Exactly i live in Edmonton Canada and the winters can be brutally cold compared to the UK..Do i love snow?..of course not its a literal pain in the backside..that was the one joy when i was back in the UK from 2014-16 there was no snow it was absolutely beautiful 

Edited September 21, 2017 by cheeky_monkey

[Methuselah]

33 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Exactly i live in Edmonton Canada and the winters can be brutally cold compared to the UK..Do i love snow?..of course not its a literal pain in the backside..that was the one joy when i was back in the UK from 2014-16 there was no snow it was absolutely beautiful 

I developed similar feelings about 'the white stuff' when I was up in The Highlands, CM...Once of twice was okay, but when it went on for weeks at a time - no thanks.

[Polar Maritime]

Lovely Autumn morning here today.

[sundog]

At 9:02pm tonight the sun will be leaving the northern hemisphere .

Really starting to notice now how much the leaves are starting to change colour. Definitely earlier then many recent autumn's and if my memory serves me correctly more like how it used to be .

[MP-R]

I must be one of the only people on here that thinks it's unusual to get a snowless winter here. Sure, it's not the norm, but given how different scenarios produce snow in this country, last year really was a case of rotten luck. A gappy sugar coating in mid Jan and that was it.

[Windchime72]

1 hour ago, sundog said:

At 9:02pm tonight the sun will be leaving the northern hemisphere .

Really starting to notice now how much the leaves are starting to change colour. Definitely earlier then many recent autumn's and if my memory serves me correctly more like how it used to be .

I agree mate, definitely noticed that the leaves are turning much earlier this year.

[Sky Full]

5 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

Lovely Autumn morning here today.

You were fortunate to see such a lovely dawn.  It's been pretty much wet and overcast here in the mornings for days and days on end although in fairness, it turned into a very nice afternoon and even better evening yesterday - plenty of sunshine and light winds, very acceptable.  Unfortunately, today it's back to the usual driving rain, gusty winds, low clouds and poor visibility which doesn't look likely to clear for most of the day - again.   One nice afternoon and evening doesn't make up for the daily drenching we are getting but at least I don't have to water the garden.....

i might have to Google 'how to build a dome' because I think that's what's needed over the house.  That or an ark, maybe.

[Nick L]

Local frost hollow of Chesham got to 0.7c last night, it's Autumn alright

[Bogman]

Noticed the first leaves falling yesterday, then the colour of the trees this morning.

Lovely mists yesterday on the drive into work, and a slight frost to boot.

 

Lovely-jubbly. 

[Summer Sun]

A look at October to December from the weather company

 

Quote

 

While the Northeast enjoys warm, dry weather, Southwest Europe to see cooler- and wetter-than-normal weather.

Andover, MA, 26 September 2017 — For the aggregate October-December period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, is forecasting above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across the eastern half of Europe and western Russia, with aggregate below-normal temperatures limited to U.K., Iberia, and parts of the western mainland.

“The September pattern, with cooler weather across much of the mainland and Scandinavian ridging driving warm/dry conditions across much of northern/eastern Europe, is expected to persist into October,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company. “As we move closer to winter, the dynamical forecast models are painting a similar picture, with any limited below-normal temperatures across western Europe. However, we are seeing some indications, through various indices and statistical models, that North Atlantic blocking may be a little more prevalent this year than we’ve seen in the previous four winters. While it is still quite early, we expect a higher frequency of cold spells this winter across northern/western Europe, especially later in the winter.”

For the October-December 2017 period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following temperatures:

October

• Nordic region – Warmer than normal

• U.K. – Slightly cooler than normal

• Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler west

• Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler west

November

• Nordic region – Warmer than normal

• U.K. – Warmer than normal

• Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

• Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal west, cooler east

December

• Nordic region – Colder than normal west, warmer than normal east

• U.K. – Colder than normal

• Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler west

• Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler west

 

https://business.weather.com/news/european-seasonal-outlook-the-weather-company-expects-a-warm-and-dry-fall-for-northern-eastern-europe?utm_campaign=&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

[Turnedoutniceagain]

December

• U.K. – Colder than normal

 

*fingers crossed*

[Ice Man 85]

Winter is over...

https://weather.com/en-GB/unitedkingdom/weather/news/early-forecast-warns-bitter-arctic-chill-uk

[philglossop]

I'll take warmer in Eastern Europe as like a mad fool I've booked a week in Zante starting 15 October.

Mind you it only cost £99

 

By the time I come back It'll be proper Autumn!

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, philglossop said:

I'll take warmer in Eastern Europe as like a mad fool I've booked a week in Zante starting 15 October.

Mind you it only cost £99

 

By the time I come back It'll be proper Autumn!

Octobers in Zante are quite warm and as September had extreme heat, the sea will be warm too.

[Yarmy]

7 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Winter is over...

https://weather.com/en-GB/unitedkingdom/weather/news/early-forecast-warns-bitter-arctic-chill-uk

That article is atrocious: who owns the weather.com domain?

[Froze were the Days]

51 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

That article is atrocious: who owns the weather.com domain?

agreed!...weather for layman's. Nothing scientific at all.

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

That article is atrocious: who owns the weather.com domain?

The Daily Express? That sort of thing seems right up their ally 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

3 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Winter is over...

https://weather.com/en-GB/unitedkingdom/weather/news/early-forecast-warns-bitter-arctic-chill-uk

What confuses me is it refers to late Winter, but the forecast is for mid to late Autumn and December, which is early Winter. It's a positive forecast if your a cold lover, but as others have already pointed out it seems as though it's not really based on much.

[feb1991blizzard]

Hello 2010!!!

[Ice Man 85]

22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello 2010!!!

That chart is like paint on clothes: it'd have a hard time coming off.

[Summer Sun]

A foggy night not had many of these in recent Septembers!