Autumn thoughts

[cheeky_monkey]

First snows of the season across western Alberta yesterday..2-5cm fell in Hinton..which is 150 miles west of here.

[Don]

Latest CFS 6 month look ahead from Gavs Weather Vids.  Continues to look pretty grim for those who like it cold!

 

[NeilN]

Sorry but I refuse to believe those models about winter. Its doing that because the last four have been mild and its a default setting. 

Don't forget, its too far in the future and it can change. Failing that....perhaps ask Kim-Jong Un to nuke the Azores High

[Lakigigar]

I think we will see an early winter snap, probably mid-november.

[Sunny76]

I think it's going to be colder this winter, when comparing it to anything we've seen since 2013. 

The cooling trend since mid July sort of indicates this, and September still continues this trend. This time last year, most of the uk were enjoying much warmer temps for the time of year.

[Ice Man 85]

56 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I think it's going to be colder this winter, when comparing it to anything we've seen since 2013. 

The cooling trend since mid July sort of indicates this, and September still continues this trend. This time last year, most of the uk were enjoying much warmer temps for the time of year.

And we'll be having them again. "Enjoying" won't be the word I'll be using though. We need the Azores High to go back where it came from and stay there. Otherwise, mild and wet will the order of the day....again...

[Weather-history]

Going into fog overnight

 

[Summer Sun]

October and November outlook from weather online

*October*

October is currently expected to be starting fair with some dry days and sunny spells. Probably warm as well. Conditions become more unsettled into the middle of the month with most rain affecting more southern areas. The later stages of the month are shown as remaining unsettled with periods of wind and rain at times.

*November*

There are early hints of a fair start to November. perhaps some early season frosts together with reasonable spells of sunshine. Becoming wet and windy in the middle of the month with heavier spells of rain before a return to drier, frostier weather later in the month.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/seasonal-outlook.htm

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

October and November outlook from weather online

*November*

There are early hints of a fair start to November. perhaps some early season frosts together with reasonable spells of sunshine. Becoming wet and windy in the middle of the month with heavier spells of rain before a return to drier, frostier weather later in the month.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/seasonal-outlook.htm

Sounds very similar to last November.

[Sunny76]

I hope it's not another mild Christmas period. I'm finding the run of frost free Christmas periods kind of tedious. 

[Lettucing Gutted]

5 hours ago, MP-R said:

Sounds very similar to last November.

November 2016 was way cooler and drier than what that forecast suggests.  If that forecast is correct, at best we will probably get a cross between November 2006 and 2008 - a mild and mixed November which hopefully at least won't be a repeat of 2009, 2011 and 2015.

Edited September 19, 2017 by Lettucing Gutted

[Don]

14 minutes ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

November 2016 was way cooler and drier than what that forecast suggests.  If that forecast is correct, at best we will probably get a cross between November 2006 and 2008 - a mild and mixed November which hopefully at least won't be a repeat of 2009, 2011 and 2015.

Well, I would take a repeat of November 2009 (albeit less wet due to flooding issues that month), if we were to also get a repeat of December 2009 and January 2010 to follow!!

Edited September 19, 2017 by Don

[MP-R]

37 minutes ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

November 2016 was way cooler and drier than what that forecast suggests.  If that forecast is correct, at best we will probably get a cross between November 2006 and 2008 - a mild and mixed November which hopefully at least won't be a repeat of 2009, 2011 and 2015.

Admittedly I only read the description in SS's post but a mix of 2006 and 2008 wouldn't be a disaster to be honest. As you say, the latter three novembers you mention would be pants (although 2009 was thundery here and produced some great convective skies).

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Going into fog overnight

 

And coming out of fog...

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Had my first conker fight with my 10yo son last night. Smashed him, my "7-er" is a beast !!!

We've skewered and laced loads more for him to take to school today. It's great when kids discover simple games like this.

[Nick L]

28 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Had my first conker fight with my 10yo son last night. Smashed him, my "7-er" is a beast !!!

We've skewered and laced loads more for him to take to school today. It's great when kids discover simple games like this.

Shame that all the conker trees are dying, could be an extinct game in a matter of years

[Yarmy]

Can't be too long now until the annual Daily Mail hunt to find a school that's banned it.

[Nick L]

6 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Can't be too long now until the annual Daily Mail hunt to find a school that's banned it.

The original story was a school taking the mick anyway, but anything for the mouth breathers to get angry about I guess

[damianslaw]

On 19/09/2017 at 18:32, Don said:

Well, I would take a repeat of November 2009 (albeit less wet due to flooding issues that month), if we were to also get a repeat of December 2009 and January 2010 to follow!!

A common theme of the autumns of 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012 which were all followed by colder than average winters, was the propensity for 'blocking' at times in the autumn, preventing a sustained zonal flow, indeed we had quite a bit of height rises to the east, and often an amplified meridional flow in the jet especially in November, frontal systems came unstuck somewhat. There can therefore be some clues and hints as to what we might expect come the winter based on the patterns of autumn. Last November despite being a bit colder than normal, came courtesy of heights to the west and over the country. Interestingly this September is shaping up to echo some of these hallmarks, look at how the trough is forecast to come unstuck in the days ahead with heights building very strongly to the NE, and so far we've had a much more amplified jet flow as well (alas it is only September.. but its been very different to recent ones in this respect..).

A jetstream aligned on a NW-SE trajectory around late October always sparks an interest as well in this respect, it is notoriously a time for SW zonal attack. In recent autumns this period has been very mild as well. A northerly interlude, anticyclonic conditions with heights either over, to the north or to the east, or cyclonic conditions might suggest its not business as usual, so I often look forward to that period of the autumn with keen interest. An inflated azores high, or a zonal onslaught or the typical trough/ridge pattern usually suggests otherwise and that is what we have had the last 4 years.

Edited September 20, 2017 by damianslaw

[Weather-history]

Whatever happened to the OPI? It was the talk of autumn 2014

 

[Nick L]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Whatever happened to the OPI? It was the talk of autumn 2014

 

It was crap, quite simply!

People got far too excited about this new thing they didn't really understand as it happened to give promise for a cold winter. If it was suggesting a mild winter, nobody would have been bothered.

Edited September 21, 2017 by Nick L

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Equinox tomorrow and then it's all downhill to Christmas

[sundog]

10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

 

A jetstream aligned on a NW-SE trajectory around late October always sparks an interest as well in this respect, it is notoriously a time for SW zonal attack. In recent autumns this period has been very mild as well. A northerly interlude, anticyclonic conditions with heights either over, to the north or to the east, or cyclonic conditions might suggest its not business as usual, so I often look forward to that period of the autumn with keen interest. An inflated azores high, or a zonal onslaught or the typical trough/ridge pattern usually suggests otherwise and that is what we have had the last 4 years

Part of Irish weather lore is that whichever direction the wind is coming from on Halloween is an indicator for the coming winter,so say a northerly on Halloween indicates a cold winter ahead etc etc etc. Perhaps there is a small truth to it to a certain extent.

[markyo]

2 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Equinox tomorrow and then it's all downhill to Christmas

Yep,counting the days down to the lovely dark nights in front of the fire. Just a shame its ruined by some old fart in a stupid red costume,thankfully i can opt out of Christmas

[coldwinter]

Its a shame the OPI didn't return, it obviously wasn't 100% but no type of prediction index ever is. It was linked in with Cohen's snow cover advance theory, the opi just gave us a number that reflected the pressure pattern across hemisphere, the pressure pattern that determines how fast the snow cover builds up! Its all linked, the OPI, taymr peninsula index and snow cover advance, basically one thing. The patterns throughout autumn set up what will happen in the following months, October is where things start to get interesting with regards to winter for me.

Ryan