Autumn thoughts

[Don]

1 hour ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Those are some straws!

Yeah, that's about all coldies have these days!

[Dancerwithwings]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Yeah, that's about all coldies have these days!

Did someone mention straws......... Now that's where I left it

 

[Weather-history]

Notice something odd as I was driving today, the amount of leaf litter on pavements and side of roads and leaves falling off trees and they were leaves that had changed colour as well. As I was driving through Monton Green, it looked more like October than late August with the leaves falling. It's a good area to take autumnal photos of trees changing colour. 

Not sure why the leaves are falling off now? It's not been dry at all.

[Summer Sun]

Final seasonal model round up from Gavin P

Very strong signal for significantly warmer than average autumn from most of the models - precipitation wise probably above average as well 

 

 

Edited August 26, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Ice Man 85]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Final seasonal model round up from Gavin P

Very strong signal for significantly warmer than average autumn from most of the models - precipitation wise probably above average as well 

 

 

I saw that earlier. Another mild, wet, stormy muckfest on the cards. We need a tectonic shift to push the UK to where Greenland is now.

[Christopher]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Notice something odd as I was driving today, the amount of leaf litter on pavements and side of roads and leaves falling off trees and they were leaves that had changed colour as well. As I was driving through Monton Green, it looked more like October than late August with the leaves falling. It's a good area to take autumnal photos of trees changing colour. 

Not sure why the leaves are falling off now? It's not been dry at all.

Noticed the tree showing signs of Autumn the last two weeks here with leaves starting to fall. Been a lot of rain the last few weeks here too. 

I don't remember the leaves changing at this time of year before.  

[Frost HoIIow]

9 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Those are some straws!

I'm not taking it seriously. Of course if it did happen great!

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, Ice Man 85 said:

I saw that earlier. Another mild, wet, stormy muckfest on the cards. We need a tectonic shift to push the UK to where Greenland is now.

Which, after all, is the norm for Autumn.

[Ice Man 85]

Just now, Frost HoIIow said:

Which, after all, is the norm for Autumn.

Seems to be, sadly. It usually precludes a mild, wet winter too though (has done in recent years anyway).

[Frost HoIIow]

9 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Seems to be, sadly. It usually precludes a mild, wet winter too though (has done in recent years anyway).

Generally I don't waste time pattern matching - because Autumn 2009 was very wet with severe flooding across the UK, especially November which was the wettest since 1914. The following Winter was the coldest since at least the mid 80's. See here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Great_Britain_and_Ireland_floods

Also Autumn 2000 was the wettest on record but the following Winter was colder & had more snow than the last few we have experience since 2013.

 

 

Edited August 26, 2017 by Frost HoIIow

[Northernlights]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Notice something odd as I was driving today, the amount of leaf litter on pavements and side of roads and leaves falling off trees and they were leaves that had changed colour as well. As I was driving through Monton Green, it looked more like October than late August with the leaves falling. It's a good area to take autumnal photos of trees changing colour. 

Not sure why the leaves are falling off now? It's not been dry at all.

The very  same thing is happening here almost a month ahead of normal.    Just put a comment on the Scottish thread earlier. Daylight response with lots of spring, early summer sunshine ?or something more unusual like rising background CO2 levels forcing the trees to grow too fast.?

[JeffC]

4 hours ago, Northernlights said:

The very  same thing is happening here almost a month ahead of normal.    Just put a comment on the Scottish thread earlier. Daylight response with lots of spring, early summer sunshine ?or something more unusual like rising background CO2 levels forcing the trees to grow too fast.?

Or reduced solar output giving trees false autumn signal?

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, JeffC said:

Or reduced solar output giving trees false autumn signal?

Its not been that dull, not to the levels of August 2008.

[Weather-history]

8 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Generally I don't waste time pattern matching - because Autumn 2009 was very wet with severe flooding across the UK, especially November which was the wettest since 1914. The following Winter was the coldest since at least the mid 80's. See here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Great_Britain_and_Ireland_floods

Also Autumn 2000 was the wettest on record but the following Winter was colder & had more snow than the last few we have experience since 2013.

 

 

Autumn 2009 was a funny one.  September 2009 wasn't too bad, it was comfortably drier than average. It wasn't actually a bad month, better than at least one of the summer months of that year, IMO.  All the excess rainfall fell during the November. October was close to average rainfall.

Autumn 2000 was a rainfest. Unbelievable how much rain fell from mid September to almost mid December. I think there was only 3 days of no measurable rain recorded at Manchester Airport during the whole of October and November.

Edited August 27, 2017 by Weather-history

[Spikey M]

8 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Seems to be, sadly. It usually precludes a mild, wet winter too though (has done in recent years anyway).

Which again is the norm, unfortunately.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

35 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Autumn 2009 was a funny one.  September 2009 wasn't too bad, it was comfortably drier than average. It wasn't actually a bad month, better than at least one of the summer months of that year, IMO.  All the excess rainfall fell during the November. October was close to average rainfall.

Autumn 2000 was a rainfest. Unbelievable how much rain fell from mid September to almost mid December. I think there was only 3 days of no measurable rain recorded at Manchester Airport during the whole of October and November.

Nov 2000, sucked, (least I had the 'new' Atlantic 252 though!) tenpin league was rained off on Nov 7th

[stainesbloke]

Would be nice to have a proper mixture of weather types this Autumn. Lots of calm and sunny days with frost and fog by night, interspersed with milder, rainier spells would be good.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

13 hours ago, Christopher said:

Noticed the tree showing signs of Autumn the last two weeks here with leaves starting to fall. Been a lot of rain the last few weeks here too. 

I don't remember the leaves changing at this time of year before.  

I've noticed that here as well.  Some trees seemed to be fully green, while others had almost fully turned.

[Northernlights]

11 hours ago, Northernlights said:

The very  same thing is happening here almost a month ahead of normal.    Just put a comment on the Scottish thread earlier. Daylight response with lots of spring, early summer sunshine ?or something more unusual like rising background CO2 levels forcing the trees to grow too fast.?

A lot of conifers are showing signs of yellowing needles as well..Could this all go back to the very dry winter ,spring and early summer to mid July and be the result of earlier drought conditions

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

There's been some controversy here over the past couple of years regarding the accuracy or otherwise of the seasonal CFSv2 model; I suggest that the September ppn. anomaly mentioned in the above video is a possible test of its accuracy in that it seems to be predicting a wet September and dry October, with November being drier in the south west and wetter further north east.

[philglossop]

It's funny about trees turning but my Father and I said the same last week. Yes I know there's a fungus affecting Horse Chestnuts but looking across to the National Trust Park at Saltram which I can see from my flat I'd  say we are a good couple of weeks ahead here. The trees are certainly a much darker green compared to this time last year.

Nature has a funny way of predicting things...

Edited August 27, 2017 by philglossop

[Spikey M]

There seems to be a lot of trees turning here too, although after a dull 6 weeks I think it's just the Autumnal version of Daffodils rearing their heads on a mild January morning. 

Summer time has temporarily returned now, anyway, so let's see if we can get some greenery back.

[jvenge]

I noticed the trees start to turn here when the night time temperatures dip below the mid teen range. Even if we still hit 25-30 during the day, it is below 15 at night, which seems to bring on the autumnal look. 

 

[JeffC]

On 27/08/2017 at 06:36, Weather-history said:

Its not been that dull, not to the levels of August 2008.

I reckon it has here, yesterday was a dull fest almost all day with showers in the morning when MetO had us with  sunny intervals, today similar!

And I'm not necessarily talking about whether it's been cloudy or clear, more the amount of solar output the leaves have been receiving...

Edited August 28, 2017 by JeffC

[Weather-history]

50 minutes ago, JeffC said:

I reckon it has here, yesterday was a dull fest almost all day with showers in the morning when MetO had us with  sunny intervals, today similar!

And I'm not necessarily talking about whether it's been cloudy or clear, more the amount of solar output the leaves have been receiving...

Don't follow your solar output logic? The biggest factor that affects solar output or input on earth are clouds then probably aerosols in the atmosphere then solar eclipses. 

 

 

 

Edited August 28, 2017 by Weather-history