Autumn thoughts

[Seasonality]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Autumn forecast from the weather company

•  

https://business.weather.com/news/seasonal-outlook-the-weather-company-says-warmth-and-dryness-to-persist-in-eastern-europe-this-autumn

How accurate has this company been in the past?

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

How accurate has this company been in the past?

As far as I know this company is really new, though I stand to be corrected.

Edited August 22, 2017 by Guest

[Seasonality]

13 minutes ago, BREIFMAN11 said:

As far as I know this company is really new, though I stand to be corrected.

I think I've seen their forecasts for a few years now. I found a reuters article about their 2011/2012 forecast for Europe where it was quoted ""During the last couple of years, a strong negative phase of the NAO has been dominant, which has resulted in very cold winters. It does not appear that this extreme negative NAO phase will occur again this winter, which, we think, will result in a much warmer winter," Ironically there was a deadly cold wave in Europe in late January and into February of 2012. (didn't affect the UK though)

[Summer Sun]

2 hours ago, BREIFMAN11 said:

As far as I know this company is really new, though I stand to be corrected.

Fairly new under the current name they were previously WSI

[MP-R]

22 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Evening @MP-R 
I have to be honest I don't recall much about autumn 2010 as I was well at all... But I do remember the September being changeable but pleasant, and I also remember a big wind storm one Novembers evening.
But take it from me autumn 2012 was beautiful 
Stunning colours, a September that managed to give us one last burst of summer heat, before giving us a touch of frost, October was also a stunning month, and November... I'd take a re-run of 2012 no problem. 

Evening @lassie23 
I do hope so... I do love misty, foggy autumn mornings 

Ah yes, I was still here in the September. A nice warm first week, then the wettest week of any month I've ever recorded at the end! Obviously set the trend for the autumn as there appeared to be another two major rainfall events in the November and the grotty Christmas (which I was home for!).

[jvenge]

14 hours ago, Seasonality said:

I think I've seen their forecasts for a few years now. I found a reuters article about their 2011/2012 forecast for Europe where it was quoted ""During the last couple of years, a strong negative phase of the NAO has been dominant, which has resulted in very cold winters. It does not appear that this extreme negative NAO phase will occur again this winter, which, we think, will result in a much warmer winter," Ironically there was a deadly cold wave in Europe in late January and into February of 2012. (didn't affect the UK though)

Ohhh is the winter talk starting already? :-)

Not sure if it is worth thinking about until October/November or so. 

[karyo]

47 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Ohhh is the winter talk starting already? :-)

Not sure if it is worth thinking about until October/November or so. 

Although it is tempting, I agree with you. 

It will be interesting to see what will be the picture in tropical Pacific by then. Over the last few months we've gone from weak el nino to neutral positive and now it looks like neutral negative is more likely. We could even see a la nina develop but it should be weak.

[jvenge]

23 minutes ago, karyo said:

Although it is tempting, I agree with you. 

It will be interesting to see what will be the picture in tropical Pacific by then. Over the last few months we've gone from weak el nino to neutral positive and now it looks like neutral negative is more likely. We could even see a la nina develop but it should be weak.

I don't think El Nino or La Nina influences the UK climate too much, or most of Europe for that matter. Correlation is weak, but I suppose people in the UK would be more looking forwarding to neutral negative or a weak La Nina than anything else.

 

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, jvenge said:

I don't think El Nino or La Nina influences the UK climate too much, or most of Europe for that matter. Correlation is weak, but I suppose people in the UK would be more looking forwarding to neutral negative or a weak La Nina than anything else.

 

Regarding the UK and northwest Europe, I think the enso is very important. Further east, not so much as you can still get a blocking high and cold conditions while the UK remains under the oceanic influence.

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, jvenge said:

Ohhh is the winter talk starting already? :-)

Not sure if it is worth thinking about until October/November or so. 

Oh no! I didn't mean to derail the thread! Personally I think any discussion of winter is pointless right now. Was just commenting on whether WSI were considered a reliable forecaster. No point commenting on winter so early on, models have output of course and experts have opinions but before August is even over it is 'just for fun' to put it politely. Lets get back to discussing Autumn. For me, I'd also love to see a really good quality autumn leaf season in the UK, so often it falls flat compared to other places. Bright autumn colours really add to the season I think.

[Seasonality]

35 minutes ago, jvenge said:

I don't think El Nino or La Nina influences the UK climate too much, or most of Europe for that matter. Correlation is weak, but I suppose people in the UK would be more looking forwarding to neutral negative or a weak La Nina than anything else.

 

This is a useful link. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina/enso-impacts But you're right, general consensus is that ENSO effects on Europe are controversial and difficult to analyse as it is only one of several factors, and tends to have a weak influence which can be overridden. 

[jvenge]

Started to notice the trees here are on the turn. Can't say its a good look just yet.

[Cleeve Hill View]

Peering out the window this morning - first real signs of Autumn mornings ,  windless , clear , cool with a mist descending over the fields behind the house until the sun burns it all off.  

All set up for the Bank Holiday weekend which is usually the first date when we enter the gradual summer decline into a benign commencement of autumn stillness which appears to be most definitely knocking at the door.  

View was so good I uploaded my first piccy to my gallery, and am now thinking of taking the same view each month to see the progression into Winter

Edited August 25, 2017 by Waay to much Wetness

[Turnedoutniceagain]

1 hour ago, Waay to much Wetness said:

Peering out the window this morning - first real signs of Autumn mornings ,  windless , clear , cool with a mist descending over the fields behind the house until the sun burns it all off.  

All set up for the Bank Holiday weekend which is usually the first date when we enter the gradual summer decline into a benign commencement of autumn stillness which appears to be most definitely knocking at the door.  

View was so good I uploaded my first piccy to my gallery, and am now thinking of taking the same view each month to see the progression into Winter

Same here

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Not long now til we hear the weather forecasters telling us about 'ground frosts in the isolated glens of Scotland'

[sundog]

On Friday, August 18, 2017 at 19:07, Weather-history said:

Most of the time it in that period was warmer than average! Summers, autumns, springs, winters.

Well indeed that maybe the case ,but getting  a warm sept would seem to mean a likelyhood of a continuation of a warm period for at least a few more months, so little chance of a decent winter. Thats the way i would look at it.

 

Low and behold it looks like this sept starting off on a warm and dry note hmmmmmmmm................yyyyaaawwwnnn.

Edited August 25, 2017 by sundog

[Summer Sun]

ECM has autumn starting on a summery note

Edited August 25, 2017 by Summer Sun

[MP-R]

20 minutes ago, sundog said:

Well indeed that maybe the case ,but getting  a warm sept would seem to mean a likelyhood of a continuation of a warm period for at least a few more months, so little chance of a decent winter. Thats the way i would look at it.

 

Low and behold it looks like this sept starting off on a warm and dry note hmmmmmmmm................yyyyaaawwwnnn.

Not for long, low pressure knocking on the door by the 4th. May be of the warm variety though if it dives SW ahead of the U.K.

[Ice Man 85]

42 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM has autumn starting on a summery note

ECM can go to hell.

[Summer Sun]

12z maintains a settled and warm start to Autumn

[Ice Man 85]

8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

12z maintains a settled and warm start to Autumn

So another Autumn/Winter with above average temps and more storms than you can count looks to be on the cards.

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

So another Autumn/Winter with above average temps and more storms than you can count looks to be on the cards.

Sounds ok to me, should keep heating costs down and no elderly or vulnerable will die from cold  

[Ice Man 85]

4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Sounds ok to me, should keep heating costs down and no elderly or vulnerable will die from cold  

I see what you did there

[Frost HoIIow]

An early xmas cracker!

Edited August 25, 2017 by Frost HoIIow

[Ice Man 85]

12 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

An early xmas cracker!

Those are some straws!