Autumn thoughts

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

I seem to remember back in May? the long range models and pros for that matter, all pointing towards a very warm/hot at times August..........

Do you mean the long range 'Daily Mail' model.....wont be long....coldest winter in a 100 years coming out soon.

[DAVID SNOW]

15 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Do you mean the long range 'Daily Mail' model.....wont be long....coldest winter in a 100 years coming out soon.

Not the mail no, I think it was a long range model from Bognor, tall girl, well over 6 foot.

[comet]

I am hoping that we do not see a propensity for blocking to the east, northeast during September like we have the last few years.as I feel this is detrimental to the upcoming winter for our neck of the woods. Of course many will say that this has no bearing on what may lay ahead during the winter months but after looking through past h500 archive charts imho the Autumn synoptic weather patterns do have an impact through the December - February period both up in the stratosphere and lower down into the troposphere. It also appears to me that mid Atlantic ridging up into Greenland during September into October is very important rather than just a - AO signature  and is likely to be repeated during the winter months giving a greater likelihood of a - NAO winter.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

14 hours ago, comet said:

I am hoping that we do not see a propensity for blocking to the east, northeast during September like we have the last few years.as I feel this is detrimental to the upcoming winter for our neck of the woods. Of course many will say that this has no bearing on what may lay ahead during the winter months but after looking through past h500 archive charts imho the Autumn synoptic weather patterns do have an impact through the December - February period both up in the stratosphere and lower down into the troposphere. It also appears to me that mid Atlantic ridging up into Greenland during September into October is very important rather than just a - AO signature  and is likely to be repeated during the winter months giving a greater likelihood of a - NAO winter.

 

This is something that Gavin P has touched upon in one of his videos (last year I think it was). It was historically the case that N Atlantic/Greenland blocking during autumn is allied to a heightened chance of this repeating during the winter.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

On ‎18‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 20:37, Polar Maritime said:

1st longlegs spotted here stuck to my window.

Spooky, I saw my first one (well TWO actually) last night. Always a welcome harbinger of Autumn

[Sunny76]

I would love another winter that gives us a 1987 January snowfall, or Feb 1991, or snowfalls of 2009 and 10. 

[MP-R]

I wouldn't mind another autumn like 2010 - there really was a bit of everything. A changeable September, both warmth and first frosts in October but quite sunny, a stormy first half of November then early winter in the second half. Of course, the late November cold spell is unlikely to happen quite like that but an autumn like the rest of it is plausible. 

October 2003 and 2008 were also very pleasant autumn months in terms of freshness, the latter also featuring a warm spell earlier on but both turning cold in the second half. I've heard of October 2012 being touted as a nice autumn month here but as I wasn't here at the time I don't know.

[Seasonality]

Was it 2008 where it snowed in London in October?

[jvenge]

From autumn I'm hoping for mid 20s during the day and dipping below 15c at night time. It stayed above 22 degrees at night time for a few weeks and it is getting a little boring.

I also prefer a quick autumn. I hate not knowing what I can wear or not and it changing day to day. So, although I'll enjoy the cool down into winter, I'd prefer if it is a fairly constant cool down. Jumper one way and then shorts two days later doesn't do it for me!

[MP-R]

8 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Was it 2008 where it snowed in London in October?

Yep I think it was. Had thundersnow here on the 28th but very wet snow mixed with hail.

5 minutes ago, jvenge said:

From autumn I'm hoping for mid 20s during the day and dipping below 15c at night time. It stayed above 22 degrees at night time for a few weeks and it is getting a little boring.

I also prefer a quick autumn. I hate not knowing what I can wear or not and it changing day to day. So, although I'll enjoy the cool down into winter, I'd prefer if it is a fairly constant cool down. Jumper one way and then shorts two days later doesn't do it for me!

Haha you'd hate British summers!

[jvenge]

6 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Haha you'd hate British summers!

I had them for long enough :-) In fact, just about every season in the UK can be described as "changeable" :-)

[Weather-history]

Accuweather has produced an Autumn forecast for UK. Got to say, not rated their forecasts.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-uk-autumn-forecast-will-an-indian-summer-revive-the-warm-weather/70002514

 

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, MP-R said:

I wouldn't mind another autumn like 2010 - there really was a bit of everything. A changeable September, both warmth and first frosts in October but quite sunny, a stormy first half of November then early winter in the second half. Of course, the late November cold spell is unlikely to happen quite like that but an autumn like the rest of it is plausible. 

October 2003 and 2008 were also very pleasant autumn months in terms of freshness, the latter also featuring a warm spell earlier on but both turning cold in the second half. I've heard of October 2012 being touted as a nice autumn month here but as I wasn't here at the time I don't know.

The Autumns of 2008, 2010 and 2012 were very pleasing in my opinion. All brought varied fayre, with mixed Septembers, followed by some decent frosts in October and foggy settled conditions at times, late Oct 2008 brought an early taste of winter, with widespread lowland snowfall, quite rare, ditto Oct 2012 brought a cold shot with some localised snowfalls in the north, and 2010 saw a bit of cold northerly latter half of the month. Nov 2008, 2010 and 2012 were very good for early winter cold, 2010 exceptionally so, 2008 brought mixed conditions with some decent frost, very cold at the end, likewise 2012 was quite chilly with decent frosts at the end.

I'd take an autumn like 2008, 2010 or 2012 but with a warm settled week in the first half of September.. not too much to ask for. Recent autumns have been far too mild and no repeat of 2013 or 2015 please. I did like last November though.

Edited August 21, 2017 by damianslaw

[DAVID SNOW]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Accuweather has produced an Autumn forecast for UK. Got to say, not rated their forecasts.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-uk-autumn-forecast-will-an-indian-summer-revive-the-warm-weather/70002514

 

If they are hinting at an Indian Summer in September, then that's wrong for starters, a warm spell in September does not constitute an Indian Summer, perhaps they should edit, and go for October instead.

[Emz by the Thames]

8 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Was it 2008 where it snowed in London in October?

Yes - on 28th October, I  got stuck in High Wycombe for hour and there was only about 4cms of snow!

[lassie23]

I think this autumn will mostly be calm and sunny with a high October fog index

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

 

I'd take an autumn like 2008, 2010 or 2012 but with a warm settled week in the first half of September.. not too much to ask for. Recent autumns have been far too mild and no repeat of 2013 or 2015 please. I did like last November though.

Agreed! October last year was quite nice too. Couldn't deal with another November 2015 though!

[Dangerous55019]

I have to say that on my evening walk across the fields with the hound this evening, I've noticed that many trees are now starting to gain their autumn plumage 

[Dangerous55019]

8 hours ago, MP-R said:

I wouldn't mind another autumn like 2010 - there really was a bit of everything. A changeable September, both warmth and first frosts in October but quite sunny, a stormy first half of November then early winter in the second half. Of course, the late November cold spell is unlikely to happen quite like that but an autumn like the rest of it is plausible. 

October 2003 and 2008 were also very pleasant autumn months in terms of freshness, the latter also featuring a warm spell earlier on but both turning cold in the second half. I've heard of October 2012 being touted as a nice autumn month here but as I wasn't here at the time I don't know.

Evening @MP-R 
I have to be honest I don't recall much about autumn 2010 as I was well at all... But I do remember the September being changeable but pleasant, and I also remember a big wind storm one Novembers evening.
But take it from me autumn 2012 was beautiful 
Stunning colours, a September that managed to give us one last burst of summer heat, before giving us a touch of frost, October was also a stunning month, and November... I'd take a re-run of 2012 no problem. 

24 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I think this autumn will mostly be calm and sunny with a high October fog index

Evening @lassie23 
I do hope so... I do love misty, foggy autumn mornings 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

On 11/08/2017 at 19:52, CreweCold said:

Indeed.

However, I do get the feeling those of us who are of a cold persuasion may not be laughing too much come the end of February. I would certainly not rule out another snowless winter for large swathes of lowland England and Wales.

If that happens I'm going to proclaim the large teapot as an accurate hypothesis.  If this is another mild winter, won't that be nearly unprecedented?

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Slow harvest this year.  A few barley fields are still up around the village. A wet August isn't just bad news for holidaymakers !!

[Seasonality]

10 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

If they are hinting at an Indian Summer in September, then that's wrong for starters, a warm spell in September does not constitute an Indian Summer, perhaps they should edit, and go for October instead.

Strictly speaking an Indian summer is a sunny and clear period with above average temperatures that occurs after the first frosts of autumn. The term itself was coined in the USA and there it is defined by the National Weather Service as occurring from late September to mid-November.

[Summer Sun]

Autumn forecast from the weather company

Quote

Cooler than Normal Weather to be Focused in Western Europe Next Few Months

Andover, MA, 22 August 2017 — For the aggregate September-November period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, is forecasting above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across the eastern half of Europe and western Russia, with aggregate below-normal temperatures limited to U.K., Iberia, and the western mainland.

“We’ve finally seen the emergence of long-awaited North Atlantic blocking in late July and August, which has resulted in cooler and wetter conditions for parts of western Europe,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company. “However, the hot and dry summer has persisted in Southeast Europe, and the warm, dry weather looks to continue there this autumn. As we head into the colder months of the year, we expect slightly below-normal temperatures to continue across western Europe, but don’t foresee any extreme early-season winter cold.

While there are some indications that this winter may be colder overall than the last few, most of the evidence still suggests another mild winter in most locations, especially in eastern Europe.”

For the September-November 2017 period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following temperatures:

September

• Nordic region – Cooler than normal

• U.K. – Cooler than normal

• Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler west

• Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

October

• Nordic region – Warmer than normal

• U.K. – Cooler than normal

• Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler west

• Southern Mainland – Cooler than normal, except central regions

November

• Nordic region – Warmer than normal

• U.K. – Slightly colder than normal

• Northern Mainland – Colder than normal

• Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal east

 

•  

https://business.weather.com/news/seasonal-outlook-the-weather-company-says-warmth-and-dryness-to-persist-in-eastern-europe-this-autumn

Edited August 22, 2017 by Summer Sun

[karyo]

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal east (?)

Looking at that map I guess they mean Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal west

[DAVID SNOW]

6 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Strictly speaking an Indian summer is a sunny and clear period with above average temperatures that occurs after the first frosts of autumn. The term itself was coined in the USA and there it is defined by the National Weather Service as occurring from late September to mid-November.

Yes, but I'm talking about their forecast for the weather in this country, and a widespread/harsh frost in September is not that common.