Autumn thoughts

[Dangerous55019]

9 hours ago, karyo said:

Last month people here posted the Autumn outlook from various seasonal models. Do we have an August update yet?

I'm on the case... Just getting the required charts from the Cansips model. 

[Dangerous55019]

As requested, here is a closer look at this coming autumn from the Canadian Cansips model.
Lets start off with September...



Ok... The 500mb flow does look a tad unsettled for next month, but the precipitation chart shows that it really isn't as bad as it looks, likewise (especially for the south east) it looks like it could well be a bit on the warm side. So on the whole, certainly not a bad month. 

October...

Now then, this does look like its gonna be an unsettled month, with low pressure, above average rainfall, and average temperatures... Hey, it's October. 

And finally November...

Again, November has a deep area of low pressure over most of Europe, and we are on the north western edge of it, as a result it doesn't look too wet at this stage, and again average temperatures.
So make of this what you will, but remember, average temperature in November will be (or hopefully should be) much cooler than they are now.
So on the whole, I've seen a lot worse, and for what its worth, with regards to looking for trends, I really do rate this model from Canada. 

[Dangerous55019]

Ok... I've just been to have a look at whats being forecast with the CFS daily run.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=10

I have to say with regards to October that this chart from the 00z run has stuck out!! 


Now ok, its for the 21st of October, so that means you need to take it with about this much salt...


But I wonder if this is one of the reasons why the Cansips model is going for an 'unsettled' looking October?
But from my experience as a total amateur, I find that the daily CFS run is sort of reliable give or take a week or two either way. 


... Anyone want to buy any battens? Lol 

Edited August 4, 2017 by Dangerous55019
Typo

[karyo]

Thank you Dangerous, I like the look of October and November. It blows any residual continental warmth away which is what we want to see.

[Bristawl Si]

It has felt like Autumn this week; here's hoping it warms up again with plenty of sun.....at least until end Oct .

Any Autumn cold or storms can do one until at least November

[Ice Man 85]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

It has felt like Autumn this week; here's hoping it warms up again with plenty of sun.....at least until end Oct .

Any Autumn cold or storms can do one until at least November

Well in my experience, if we get storms, its usually mild. If we get cold, there's usually no storms.

[MP-R]

On 8/3/2017 at 18:35, Ice Man 85 said:

I'm not sure. Several Control runs on the GFS show a spike around the 14/15th which worryingly coincides with something the ECM clusters were toying with the other day. All I know is we cannot have settled weather without heat in this country during the summer. Its either settled and too warm or pouring down with comfortable temps. I know which I'd choose.

We can actually. We're one of few places in the world that can experience settled weather in high summer and the temperature still remain between 20-25C. August 2007, June 2008, Summer 2011, June 2015 etc. all had settled spells without high temperatures. Unless of course your idea of heat starts at 20C...

[sundog]

Saw a few halloween decorations for sale in a shop yesterday,wont be long now.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

could be down to 2° in Scotland tonight, single figures also for other areas

[Nick L]

12 hours ago, sundog said:

Saw a few halloween decorations for sale in a shop yesterday,wont be long now.

Some pubs are advertising for Christmas now too...

[Nick L]

4 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

could be down to 2° in Scotland tonight, single figures also for other areas

Chesham down the road from here is already at 8c. It is a notable frost hollow in winter.

[NorthYorksWeather]

7.6c here last night which felt nice indeed.

Usual prone hollows down to 5c overnight across the region.

Drove to one in the Yorkshire Wolds first thing and there was some lovely shallow mist in the valleys

Coldest temp I could find overnight from a weather station was Dalby Forest, North York Moors at 4.7c

HURRY UP AUTUMN!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

could see breath at 7.15am today, autumn like now at times, and now windy and cloudy

[I remember Atlantic 252]

booooooo, getting dark earlier now

 

Edited August 6, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Evening thunder]

5.6C overnight here, but every summer month bar one in the last 10 years has managed a min below 7C. I'll probably be in summer mode until September as August is very much a summer month and looks/feels like it here (even if the forecast is more like September lol). Also daylight is of course still longer than anywhere south of us, and similar to what hot summer places like Rome etc get at the solstice.

I do like some aspects of Autumn, but it's much better after a good summer/August so it feels like proper seasonal change.. based on the outlook, and some longer range seasonal charts, we might just get similar conditions for several months!! 

[Nick L]

15 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

5.6C overnight here, but every summer month bar one in the last 10 years has managed a min below 7C. I'll probably be in summer mode until September as August is very much a summer month and looks/feels like it here (even if the forecast is more like September lol). Also daylight is of course still longer than anywhere south of us, and similar to what hot summer places like Rome etc get at the solstice.

I do like some aspects of Autumn, but it's much better after a good summer/August so it feels like proper seasonal change.. based on the outlook, and some longer range seasonal charts, we might just get similar conditions for several months!! 

Perpetual Autumn!  And you just know it will be the default pattern through "winter" too.

Edited August 6, 2017 by Nick L

[Mokidugway]

Late autumn means leaves ,lots and lots of leaves from the 40 odd deciduous trees around my property,tedious time indeed 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Late autumn means leaves ,lots and lots of leaves from the 40 odd deciduous trees around my property,tedious time indeed 

Cut the buggers down then!

[Mokidugway]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Cut the buggers down then!

Can't do that ed Birds would be jaffa cakessed off 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Autumn better do the disappearing act once December arrives, or this may very well happen!

[Mokidugway]

6 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Autumn better do the disappearing act once December arrives, or this may very well happen!

Can't say I'm looking forward to that  lol 

[ANYWEATHER]

Well one thing certain the nights are drawing in very quickly ,

[Mokidugway]

Just now, ANYWEATHER said:

Well one thing certain the nights are drawing in very quickly ,

Yep, like a wang on a cold night 

[stainesbloke]

Autumn well and truly back this week after a reasonable one day attempt at summer yesterday. 

[Evening thunder]

46 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Perpetual Autumn!  And you just know it will be the default pattern through "winter" too.

Haha yep that's what I was thinking, thought of August to December 2015 when the monthly anomalies started off negative and became progressively more positive.