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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards


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Holy crap not bad eh ? Am well chuffed with this

That was amazing. The closest to lightning i've ever been....this was Warlingham area (Just oustide Croydon)...    

What a night it was, one of the best storms I have ever seen, maybe even better than July 3rd 2015! I some many great pictures on here today, so I thought I would share some of mine.  

Posted Images

1 minute ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Still got me at 0% today and Wednesday, but 12% on Thurs, maybe I should take that and call myself lucky :D

still got 70% 10am-1pm tomorrow, 40% for Thursday and another 52% on Friday! I also don't want to brag but also 37% chance on Saturday and 15% on Sunday :rofl:

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9 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Fingers crossed and with Euro 4 on our side Bring it on.

Early days. Lets hope more than just the one place gets something tonight. I think that current storms got a few surprises left yet in terms of path; looks to me on rain radar like it might be heading for a split or two; and some of it has a definite northward shift in its track. We shall know soon enough!

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Just now, philglossop said:

Pulled off the A38 into Ivybridge. Too dangerous. Storm over us at the moment.

Its not over yet either more storms developing behind!

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12 minutes ago, Delka said:

anybody know the reasonings behind the silence from estofex today? 

They're a voluntary organisation which do not issue forecasts every day. 

I believe I am correct in saying they did not do so a couple of days ago when there was an outbreak in Greece.

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4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Well it's all certainly on the move.. 

Screenshot_20170718-142841.thumb.png.01efa97d449f66c281a31db2d80b7b64.pngScreenshot_20170718-142848.thumb.png.97e741295985b5d2d154daae006880b4.png

 

Fantastic sat 

I'd be grateful if it decided to put the brakes on to be honest.

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Hi there everyone, I just wondered if any of you kind people could help. I live near to Stokenchurch in Bucks and just wondered if we are likely to see any storms here tonight or tomorrow. 

It's just I have a new guide dog who is still in training and gets nervous at bangs etc and should I be in the firing line i will ask for someone to come and sit with him and me.

Your assistance and expertise is a lifeline for me. Thank you. 

I appreciate it's so hard to forecast but just wondered if I'm in a zone?

Thank you for your help and good luck everyone, stay safe 

Kindest regards.

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Looking at recent satellite, looks like two storm systems with an arc SE across northern France along northern edge of plume of further Tcu and potential storms to spread north

satellite.thumb.JPG.3b592c240265aadf93db6ee99aa7cfb2.JPG

Plenty of mid-level instability above warm nose at 800-850mb upstream  looking at 12z Brest and Trappes (Paris) radiosonde ascents - some shear evident with winds backed at the surface - so upscale growth into one or two MCS likely.

2017071812_Brest.thumb.gif.56436502aabba00bc97fe3523a35696d.gif2017071812_Trappes.thumb.gif.97ea1b8005a1db61bc5ec220fbabf4c5.gif

 

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Dont know why people in Berks, Hants etc are upset looks like it is heading straight for the South Coast in a NNE Direction as it encounters a better steering flow around 600/700hpa - I would be quite excited if I were them about now

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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Dont know why people in Berks, Hants etc are upset looks like it is heading straight for the South Coast in a NNE Direction as it encounters a better steering flow around 600/700hpa - I would be quite excited if I were them about now

Puzzling me too!

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2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Dont know why people in Berks, Hants etc are upset looks like it is heading straight for the South Coast in a NNE Direction as it encounters a better steering flow around 600/700hpa - I would be quite excited if I were them about now

Indeed...shame as to my untrained eye the W country may miss out now, as the western storms near Plymouth look to be potentially heading more into Wales, with the Eastern zone of storms heading more NE possibly leaving us with a nice gap (as also depicted in the updated MetOffice precip charts). Unless I am totally off here?

Early days though. A bit of a mess!

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