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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards


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2 minutes ago, Harry said:

Well that's comforting @Surrey - model wise, it's by far our best bet for later :D

06z Euro4 has London, Essex and East Anglia getting battered through tonight, I'll be missing out as usual no doubt :D

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Holy crap not bad eh ? Am well chuffed with this

That was amazing. The closest to lightning i've ever been....this was Warlingham area (Just oustide Croydon)...    

What a night it was, one of the best storms I have ever seen, maybe even better than July 3rd 2015! I some many great pictures on here today, so I thought I would share some of mine.  

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Just now, Nick L said:

06z Euro4 has London, Essex and East Anglia getting battered through tonight.

I know.....:yahoo::bomb::friends::drunk:

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From my inexperienced eye, storms forming to SE as a result of outflow from large thunderstorm system to west. Either way someone is going to get something today/tonight.

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Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

From my inexperienced eye, storms forming to SE as a result of outflow from large thunderstorm system to west. Either way someone is going to get something today/tonight.

Except for me no doubt lol

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And me.

Although I could post another twitter.

what's the durr-nuh all about?

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4 minutes ago, Harry said:

Well that's comforting @Surrey - model wise, it's by far our best bet for later :D

If it don't have a wobbler on the 12z we are laughing going of the euro4. But we shouldn't put all our eggs in one basket, it's an evolving event and will do what it does best and throw some curve balls. 

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9 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Wow! That lot approaching Cherbourg is really going for it now! Looks to be heading directly for London..

Hope I am wrong but I bet I know where that lot will end up ... Belgium ??

 

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9 minutes ago, Nick L said:

06z Euro4 has London, Essex and East Anglia getting battered through tonight, I'll be missing out as usual no doubt :D

I doubt it as I'm at home tonight, sorry Essex! :D

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7 minutes ago, Dami said:

And me.

Although I could post another twitter.

what's the durr-nuh all about?

A reference to the film Jaws, mate. 

Jaws is a 1975 American thriller film directed by Steven Spielberg and based on Peter Benchley's 1974 novel of the same name. In the story, a giant man-eating great white shark attacks beachgoers on Amity Island, a fictional New England summer resort town, prompting the local police chief to hunt it with the help of a marine biologist and a professional shark hunter. The film stars Roy Scheider as police chief Martin Brody, Robert Shaw as shark hunter Quint, Richard Dreyfuss as oceanographer Matt Hooper, Murray Hamilton as Larry Vaughn, the mayor of Amity Island, and Lorraine Gary as Brody's wife, Ellen. The screenplay is credited to both Benchley, who wrote the first drafts, and actor-writer Carl Gottlieb, who rewrote the script during principal photography.

Shot mostly on location on Martha's Vineyard in Massachusetts, the film had a troubled production, going over budget and past schedule. As the art department's mechanical sharks suffered many malfunctions, Spielberg decided to mostly suggest the animal's presence, employing an ominous, minimalistic theme created by composer John Williams to indicate the shark's impending appearances. Spielberg and others have compared this suggestive approach to that of classic thriller director Alfred Hitchcock. Universal Pictures gave the film what was then an exceptionally wide release for a major studio picture, over 450 screens, accompanied by an extensive marketing campaign with a heavy emphasis on television spots and tie-in merchandise.

Now considered one of the greatest films ever made, Jaws was the prototypical summer blockbuster, with its release regarded as a watershed moment in motion picture history. Jaws became the highest-grossing film of all time until the release of Star Wars (1977). It won several awards for its soundtrack and editing. Along with Star Wars, Jaws was pivotal in establishing the modern Hollywood business model, which revolves around high box-office returns from action and adventure pictures with simple "high-concept" premises that are released during the summer in thousands of theaters and supported by heavy advertising. It was followed by three sequels, none with the participation of Spielberg or Benchley, and many imitative thrillers. In 2001, Jaws was selected by the Library of Congress for preservation in the United States National Film Registry, being deemed "culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant".

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06z forecast modelling looks a lot better than the overnight modelling. Suggests French storms will pass over the south east of the UK with further initiation of elevated storms south west and south later this evening trundling on through to East Anglia. Key area to watch would be around Exeter this evening. Not sure how far north storms will get as things move a little faster eastwards than previous thought.

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14 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Hope I am wrong but I bet I know where that lot will end up ... Belgium ??

 

Let's hope it doesn't do one of them right angle turns to the right in the middle of the channel and then trundle up through the Netherlands and Belgium instead!! I think it should stay on course though. Counties like Hants/Sussex and Kent should get ready for some excitement this evening by the look of things! Very promising 

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6 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Let's hope it doesn't do one of them right angle turns to the right in the middle of the channel and then trundle up through the Netherlands and Belgium instead!! I think it should stay on course though. Counties like Hants/Sussex and Kent should get ready for some excitement this evening by the look of things! Very promising 

Fingers crossed and with Euro 4 on our side Bring it on.

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4 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

Still think there will be 2 zones today.

South West, Wales and into the Irish Sea early

SE Overnight from 2nd round

Watch the Bifurcating Jet over the Channel as this is key to where Storms will likely be today.

Usual suspects tomorrow I guess! 

Not a bad stab 4 hours ago! :D

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1 minute ago, robillustrates said:

I would quite enjoy another supercell like what hit Bournemouth July 3rd 2015, that was the most impressive storm I've ever been under in the uk. Shame that it looks highly unlikely.

Euro4 says hello sweet spot...we shall see

euro4.thumb.JPG.96876ba9b6ab8978ec322ddabc394241.JPG

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4 hours ago, Delka said:

85% of storms from netweather tomorrow midday, and the GFS is looking very good for storms locally.. not keeping my hopes up as the risk doesn't look too high but I'd happily take anything I can get.. my part of Norfolk seems to actually have done well compared to many other places in the UK for storms this year for the amount of days with storms, but they're never very big or last long which is a disappointment 

Still got me at 0% today and Wednesday, but 12% on Thurs, maybe I should take that and call myself lucky :D

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