Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

[BrickFielder]

43 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

The lobe of Vorticity out over the Bay of Biscay does not have quite the tail to the south that I was expecting

If I may ask what's the implication of this ?

 

It looks to me like the forecast initiation of storms forecast for this evening is linked to how far the trough extends south. So I would question where and when storms initiate.  You might end up with thundery rain in the south west or you could end up with a much more severe storm that predicted  due to being rooted in the boundary layer. Best guess is that perhaps things have become very interesting and it could alter the severity risk from storms.

[jamesthemonkeh]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That seemingly arbitrary distinction has bugged me for years...Does the definition 'thunderstorm' depend on the features inherent in the thing itself, or in how it's perceived by ground-based observers?

Personally if it is just a couple of rumbles, then I would call it a thundery shower.  There should be a linguistic distinction between that and something producing dozens or more strikes of lightning.

[Hodgheg]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

I think many in the Met Office and BBC are reluctant to use the term "thunderstorm" as it sounds too big and scary for the public to comprehend 

Thunderstorms!? Does that mean there might be mini tornadoes and heat lightning too? This requires a whole new thread somewhere. 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

I think many in the Met Office and BBC are reluctant to use the term "thunderstorm" as it sounds too big and scary for the public to comprehend 

Ah, I see; the meteorological equivalent of Brexit!

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Ah, I see; the meteorological equivalent of Brexit!

Pretty much. Nobody knows what it actually is and it more likely than not will end in disappointment

[Deeptricky74]

I think the best bet is to keep an eye on real time radar to see where storms are located and developing to have a realistic chance of pin pointing convective activity. As we are all aware thunderstorms by their nature can be very (and frustratingly) localised. But half the fun is the predicting of them I suppose :-)

[Mapantz]

MetO warning extended..

Feeling muggy here, but it's also blowing a hoolie!

[Jasper Foxx]

Looks like Cornwall is due a hammering in the next couple of hours. That cell from Biscay is certainly pepping up a little!

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

MetO warning extended..

Feeling muggy here, but it's also blowing a hoolie!

I just went on their website to look at the warnings, the first thing that struck me was how have they managed to make it even more user unfriendly than it already was?! 

I find it interesting that they no longer tell you when the warning was issued. So you have no idea if it's old or new.

[philglossop]

Starting to cloud up now from the South...

I'm off to Newton Abbot in a mo but it's looking promising here!

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I just went on their website to look at the warnings, the first thing that struck me was how have they managed to make it even more user unfriendly than it already was?! 

I find it interesting that they no longer tell you when the warning was issued. So you have no idea if it's old or new.

I know what you mean.

I've just spotted a time on the app:

[Nick L]

6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I know what you mean.

I've just spotted a time on the app:

Yeah it's on the app but not the website, strange.

[Darren Bown]

Alex Deakin's forecast on the metoffice specifically mentions those elevated storms tonight, described as not a lot of rain, but quite a bit of lightning. Then tomorrow morning's storms further north to be torrential.

Edited July 18, 2017 by Darren Bown

[Delka]

from someone unexperienced right here to my knowledge elevated storms tend to last longer?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Anyone else seen this?

(Courtesy of Tony Gilbert UKWW)

[RichmondWeather]

Oh my goodness, for the first time in ever it isn't tracking up the channel :O

[Delka]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Anyone else seen this?

(Courtesy of Tony Gilbert UKWW)

that is a very small area he's forecasting potential supercells and hail for.. surely you can't possibly give them a space that small as they could come in further west or east?

[Chris K]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Anyone else seen this?

(Courtesy of Tony Gilbert UKWW)

Lies...the Bristol shield will hold up.

[Wilxy]

3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Anyone else seen this?

(Courtesy of Tony Gilbert UKWW)

That definitely won't happen Bristol has a storm shield it will destroy it before it even gets close!

[Karl83]

3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Anyone else seen this?

(Courtesy of Tony Gilbert UKWW)

Oh my!

[samadamsuk]

1 minute ago, Delka said:

that is a very small area he's forecasting potential supercells and hail for.. surely you can't possibly give them a space that small as they could come in further west or east?

He is a very respected forecaster - seen him many times get it right! Could be malrborough downs for me then ?

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, Delka said:

that is a very small area he's forecasting potential supercells and hail for.. surely you can't possibly give them a space that small as they could come in further west or east?

He made a similarly ridiculously small area for tornado potential a couple of weeks ago. Specifically Berkshire...it didn't go well.

[Azazel]

2 minutes ago, Delka said:

that is a very small area he's forecasting potential supercells and hail for.. surely you can't possibly give them a space that small as they could come in further west or east?

I believe Tony's forecasts (with regards to predicting areas that might experience more profound weather effects) are experimental in the sense the areas highlighted are where the best parameters come together.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, Delka said:

that is a very small area he's forecasting potential supercells and hail for.. surely you can't possibly give them a space that small as they could come in further west or east?

In his defence he is making an advanced forecast here based on the most reliable models he has access to at this time.

He's going to release an updated on later in the afternoon hopefully - but did mention expecting it to cover some more easterly areas.

Regarding the supercell box: I agree with you, they're not usually very easy to contain in such a small area!

[weirpig]

Hirlam  going for something similar to what was posted above   West faring best   all up the western side of the country