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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Popular Post
Posted

Netwx-SR looking entertaining late Tuesday onwards. 

Jul 17 2017 6-32 PM - Edited.gif

It did really well on the last convective outbreak - we upgraded it to improve the convective detail and spin-up times shortly before that.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

first flying ant rampage of the season here and we all know what that means!!!!....( a ton of off-topic ant posts...lol)

anyhoos, baaaack on topic, looking promising for a good swathe of central/southern/SW England....good luck to all

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Mokidugway Maestro

Mokidugway

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Paul said:

Netwx-SR looking entertaining late Tuesday onwards. 

Jul 17 2017 6-32 PM - Edited.gif

It did really well on the last convective outbreak - we upgraded it to improve the convective detail and spin-up times shortly before that.

Direct hit , I'm liking it ,lol

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Thunderstruck Community Regular

Thunderstruck

Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
Posted
9 minutes ago, Paul said:

Netwx-SR looking entertaining late Tuesday onwards. 

Jul 17 2017 6-32 PM - Edited.gif

It did really well on the last convective outbreak - we upgraded it to improve the convective detail and spin-up times shortly before that.

Hmm.

Possibly some distant flashes off to the west at 23z but certainly not a direct hit...

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted (edited)

Euro 4 bucks the trend and takes the main area through the spine of the country east    Wales quite dry 

IMG_0787.GIF

Edited by weirpig
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Sparkiee storm Seasoned

Sparkiee storm

Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
Posted

Liking the look of that, that should save us in the storm starved Black country, with still not a single rumble yet, but hopefully we can get this as Paul said it did well last time.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

While we're all doing it, there is only so much point in looking at the models for this kind of event. We know there is going to be a swathe of instability drifting N/NW through tomorrow evening and night as pressure across the south falls. 

What pops up where is frankly a guessing game. If you're under the rainbow coloured zones on the MUCAPE charts you're in for a shout.

All I would politely ask is people do not sound the doom sirens until at least the very early hours (if at all). It could quite conceivably get to 9-10-11 o'clock before the atmosphere pops. 

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
11 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Liking the look of that, that should save us in the storm starved Black country, with still not a single rumble yet, but hopefully we can get this as Paul said it did well last time.

Black Country ? Thought you was from Walsall? :) 

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dusk Apprentice

dusk

Posted
  • Location: Telford, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy
  • Location: Telford, Shropshire
Posted
31 minutes ago, Paul said:

Netwx-SR looking entertaining late Tuesday onwards. 

Jul 17 2017 6-32 PM - Edited.gif

It did really well on the last convective outbreak - we upgraded it to improve the convective detail and spin-up times shortly before that.

I'll buy that for a dollar!

That last "proper" storm I witnessed was at work in Wolves back in July 2012, and that one had almost exactly the same track as the one in the clip above

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Sparkiee storm Seasoned

Sparkiee storm

Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Black Country ? Thought you was from Walsall? :) 

I am from Walsall,  Walsall is part of it, Wolverhampton isn't lol

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
1 minute ago, Sparkiee storm said:

I am from Walsall,  Walsall is part of it, Wolverhampton isn't lol

New thread me thinks :) and yes wolves is not . Anyway euro 4 is a pearler for the spine of the country in fact most areas are in with a shout . But will it go boom  been a bit of disappointment this season . Hopefully that will change 

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Sparkiee storm Seasoned

Sparkiee storm

Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
Posted
6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

New thread me thinks :) and yes wolves is not . Anyway euro 4 is a pearler for the spine of the country in fact most areas are in with a shout . But will it go boom  been a bit of disappointment this season . Hopefully that will change 

Yeah, plus I saw a few on here from the Black country too lol and yep hopefully we can get the frequent lightning we did back in 2015 but not getting hopes up, and will be happy with a few flashes and rumbles and a downpour :) 

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Puddy Galore Veteran

Puddy Galore

Posted
  • Location: Penn (by Seven Cornfields) Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy and frosty
  • Location: Penn (by Seven Cornfields) Wolverhampton
Posted
22 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

I am from Walsall,  Walsall is part of it, Wolverhampton isn't lol

mmmm, does that mean you are excluding me from any storms :cray::D

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Sparkiee storm Seasoned

Sparkiee storm

Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

mmmm, does that mean you are excluding me from any storms :cray::D

If it was me or some of the models, we would say no, you should see storms according to us lol, but I think that's a question to ask the weather gods themselves haha ;)

Or storm gods :) 

Edited by Sparkiee storm
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Cableguy Enthusiast

Cableguy

Posted
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
Posted

Surrey and much of the Souh East set to miss out again if latest Euro4 is to be believed, can't buy a storm down here nowadays.

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

Really hope this model is correct , we have had loads of" potential " thunderstorms this season and received zilch:nonono:

raised-eyebrows-o.gif

VIADUCT.jpg

post-5986-0-96303900-1439491213.gif

yippee.png

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toggerob Veteran

toggerob

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

Netwx-SR looks good for me, only a 10-mile shift eastwards and i'm within the core. Preferably I like staying on the edges of storms as I get to see more of the structure without sacrificing much visibility. 

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Another Kent clipper Enthusiast

Another Kent clipper

Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Hot
  • Location: London
Posted
18 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Netwx-SR looks good for me, only a 10-mile shift eastwards and i'm within the core. Preferably I like staying on the edges of storms as I get to see more of the structure without sacrificing much visibility. 

Plus there are actual vantage points in the Peak District unlike Manchester.  I'll have to make do w... a midnight drive could be on the cards

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

WRF NMM having none of it for the SE too. GFS and UKMO more keen however...let the battle of the models commence

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Biggin Rising Star

Biggin

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
Posted
3 hours ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Easier to read warning map of areas that may be affected by storms.

20106272_1048371015294007_866437790856717346_n.jpg

Yellow rain wtf, I am staying indoors then

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Biggin Rising Star

Biggin

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
Posted
2 hours ago, Paul said:

Netwx-SR looking entertaining late Tuesday onwards. 

Jul 17 2017 6-32 PM - Edited.gif

It did really well on the last convective outbreak - we upgraded it to improve the convective detail and spin-up times shortly before that.

Nothing for far SE from that ??

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Really hope this model is correct , we have had loads of" potential " thunderstorms this season and received zilch:nonono:

raised-eyebrows-o.gif

VIADUCT.jpg

post-5986-0-96303900-1439491213.gif

yippee.png

I really try not to get too hyped now-a-days however this does look very promising.

Im currently in Cheltenham and looks like it may be hit dead on..

I cant wait for estofex's forecast tomorrow. If there isn't a big Level2 over here i will be shocked.

 

Based on whats being progged, I suspect extremely frequent lightning, heavy rain and probably some very damaging winds.

 

BRING IT ON!

 

Edited by Lynxus
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