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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

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Surface pressure chart for 0100hrs Wedsnesday - but to be honest, I am a bit confused - this is a lot further South and East than I would expect and with regards to what this mornings charts showed....

You can see the shape of the trough on the lightning maps quite clearly, I feel?

Untitled2.thumb.png.0072fcebf6af9751a316771496def5f3.pngUntitled3.thumb.png.28ec422737463315665d740af0465e46.png

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3 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

sorry to put a spanner in the works lol 

To be fair, the forecast has always gone for a bit CIN for the far SE (Heathrow)

skew-t.thumb.gif.292dc2127709b732f16c56b2374d3a3e.gif

However, this is imported stuff, and all the forecasts are for elevated storms where the CIN may not be relevant.

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V concerned about that area just south of Falma that storm look like it has become surface based and stationary could lead to be server flash flooding 

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9 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Lightning activity over France appears to be waning, looking like an organised weather front instead of some big convective storms.... though Cornwall seems to be doing ok at least.

Wouldn't an organised weather front be the opposite of what most would want

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23 minutes ago, philglossop said:

Looking at the strikes map that's a storm towards Falmouth and Roseland Peninsula. Tracking N very slowly 

That storm has been in the same position for over an hour now. Don't want to move inland. Can hear thunder from where I am, 10 miles away , but it is sunny and warm at present 

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2 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

V concerned about that area just south of Falma that storm look like it has become surface based and stationary could lead to be server flash flooding 

This is the area your talking about (think you need to log into twitter) - First two vid of the area show hail. 

https://twitter.com/search?q=coverack&src=typd

 

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Just now, Gordon Webb said:

Wouldn't an organised weather front be the opposite of what most would want

Yup it's becoming more of a consolidated rain band but its still producing lightning at least, hopefully it will become more active again as it crosses the channel.

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TR12 is the postcode where the caravan site is, reliably informed that the field-flooding has now made it's way onto the main caravan site the family are staying on. For now it's just up to the first step of 3 leading to the door.

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Just got home from school, can't really be bothered to read through all the pages that have spawned since this morning, however, I do notice that those storms in the Channel seem to be heading my way!! :D 

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33 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Post copied from another UK weather forum, please delete if forbidden. 

 

 

"GFS 06Z upper air pattern for 00Z Wednesday (this is wind and divergence at 250 hPa) supports the idea of two main focii of supportive environments- one moving northwards over the West Country into Wales, the second moving ~NE across SE England. However, the MCS over NW France/Channel now spewing moisture and -ve vorticity aloft might be a big spanner in the works for the SE.
"

This Storm is starting to falter now so hopefully wont be much of a spanner for later on.

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3 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

TR12 is the postcode where the caravan site is, reliably informed that the field-flooding has now made it's way onto the main caravan site the family are staying on. For now it's just up to the first step of 3 leading to the door.

This webcam not too far from TR12  http://www.camsecure.co.uk/lizard_atlantic_house.html

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10 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

To be fair, the forecast has always gone for a bit CIN for the far SE (Heathrow)

skew-t.thumb.gif.292dc2127709b732f16c56b2374d3a3e.gif

However, this is imported stuff, and all the forecasts are for elevated storms where the CIN may not be relevant.

Indeed.

If you read the Estofex MD, for example, the CIN is the reason why there could be more organised potentially severe thunderstorms later. I.e CIN allows energy to build up under the cap, for the trough to remove it and boooom!!

Echo earlier concerns earlier re the MCS - these aren't always helpful. They could make it a bit yuk later.

What I would say however is the path of the MCS is now more favourable. About an hour ago it was making a track towards C/E Kent. Now its heading more towards London.

Edited by Harry
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1 minute ago, Harry said:

Indeed.

If you read the Estofex MD, for example, the CIN is the reason why there could be more organised potentially severe thunderstorms later. I.e CIN allows energy to build up under the cap, for the trough to remove it and boooom!!

Echo earlier concerns earlier re the MCS - these aren't always helpful. They could make it a bit yuk later.

Crapvection I think is the technical term :D

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59 minutes ago, pinkertonsurly said:

Sure does. I hate thunderstorms. Glad I don't live in the line of fire... Oh, wait a minute.

 

Don't worry sweetheart it's all cloudy out there LOL! :-D Split in 2 at the isle of wight!

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1 minute ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Looks like South Wales is gonna miss out!

Random cell just appeared west of Swansea.

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3 minutes ago, redphil57 said:

This webcam not too far from TR12  http://www.camsecure.co.uk/lizard_atlantic_house.html

Hoping my older bro took my advice of covering up his brand-new Toyota Hilux with whatever bed-sheets and cardboard on the outside that they could find. I'm guessing it's around 1'in sized hail within the precip?

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1 minute ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Looks like South Wales is gonna miss out!

South Wales looks in the firing line to me from the storm over Exeter and other parts of Devon?

Nice gap opening for Bristol though...

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The stuff heading up the M5 now over Exeter is on the last few radar grabs starting to intensifying and is producing lightening. Here is where South Wales should be looking. 

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2 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Hoping my older bro took my advice of covering up his brand-new Toyota Hilux with whatever bed-sheets and cardboard on the outside that they could find. I'm guessing it's around 1'in sized hail within the precip?

I doubt there's hail big enough to cause bodywork damage! 1 inch hail wouldn't be enough to cause bodywork damage, you're looking at golfball size for that. His Hilux should be fine! :)

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1 minute ago, Chris K said:

South Wales looks in the firing line to me from the storm over Exeter and other parts of Devon?

Nice gap opening for Bristol though...

You know what, up until this morning it looked a shoe in for storms to track from Bristol up the Welsh border/W Midlands and to my humble abode. Now it looks like a lot of the midlands might be in a dry zone!

Could not make this up. Can't buy a storm round here.

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Warminster in Wiltshire has got a yellow weather Waring for thunderstroms and I am still wait for one to come  my way 

Edited by tomdewey

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Inch hail can trash  car sunroofs though  I know from personal experience i :nonono:

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