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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking very interesting indeed for the usual parts. The Mediterranean is currently getting oven baked at the moment, so no surprise there's huge amounts of energy going to be released somewhere. 

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I've never heard that 'brown willy effect' term either but it is a very frequent occurence to have wind convergence producing a shower streamer from mid Cornwall all the way to the North London area.

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More heavy rain but no thunder or lightning : P The skies even look like they have the potential to do something but they never do

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44 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

I've never heard that 'brown willy effect' term either but it is a very frequent occurence to have wind convergence producing a shower streamer from mid Cornwall all the way to the North London area.

First time I've ever heard of it! surely only to attract the banter?! Or maybe I'm missing something :cc_confused:!! 

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apart from one shower and probably another in next few minutes not been a bad day here with a lot of the activity going north or south of me

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There has been some nice cloudscapes this evening,if you can't get a storm then some nice cloud pics come second best:D

these all viewing to my south/southeast

the one SE and the second and third pic taken to the south with ten mins intervals ,the fourth one zoomed in

DSC01489.thumb.JPG.34b01e6f00fddd3c366cad3e40d3567c.JPGDSC01490.thumb.JPG.b32801078a92feec75046736ddf393ce.JPGDSC01494.thumb.JPG.9de41ab90ec19b96a7476756ec1641cc.JPGDSC01495.thumb.JPG.821283b31bf9a99c714945628f84d389.JPG

then some ten-fifteen minutes later and starting to develope a hail core

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and one cell developing to my south/southwest behind the other one

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and a panno from the two SE/south earlier

DSC01488.thumb.JPG.ae9948ed53347a0b8dce041fcb66f828.JPG

 

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Beautiful cloudscape's here today bit like the ones posted above.

Narrowly missed out on a storm today that just passed to our south and east, managed to get a still of some lightning from a video I took.

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Then a storm later missed us to the north but had a great view of the anvil as it headed out towards the North York Moors.

storm2.thumb.jpg.4f3090be2a7461ead7faa15c28ddd22a.jpg

 

 

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2 hours ago, Andy Bown said:

I've never heard that 'brown willy effect' term either but it is a very frequent occurence to have wind convergence producing a shower streamer from mid Cornwall all the way to the North London area.

I thought it was something to do with Lady di and elton bog :pardon:

 

It is this here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_Willy_effect

 

 

 

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Only the one rumble of thunder which was last night but the rain at the time was something else with 23.6mm falling in less than 2 hours. 

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Looks like there will be a large swathe of severe  storms over the next few days stretching from the Pyrenees NE across France, Germany and into Poland along a slow-moving boundary that separates hot and humid conditions over southern Europe and the cool and changeable conditions over NW/N Europe. Would love to be in these areas to watch supercells roll through, though could be some nasty conditions.

Back home, more benign showery weather thanks to the cool conditions, but nonetheless, we could see non-severe storms today, mostly Scotland, N. Ireland and parts of N England - where lapse rates will be steepest. Chance of seeing a brief tornado / waterspout in the NW - where surface wind convergence and plenty of LL instability combined with light winds aloft will be ideal conditions for them.

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_310717.thumb.png.9b203563881b3551477eda28a0f16641.png

Issued 2017-07-31 09:11:19
Valid: 31/07/2017 06z to 01/08/2017 06z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - MONDAY 31ST JULY 2017

Synopsis

Upper low and collocated surface low pressure system will be parked off the west coast of Scotland during Monday. A cool and unstable showery southwesterly flow will cover the UK, surface heating will allow numerous showers become widespread away from SE UK, thunderstorms most likely for Scotland and N. Ireland.

... SCOTLAND, N. IRELAND & N ENGLAND ...

An upper cold pool across northern British Isles associated with upper low centred west of Scotland will create steepest lapse rates across Scotland, N. Ireland and N England  ... so here will see the greatest risk of thunderstorms developing with surface heating in sunny spells. Vertical shear will be generally weak across these areas with stronger instability, though surface wind convergence along with troughs in the flow combined with lighter upper winds may bring slow-moving lines of showers/storms that could bring a risk of localised flooding. Any storms maybe accompanied by hail and gusty winds too. 

Across the Western Isles, western Scotland and northern side of N. Ireland - likely local surface breeze convergence, low LCLs (cloud bases), light winds aloft and strong low-level instability will be ideal conditions for rotating non-mesocyclone updrafts, so potential for some brief tornado or waterspout sightnings here.

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Caught this cell looking southwards around 8pm last night as the skies cleared, it looked bigger than the pictures show and from the direction it must have been passing the Matlock area at the time.

 

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Good storm here at the moment, a repeat of yesterday. Unusual for N Ireland :)

20170731_140127.jpg

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Some nice formations up in Aberdeen. 

20170731_143359.jpg

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37 minutes ago, mac_ said:

Good storm here at the moment, a repeat of yesterday. Unusual for N Ireland :)

20170731_140127.jpg

Is it that unusual? When we were there for 5 days in August 2014 there was thunder on 3 days. Must be a similar set up.

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Some very nice convection here today. Even saw a pileus cloud on one of the peaks but disappeared before I took the picture. No sign of any storms though.

IMG_2341.thumb.JPG.905d0e63c4bc68ee6beb12149aeeeb05.JPG

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7 hours ago, Andy Bown said:

Is it that unusual? When we were there for 5 days in August 2014 there was thunder on 3 days. Must be a similar set up.

Hi Andy - yep afraid so. I think on average we manage 2 thunder days a month here in August.

As you say it must have been a similar set-up. An even better storm rolled through this evening with fantastic skies.DSC_0045_00001.thumb.jpg.431c253b22df73a07c99302450a6b541.jpg

Edited by mac_
typo
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There's currently a line of storms running NE to SW from northern germany to southern France about the length of the U.K. Producing an extraordinary amount of strikes. I've been sat on a balcony in germany watching it. Strikes every few seconds for hours. By far the most spectacular I've ever seen.

 

 

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Locking this thread shortly. 

 

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