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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

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On 14/07/2017 at 16:15, Sparkiee storm said:

Oh okay and yeah that's understandable, must be quite the thrill though 

I can't say it's a thrill. I hate roller-coasters, and you get that on an airplane in moderate to severe turbulence.  But technology is improving to completely avoid most turbulence.  It's the little CB's surrounding TSRA that give airplanes flying near Thunderstorms the bumps and lumps as you'd never want to fly in them.   Although I've met one Captain that ended up inside a small one in a 747, fully loaded weight and power to idle - was climbing at +500fpm (500 feet per minute).

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39 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Interesting looking at some of the model output.. there's a risk that it could be a lot further West, and therefore affecting western counties, and running straight up through the Irish sea. I seem to remember something similar happening in 2014 - I think? It looked promising for Southern counties, then it all shifted West, and I think @Convective had some good activity on the IoM.

If thats the case then blimey, Didn't take long for that one to change did it.:nonono:

And don't worry, I know its just a few models but this usually means that signs are there for at least a risk of difference in position and conditions.

A difference in position, means us getting no thunder again, so hopefully this isn't a trend in the models thats going to end up verifying.

Edited by wimblettben

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Well the GFS 12z keeps the theme of an outbreak of storms across much of S England and Wales that push North overnight. Things are nearly into the higher res range, especially by late Sunday on-wards, so we will get a better idea then.

It is also worth keeping an eye on the fax charts (surface pressure analysis) issued by the Met Office.

You can see from the below outputs that developing upper warm front off the S coast at 1200hrs tues and by 1200hrs Weds it has pushed across much of England. Looking at other charts currently available, this is where I would currently expect to see storms initiate through the night if the favourable conditions are available. The centre of the developing LP moves from the Bay of Biscay to reach Wales by 1200hrs Weds. These are worth watching as they update these charts each day.

 

PPVM89.thumb.gif.763c25083e64c1a4f839846b6d1f2af6.gif PPVO89.thumb.gif.6b775fe78cc6916694752b47f5474377.gif

 

Edited by Chris K
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6 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

If thats the case then blimey, Didn't take long for that one to change did it.:nonono:

And don't worry, I know its just a few models but this usually means that signs are there for at least a risk of difference in position and conditions.

A difference in position, means us getting no thunder again, so hopefully this isn't a trend in the models thats going to end up verifying.

I hope it doesn't ,Irish Sea coasts have seen nothing too.

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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Interesting looking at some of the model output.. there's a risk that it could be a lot further West, and therefore affecting western counties, and running straight up through the Irish sea. I seem to remember something similar happening in 2014 - I think? It looked promising for Southern counties, then it all shifted West, and I think @Convective had some good activity on the IoM.

I hope so. That would be great for me here in Holyhead. 

Can you think of what date that was?

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1 hour ago, Chris K said:

Well the GFS 12z keeps the theme of an outbreak of storms across much of S England and Wales that push North overnight. Things are nearly into the higher res range, especially by late Sunday on-wards, so we will get a better idea then.

It is also worth keeping an eye on the fax charts (surface pressure analysis) issued by the Met Office.

You can see from the below outputs that developing upper warm front off the S coast at 1200hrs tues and by 1200hrs Weds it has pushed across much of England. Looking at other charts currently available, this is where I would currently expect to see storms initiate through the night if the favourable conditions are available. The centre of the developing LP moves from the Bay of Biscay to reach Wales by 1200hrs Weds. These are worth watching as they update these charts each day.

 

PPVM89.thumb.gif.763c25083e64c1a4f839846b6d1f2af6.gif PPVO89.thumb.gif.6b775fe78cc6916694752b47f5474377.gif

 

How do you think Lincoln is looking for Tuesday night/Wednesday atm?

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48 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

How do you think Lincoln is looking for Tuesday night/Wednesday atm?

To be honest I think most of England and Wales are in the risk zone for now, but until we start seeing the details from the higher resolution models and skew-t charts, I don't have the knowledge to be specific for locations. 

The netwx-MR for example shows rainfall developing across more SW and central areas, Wales, parts of the Midlands/ N England and up through the Irish sea. However last time it started to push all this eastwards as we got closer to the day. Equally it could move more westwards! Difficult to tell at this range.

Can't totally rely on models either - great for guidance but it comes down to watching the radars and skies on the day.

Edited by Chris K
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3 minutes ago, Chris K said:

To be honest I think most of England and Wales are in the risk zone for now, but until we start seeing the details from the higher resolution models and skew-t charts, I don't have the knowledge to be specific for locations. 

The netwx-MR for example shows rainfall developing across more SW and central areas, Wales, parts of the Midlands/ N England and up through the Irish sea. However last time it started to push all this eastwards as we got closer to the day. Equally it could move more westwards! Difficult to tell at this range.

Can't totally rely on models either - great for guidance but it comes down to watching the radars and skies on the day.

Hey Chris, it'll be a Kent Clipper, you just know it makes sense :whistling::crazy:

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Just now, ajpoolshark said:

Hey Chris, it'll be a Kent Clipper, you just know it makes sense :whistling::crazy:

Ssshhh don't start that just yet! :laugh:

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6 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Hey Chris, it'll be a Kent Clipper, you just know it makes sense :whistling::crazy:

It WILL NOT!!!!! What's your name - Del Boy??

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6 minutes ago, Harry said:

It WILL NOT!!!!! What's your name - Del Boy??

Yeah it will.......so confident that I'll place a huge bet on it, this time next year I'll be a millionaire...lol

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banter aside, at this stage things are looking rather promising.....awaiting future runs with bated breath! :)

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Long way to go, but i always love the build up! 

This has been a dire year for storms so far for me, no thunder heard yet! 

All eyes on the models now 

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27 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

banter aside, at this stage things are looking rather promising.....awaiting future runs with bated breath! :)

It does look quite promising, am fully expecting yet another dreary Kent Clipper but hoping for something exciting to happen for far more of us.

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How many posts will there be in the next 3 days anticipating or fearing lol.

Personally I hope the warm front holds off until as late as possible on Tuesday, therefore any thundery outbreak / development will occur into the night. 

By development I anticipate a quick formation of storms from the South coast as the instability begins to pass over land.

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This Facebook post by a pretty reliable forecaster states that the storm risk Tuesday into Wednesday is from the SW up through Wales and then NW Scotland? Is that what's on everyone else's mind atm?

 

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Looking good ,but I never get excited ,well unless my sexy neighbor walks by :shok:

Edited by Mokidugway
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26 minutes ago, JamieUK said:

This Facebook post by a pretty reliable forecaster states that the storm risk Tuesday into Wednesday is from the SW up through Wales and then NW Scotland? Is that what's on everyone else's mind atm?

 

I wouldn't listen too much at the moment, because even when the time comes, its hard to predict where they are going to occur, even though it says models seem solid, the UK weather mostly always has a mind of its own haha.

Edited by Sparkiee storm
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85% chance of thunder Wednesday 

giphy.gif

 

 

Edited by tomp456
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Just now, tomp456 said:
<div style="width:100%;height:0;padding-bottom:53%;position:relative;"><iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/aWPGuTlDqq2yc" width="100%" height="100%" style="position:absolute" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe></div><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/celebrity-reshuffle-aWPGuTlDqq2yc">via GIPHY</a></p>

 

Very cryptic :rofl:

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Just now, Mokidugway said:

Very cryptic :rofl:

Decoded:

france will get storms, U.K. will get the leftovers, I.e, cloud lol

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18z suggests a lot of the storm activity could perhaps be on the West side of the country, which is typical when I'm heading West on holiday during the final week of July lol : P

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1 minute ago, tomp456 said:

Decoded:

france will get storms, U.K. will get the leftovers, I.e, cloud lol

Yep major drizzle event ,lol

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Well just like many times in the past, the forecasts are looking good for thundery weather and I am getting hopeful and excited thinking that it will actually happen.

But based on the amount of failed events so far, it would be quite a miracle for this to actually develop intense storms, so I must remember to keep myself from getting excited too much as it isn't good for my health when the possible disappointment occurs.

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