Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

[bellanite]

Main action missing us by 10 miles but awesome cloud scapes looking north! And nice to actually hear thunder too!

[Ben Sainsbury]

Definitely some good convection taking place over Gloucester areas. Can see tops of anvil from Filton, looking impressive! 

[Lynxus]

Lol t he direction of these cells make no sense currently.

 

Some to the SW moving NE, Some also Move SE, Some E and Some going North.

Doesnt seem to follow surface flows or 850's

I guess slack 500's mean they go whereever

[A.J]

Nice big anvil to the north and north west.....looks like it might be decaying though

[Arnie Pie]

Heavy rain overhead......right in the cz  just now.....looking promising

Edited July 25, 2017 by Arnie Pie

[DIS1970]

No thunder or lightning here, just a few spots of rain.

[Arnie Pie]

Nope.....well and truly shreaded

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 26 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 27 Jul 2017

ISSUED 17:49 UTC Tue 25 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

... NORTHERN ISLES ...

Upper vortex on Wednesday morning and associated steep mid-level lapse rates may provide the focus for some showery precipitation with perhaps embedded lightning. This risk will generally decrease by late morning as main Atlantic frontal system rapidly approaches from the west.

... SCOTLAND / NORTHERN IRELAND / N + W EIRE ...

In the post-frontal environment, the passage of a pronounced shortwave trough during the afternoon and early evening will provide the focus for an increase in coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms as cool air aloft markedly steepens mid-level lapse rates - beginning in W Connaught / W Ulster mid afternoon, then spreading ENE towards SW Scotland during the evening. Strong DLS and notable LLS could allow convection to become well-organised, at least for a time, with potential for strong, gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. Hail with diameter up to 1.5cm will also be possible.

Showers will continue overnight, though with lapse rates looking less impressive and so lightning will be more isolated / sporadic - the risk then extending towards W/SW Ireland later in the night.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-26

[LightningLover]

18th-19th July...for 4 years in a row, I have always witnessed an amazing thunderstorm event on these dates. This year being no exception. It's so weird...and I hope it continues this way.

[dusk]

No kidding, but in the last half hour or so the sky has started to look very unstable

[TheToastPeople]

New showers popping up rather suddenly.. keep watching midlands

[Sentinel]

The showers look to be developing around the Thames valley as well.

[Nick F]

Notable shortwave visible as dark stripe in WV imagery approaching NW Britain and Ireland likely to support development of heavy showers and thunderstorms in this area this afternoon

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2017-07-26 09:21:36
Valid: 26/07/2017 06z to 27/07/2017 06z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - WEDNESDAY 26TH JULY 2017

Synopsis

Upper low and collocated surface low pressure system close to the west of Scotland today will drive a band of rain along a frontal system eastwards across the UK this morning. Post frontal airmass will become unstable across Scotland, Ireland and N. Ireland through the afternoon, supporting heavy showers / thunderstorms.

… SCOTLAND, IRELAND + N. IRELAND …

Water vapour imagery shows a marked shortwave trough in a belt of strong upper westerlies moving east towards NW Britain this morning in wake of frontal rain currently across much of mainland UK. This shortwave trough will steepen lapse rates and create forced ascent which will support the development of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Strong westerly winds aloft and backing of winds towards the surface with approach of shortwave will create fairly strong deep layer shear in the order of 30-50 knts … which will help organise heavy shower/storms into clusters and line segments. These may produce isolated strong wind gusts and also some hail. An isolated brief/weak tornado or waterspout can’t be ruled out with stronger convection which co-incides with an enhancement of low-level shear with approach of shortwave.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

[Windblade]

18 hours ago, Rob Walker said:

I was just going to mention where has this all come from? I just checked my local forecast and it shows the thunder icon (on the bbc) and check radar (because there's some meaty looking clouds about here) and lo and behold there a storm building (and quite a few isolated cells developing too!)

Was this even forecast? Can't seem to remember seeing a storm forecast issued on here for today.....

 

As far as I recall nothing was forecast. I suppose that's the beauty (and curse) of our uk weather - you never know what it's going to do! Always worth keeping an eye on the skies and/or radar, even when nothing is forecast.

[toggerob]

Some convective skies around this part of the world currently, flat-topped CBs forming with under-cloud currents causing scud to form and roll. 

[pad199207]

Sporadic thunderstorms across Ireland in a squall line this evening 

[Mokidugway]

Aye distant rumbles here 

[TJS1998Tom]

9 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Aye distant rumbles here 

We're in Silverdale on holiday atm, noticed a few flashes on the radar not far from us with this heavy band of rain

[Mokidugway]

Just now, TJS1998Tom said:

We're in Silverdale on holiday atm, noticed a few flashes on the radar not far from us with this heavy band of rain

I know the place well ,good luck 

[TJS1998Tom]

Snapshot from earlier, hoping it edges to where we're staying atm for the week as we'll get a good view with the sea in the distance, BBC Forecast suggests thundery weather around 10pm

[TJS1998Tom]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

I know the place well ,good luck 

Same here lol, we've been coming up once a year since I was pretty much born (so 19 years) ;P

Edited July 26, 2017 by TJS1998Tom

[Mokidugway]

Just now, TJS1998Tom said:

Snapshot from earlier, hoping it edges to where we're staying atm for the week as we'll get a good view with the sea in the distance, BBC Forecast suggests thundery weather around 10pm

I'm in ulverston about 10 miles across estuary from you

[Mokidugway]

Impressive structure to incoming storm 

[Mokidugway]

Not much lightning but impressive 

[TJS1998Tom]

A view from the cottage we're at, bits of rain on the radar but nothing for thunder yet