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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

It's nice too see I'm in Convective Weather's isolated SLGT zone for SE England tomorrow! (In fact I'm slap bang in the middle! :))

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook: Sat 22 Jul 2017   

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 22 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sun 23 Jul 2017

ISSUED 21:04 UTC Fri 21 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

... E ANGLIA / LINCS ...

Residual low/mid-level moisture along the remnant cold frontal boundary may provide the focus for a few heavy showers / isolated thunderstorms during the morning/midday hours, either surface-based or generated from medium-level instability. Confidence is not high enough to upgrade to SLGT for now, especially given marginal mid-level lapse rates.

... N ENGLAND / S SCOTLAND ...

Approaching upper vortex and associated cold pool drifting over remnant low-mid-level moisture close to the weak frontal boundary will likely allow scattered heavy showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday, forced largely by low-level convergence. Some prolonged downpours could cause local surface water issues, along with perhaps some weak funnels or tornado given slack conditions.

... ELSEWHERE ...

Cut-off upper low over SW Britain and associated cold pool will lead to steeper mid-level lapse rates, and with diurnal heating and some low-level convergence, numerous showers are expected to develop during the day, lasting well into the evening/night. Some may become weakly-electrified given marginal instability - a low-end SLGT has been added to W / NW Wales where low-level wind convergence may aid some more substantial convective development. Some uncertainty about a messy mixture of dynamic and convective precipitation developing late afternoon into early evening in places, particularly Midlands and the Home Counties, which may inhibit true convective depth somewhat. Chance perhaps of a funnel or weak tornado.

... SE ENGLAND ...

Showers are likely to continue through the night given presence of upper low, but as mid-level lapse rates steeper slightly and the flow backs more, allowing deep convection over the English Channel to move farther inland, there will be some scope for an increase in lightning activity with this convection during Saturday night.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-22

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex

Lightning strike showing up near Southwold, anyone able to confirm/deny its presence?

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
15 minutes ago, Jcweather said:

Lightning strike showing up near Southwold, anyone able to confirm/deny its presence?

There's No precip on radar so looks like a false strike.

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
7 minutes ago, Greeny said:

There's No precip on radar so looks like a false strike.

Thanks, that was my instinct too

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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

Up stupidly early but with a lightning flash out towards the East. Most unexpected!

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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

That's why Then!

Screenshot_20170722-050557.png

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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

The only lightning strikes in the UK!

 

Screenshot_20170722-050855.thumb.png.2f8eede7370c8c030cbb7e0a12f3a391.png

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

Up and about early, and nice to see the back end of an anvil heading off towards the Pennines. :)

IMG_3438.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Severe thunderstorms
  • Location: Basildon, Essex, UK
2 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Up and about early, and nice to see the back end of an anvil heading off towards the Pennines. :)

IMG_3438.JPG

Again, this is still not an anvil lol 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_220717.thumb.png.86541e6b5f5ce7f4eb036a1c3976b2fd.png

Issued 2017-07-22 06:50:16
Valid: 22/07/2017 06z to 23/07/2017 06z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - SATURDAY 22ND JULY 2017

Synopsis

Upper vortex and collocated surface low will drift east across England and Wales on Saturday. Airmass will be unstable across England and Wales and perhaps southern Scotland, with surface heating, leading to heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION … Cool mid-level temperatures of cold pool / upper low crossing England and Wales (500mb temps AOB -20C) will create steep lapse rates with surface heating in sunny spells.  Heavy showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southwestern/southern coastal areas in the morning driven by warm SSTs, then diurnal heating will build cumulonimbus clouds elsewhere across England & Wales, high enough for charge separation to bring scattered thunderstorms.

Given steep lapse rates, hail will be generated in heavy showers and thunderstorms, isolated up to 1cm in diameter, with any locally strong buoyant updrafts. Vertical shear will weak, so showers/storms will be disorganised / pulse-type convection. However, frequency of showers/storms towards the south coast and convergence near slow-moving frontal boundary across Wales, N England and Scottish borders could focus convection and lead to a localised flooding risk. However, organised severe weather is not expected.

Most storms should fade after dark, as diurnal heating dissipates and airmass becomes stable. However, there may be sufficiently steep lapse rates from departing upper low atop moist surface  airmass across SE England to keep heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms going after dark here, with an isolated risk of surface flooding.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Lots of showers moving up from the SW this morning. Very hit and miss but some could see a spark or two.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
21 minutes ago, Chris K said:

Lots of showers moving up from the SW this morning. Very hit and miss but some could see a spark or two.

Just wondering how many are actually going to hit the N. Somerset/Bristol area or bypass given the path of the low. Can't decide whether to BBQ or not.

Edited by MP-R
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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes

Things are building up nicely here already. Lots of cumulus popping up including some towers, plus the top of an anvil off in the distance a little while ago. 

P1470036.JPGP1470062.JPGP1470071.JPG

Edited by Pursuer of Storms
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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
9 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Just wondering how many are actually going to hit the N. Somerset/Bristol area or bypass given the path of the low. Can't decide whether to BBQ or not.

Hmm yea. I am kind of expecting those South of Cornwall way to make it towards our area. You can also see new showers forming over Devon as we move into the afternoon.

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

Hmmm.....

IMG_0305.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester
4 hours ago, Justin123 said:

Again, this is still not an anvil lol 

Sorry to disagree - I wouldn't rule that out from being an anvil!

:) Samos

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

Morning @Justin123 and @Mokidugway:)

Please forgive me, only I'm on two hours sleep, due to my Mum having to go into hospital, and also the loss of an animal (and I don't handle animal losses well)... So I went for an early morning walk to try and clear my head. There was an outline of an anvil(ish) cloud... Albeit very weak.

Either way I apologise for posting up dud gen. :sorry:

And swerving swiftly back on topic...

I've just seen some very strong convection, with towers going up to my south! :bomb:

Not the best photo in the world as it's off my phone... But if you look to the right of the tree.:)

IMG_3475.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
5 minutes ago, samadamsuk said:

Sorry to disagree - I wouldn't rule that out from being an anvil!

:) Samos

Thank you @samadamsuk :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

A warning out. It does say the dreaded "thundery rain" however, it does mention lightning as well, so it is relevant to the thread.

Screenshot_2017-07-22-11-51-36.thumb.png.6c3f87e55cf26d59b95c7018e7de034b.png

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