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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
27 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Thunderstorm approaching here :D

IMG_6391.JPG

I can almost see the base of that storm from my house, about 5 miles SE of me now, PLEASE COME! 

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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

It's moving NE like they always do, I'm in the worst place ever... 

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
16 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

It's moving NE like they always do, I'm in the worst place ever... 

No that would be the West Midlands.

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

OMG!! Now I could be wrong, be this cloud looks to a massive anvil cloud! The way the sun is catching it at the moment is just stunning! :shok::good:

IMG_3389.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
18 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

It's very pretty but not an anvil top :sorry:

Evening @Mokidugway :)

Well... A mate of mine who lives in Wrexham has told me that the sky there was orange! Now we only get orange skies around here when thunderstorms are brewing... Now I know there isn't the 'umph' in the atmosphere to make it go bang, but today has give us some of the best convective skies that I've seen since last year! :bomb:

So I think it could be a weak anvil. Either way, it's nice to see. :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

Anyone else still buzzing from the storm tues eve/wed am?

;)

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Another photo from the lightning Wednesday morning sorry I couldn't upload it before I had some problems with the size of the file!

DSC_0424 edit.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms followed by snow (preferably on the same day!)
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
8 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Anyone else still buzzing from the storm tues eve/wed am?

;)

 

 

Definitely! I had a meeting the following day but most people were tired too as they watched the storm as well. Some of our colleagues travelled down from the midlands and stayed in a hotel on Hayling Island and were so excited that they had seen a storm over the sea as it wasn't usually something that they could do due to their location obviously! Hope for some more thunder over the weekend possibly especially with no work to get up for but I'm not expecting anything much.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_210717.thumb.png.ff8142c9460b6b1ef39776908e141f61.png

Issued 2017-07-20 21:37:59
Valid: 21/07/2017 06z to 22/07/2017 06z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - FRIDAY 21ST JULY 2017

Synopsis

A collocated upper and surface low will move in off the Atlantic across Ireland, becoming slow-moving. Associated occluding cold front will push east across England and Wales during Friday, lying Cumbria to East Sussex by 00z Saturday.

SUMMARY …

A band of heavy rain will accompany the occluding frontal boundary pushing east across, with some convective elements that may produce isolated thunderstorms along its length, with a risk of strong wind gusts and isolated flooding, as it moves in from the west across SW England, Wales and NW England during the day. A lower risk further east as the heavy rain reaches here in the evening and overnight. Also there is a risk of thunderstorms developing across Ireland in the afternoon, with a risk of localised flooding and isolated tornadoes.

DISCUSSION …

... SW England, Wales, Midlands, NW England ...

Models indicate fairly strong upward motion in association with lobes of strong positive vorticity wrapping around upper low moving in the west – particularly along/ahead frontal boundary pushing slowly east. A tongue of fairly warm and moist air drawn north ahead of the occluding cold front pushing east from the Irish Sea / SW approaches will produce some marginal low-level instability ahead of the front – due to weak lapse rates. But surface and upper support for strong lift of warm moist conveyor indicated by models along front, overlapped by strong deep layer shear of 30-50knts provided by divergent flow aloft of southerly jet streak parallel to front may be enough to produce some linear / squall convection. Main threats from this line convection, if it develops, will be brief but intense rainfall leading to flash-flooding. But strong low-level jet winds aloft may be brought towards the surface by downward momentum in any convective lines leading to a risk of strong convective gusts of 40-50mph … so have issued a MARGINAL risk for severe (flooding and strong winds). Lightning is expected to be isolated / sporadic with these frontal convective lines … given weak lapse rates forecast.

... Ireland / N. Ireland ...

Post frontal airmass across Ireland / N. Ireland in the afternoon will have steeper lapse rates due to surface heating in any sunshine beneath cold pool of upper low aloft. So there is greater risk of thunderstorms/lightning developing here, though small hail and localised flooding will be the main threat here.  Worth highlighting that the cold core upper low, low-level instability, steep lapse rates and low Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) here will be favourable conditions for brief funnel/tornadoes where surface convergence forms in the low pressure system crossing the area. Have issued a MARGINAL risk for localised flooding and isolated tornado risk.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
4 hours ago, Staffordshire said:

Have you got around to editing/reporting your chase yet mate? Have been very busy past couple of days so haven't been able to read this thread much and would like to read what you saw.

 

p.s great pics PS, glad you got the shot you wanted.

Yes mate, about half way down page 103 I have posted a shortened video and a brief account of the chase.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Next Friday could be one to keep an eye on if it keeps it up, heat seems to be returning again next week for a few days (or at least tries to) This would be good for the North and West

NORTH THUNDER.png

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Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

For the first time in a long time I decided on Tuesday evening not to use anything to see what the weather was doing, Internet, Phone apps etc and just kept a eye on the sky.

I called it a night at 11pm as I had to get some sleep had work in the morning but woke up just before 1am and it was raining there was no thunder or lightning so went back to sleep.

I had my alarm set for 4am and when it went off I leaned out of bed to hit that snooze button, as I did the room lit up followed by almost instant thunder, scared the life out of me wasn't expecting it and was half asleep.

Got up and went straight to the window and seen some of the best lightning I've seen in years was great to wake up to a storm.

By the time I left for work it had all gone but having a storm that lasted nearly two hours made it a great day even though work was a pain in the backside. 

Roll on the next storm hoping that wasn't the last one of the summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
39 minutes ago, Raidan said:

For the first time in a long time I decided on Tuesday evening not to use anything to see what the weather was doing, Internet, Phone apps etc and just kept a eye on the sky.

I called it a night at 11pm as I had to get some sleep had work in the morning but woke up just before 1am and it was raining there was no thunder or lightning so went back to sleep.

I had my alarm set for 4am and when it went off I leaned out of bed to hit that snooze button, as I did the room lit up followed by almost instant thunder, scared the life out of me wasn't expecting it and was half asleep.

Got up and went straight to the window and seen some of the best lightning I've seen in years was great to wake up to a storm.

By the time I left for work it had all gone but having a storm that lasted nearly two hours made it a great day even though work was a pain in the backside. 

Roll on the next storm hoping that wasn't the last one of the summer.

I would love to see a night storm here, but we havent had much luck. We used to get some great big storms in Lincolnshire but we seem to have some sort of shield over us to stop a lot of them going over : P

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

A positive regional forecast for today. Going to be an interesting day for nowcasting. 

"

Regional forecast for North West England

Wet and windy with the risk of thunder.

Today:

Outbreaks of rain will arrive from the west today. They will be often heavy, with the risk of hail and thunder. It will also be windy, especially along the coast and over higher ground. Maximum Temperature 20 °C."

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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

Looks like a squall line in the Irish Sea. Whilst we may not get thunder it's going to be lively as it comes through..

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
16 hours ago, Stormyking said:

Its been a while since I have been on here and on social media in general, but I thought it would be rude not to share a couple of Snaps of Tuesday night crazyiness, which was easily some of the best Storms I have ever experienced, Just the sheer amount of Lightning about was pretty special, and it came with the whole bunch, Anvil Crawlers, Spider Lightning, CG'S some beautiful Cloud to Cloud Lightning.

These 2 I got from from St Catherine's overlooking the Lighthouse

20205763_10213763950475051_94980686_o.jpg

20227573_10213763950435050_1429036836_o.jpg

Beautiful. :smile:

Edit - I've saved the first pic as my desktop wallpaper. Thanks for sharing. :friends:

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 21 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 22 Jul 2017

ISSUED 03:52 UTC Fri 21 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Strong shear along the wrap-around occlusion, coupled with a relatively high WBPT airmass, will allow elements of line convection to be embedded within the main frontal precipitation. As a result, some squally conditions are likely, particularly over Wales, the Irish Sea and SW England, and perhaps later into the W Midlands / W Country / NW England / SW Scotland. In general, convection limited somewhat in depth, as suggested by marginal mid-level lapse rates, so lightning probably fairly isolated, but some strong gusts of wind and perhaps an isolated tornado would be possible given low cloud bases.

In the post-frontal airmass, a messy mix of showery precipitation is expected around the surface low centre over the Republic of Ireland. Sufficient instability will exist for some sporadic lightning, but not widespread and/or frequent enough to upgrade to SLGT - for now. Under such cold-core, slack surface conditions, a few funnels or weak tornadoes/waterspouts will be possible, perhaps also some hail with the strongest cells.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-21

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Just hope there's no further flash-flooding from this squall moving across Cornwall, not exactly moving through too fast.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Yes, south Wales has already had hours of persistent rain and the main band has not even moved in yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

I expect the people of Coverack will be on tenderhooks after Tuesday's flooding, especially concerning the damage that's already occurred and this front seeming to slow to a crawl right over the Lizard Peninsular.

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Posted
  • Location: cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: storms snow sun
  • Location: cardiff

Looking quite nasty that lot rained all night here.looks nasty down Cornwall again don't fancy been on holiday there today.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: warm summers,gales, thunder lightning frosty mornings .
  • Location: Taunton Somerset

Very blustery and stormy here in good ol Somerset . Rain just creeping in . Lot cooler and fresher but that's not a bad thing . 

 

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