Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, Chris K said:

South Wales looks in the firing line to me from the storm over Exeter and other parts of Devon?

Nice gap opening for Bristol though...

Was just about to post something similar.

Quite often in situations like this, a split occurs with one cluster going west and one going east with a large gap somewhere over southern England.

Can see something similar happening here with areas to the west (ie Wales) & areas to the east (ie the home counties) having a good show whilst those in the middle have diddlysquat.

 

[SalopWatcher]

There is a line of storms from south west of Cornwall to South of Portsmouth all heading north or North east... although very slowly. How can you say the midlands will miss out yet... its all coming, and some places might miss out, but i'm not far from you and its no way time to say it wont happen. (unless your trying to bluff the storms) 

its only 140 miles from the edge of the storms to Crewe. 

[Harry]

5 minutes ago, SalopWatcher said:

The stuff heading up the M5 now over Exeter is on the last few radar grabs starting to intensifying and is producing lightening. Here is where South Wales should be looking. 

Sacrilege my friend 

[Nick L]

Just now, Mokidugway said:

Inch hail can trash  car sunroofs though  I know from personal experience i 

Really? How thin was your sunroof?!

We went through baseballs in Colorado this year, the windscreen cracked but the sunroof was fine...thank god

[SalopWatcher]

That's not the last time I'm going to make that mistake today #onedge 

[tomdewey]

Will my area get any thunderstorm to this evening or to night ?

[philglossop]

Gawd there's some deep rumbles here. Very very dark Cornwall way...

[Thunderstruck]

Anyone else noticed that hook shaped area on the back of the main storm near the Channel Islands?

[Biggin]

12 minutes ago, Harry said:

Sacrilege my friend 

I dont know how I stopped myself launching into one there H.

[VillagePlank]

15 minutes ago, Harry said:

Indeed.

If you read the Estofex MD, for example, the CIN is the reason why there could be more organised potentially severe thunderstorms later. I.e CIN allows energy to build up under the cap, for the trough to remove it and boooom!!

Echo earlier concerns earlier re the MCS - these aren't always helpful. They could make it a bit yuk later.

What I would say however is the path of the MCS is now more favourable. About an hour ago it was making a track towards C/E Kent. Now its heading more towards London.

The shortwave is due to travel almost due North and then slide East. This could be the critical factor as to who and when anyone sees any thunderstorms regarding the timing of the start of the slide East. I'm still rather hopeful, to be honest, although this early detritus could do with holding off for a bit longer, and keep those temps up high.

[Paul Sherman]

Just now, Jcweather said:

Anyone else noticed that hook shaped area on the back of the main storm near the Channel Islands?

Its to do with the system being an MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortice) an area of surface low pressure within the system, dont know how thats going to affect this going forward though. There was one in Arizona yesterday and over land looked like a land hurricane with spiral clouds, amazing to look at

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, SalopWatcher said:

There is a line of storms from south west of Cornwall to South of Portsmouth all heading north or North east... although very slowly. How can you say the midlands will miss out yet... its all coming, and some places might miss out, but i'm not far from you and its no way time to say it wont happen. (unless your trying to bluff the storms) 

its only 140 miles from the edge of the storms to Crewe. 

Years of experience mate, years of experience....

[SalopWatcher]

I know what you mean. Its a night of radar watching, but if it gets here, it will probably get near you today. Good luck. Its almost got to the Severn Estuary. 

[Mokidugway]

6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Really? How thin was your sunroof?!

We went through baseballs in Colorado this year, the windscreen cracked but the sunroof was fine...thank god

GMC Yukon in Nebraska inch hail or there abouts, came out of Walmart and it was broken boom boom .

[Azazel]

Looks to me as though the rather uninspiring stuff in the channel is going to make landfall somewhere near Brighton. I think i'm too far west, but it really doesn't look all that to be fair.

[bigguscumulus]

The back building of the storm near Falmouth is quite amazing, doesn't look close to finishing either.

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

GMC Yukon in Nebraska inch hail or there abouts, came out of Walmart and it was broken boom boom .

That's exactly what we were driving

[convector]

That MCS over the channel looks rather impressive on radar - might be worth compiling a gif later.

[toggerob]

The precip is still continuing to build south of Falmouth, shame I couldn't have gone due to commitments here at home but keeping my fingers crossed for something in the NW later on this evening. No doubt when they get back this weekend there'll be a few pics/videos of today.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

GMC Yukon in Nebraska inch hail or there abouts, came out of Walmart and it was broken boom boom .

And the moral of that tale is - don't upset anyone in Walmart?

[VillagePlank]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

GMC Yukon in Nebraska inch hail or there abouts, came out of Walmart and it was broken boom boom .

You can buy 1" hail from Walmart? Why aren't they selling it at Asda?

[Harry]

Just had another look at blitzortung and you can really see how the MCS has veered now towards the N. 

That could signal one of two things;

A good sign for us SE'rners as we are increasingly less likely to get smeared in post-storm rubbish

A bad sign as it's starting to prove correct the models favouring the west in terms of the storm outbreak (bear in mind Estofex's MD is largely concerned with the (then) two MCS features).

All still to play for.

[TJS1998Tom]

8 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

The shortwave is due to travel almost due North and then slide East. This could be the critical factor as to who and when anyone sees any thunderstorms regarding the timing of the start of the slide East. I'm still rather hopeful, to be honest, although this early detritus could do with holding off for a bit longer, and keep those temps up high.

Would this give us in Lincolnshire a chance in the early hours?

[tomp456]

If we get the mess that's in the channel, is this going to hamper storm chances for this evening

 

Please say no

[Mokidugway]

3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

That's exactly what we were driving

Good motor but wet seats