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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
2 minutes ago, Delka said:

anybody know the reasonings behind the silence from estofex today? 

They're probably too afraid to put out a Level 3 warning 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
5 minutes ago, Delka said:

anybody know the reasonings behind the silence from estofex today? 

perhaps they think we're already out of the EU

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
1 minute ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Still got me at 0% today and Wednesday, but 12% on Thurs, maybe I should take that and call myself lucky :D

still got 70% 10am-1pm tomorrow, 40% for Thursday and another 52% on Friday! I also don't want to brag but also 37% chance on Saturday and 15% on Sunday :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Nice view from Jersey Beach Cam!

 

https://www.jersey.com/jersey-beach-cam

 

A few nutters on surf boards may want to consider exiting the water... :nonono:

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Near Reading - 100m asl
  • Location: Near Reading - 100m asl

Looks like West Berks will continue to miss out. Nevermind, off to western France at the weekend!

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Posted
  • Location: Salisbury
  • Location: Salisbury
9 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Fingers crossed and with Euro 4 on our side Bring it on.

Early days. Lets hope more than just the one place gets something tonight. I think that current storms got a few surprises left yet in terms of path; looks to me on rain radar like it might be heading for a split or two; and some of it has a definite northward shift in its track. We shall know soon enough!

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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

Pulled off the A38 into Ivybridge. Too dangerous. Storm over us at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Just now, philglossop said:

Pulled off the A38 into Ivybridge. Too dangerous. Storm over us at the moment.

Its not over yet either more storms developing behind!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
12 minutes ago, Delka said:

anybody know the reasonings behind the silence from estofex today? 

They're a voluntary organisation which do not issue forecasts every day. 

I believe I am correct in saying they did not do so a couple of days ago when there was an outbreak in Greece.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Well it's all certainly on the move.. 

Screenshot_20170718-142841.thumb.png.01efa97d449f66c281a31db2d80b7b64.pngScreenshot_20170718-142848.thumb.png.97e741295985b5d2d154daae006880b4.png

 

Fantastic sat 

I'd be grateful if it decided to put the brakes on to be honest.

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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

Idiots doing 75mph in near blackness and main carriageway like a river. Now on a back road to Ermington. Just as bad! 

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Hi there everyone, I just wondered if any of you kind people could help. I live near to Stokenchurch in Bucks and just wondered if we are likely to see any storms here tonight or tomorrow. 

It's just I have a new guide dog who is still in training and gets nervous at bangs etc and should I be in the firing line i will ask for someone to come and sit with him and me.

Your assistance and expertise is a lifeline for me. Thank you. 

I appreciate it's so hard to forecast but just wondered if I'm in a zone?

Thank you for your help and good luck everyone, stay safe 

Kindest regards.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Looking at recent satellite, looks like two storm systems with an arc SE across northern France along northern edge of plume of further Tcu and potential storms to spread north

satellite.thumb.JPG.3b592c240265aadf93db6ee99aa7cfb2.JPG

Plenty of mid-level instability above warm nose at 800-850mb upstream  looking at 12z Brest and Trappes (Paris) radiosonde ascents - some shear evident with winds backed at the surface - so upscale growth into one or two MCS likely.

2017071812_Brest.thumb.gif.56436502aabba00bc97fe3523a35696d.gif2017071812_Trappes.thumb.gif.97ea1b8005a1db61bc5ec220fbabf4c5.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Dont know why people in Berks, Hants etc are upset looks like it is heading straight for the South Coast in a NNE Direction as it encounters a better steering flow around 600/700hpa - I would be quite excited if I were them about now

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Dont know why people in Berks, Hants etc are upset looks like it is heading straight for the South Coast in a NNE Direction as it encounters a better steering flow around 600/700hpa - I would be quite excited if I were them about now

Puzzling me too!

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Posted
  • Location: Woodley (East Reading)
  • Location: Woodley (East Reading)

The direction of the Guernsey storm looks like good potential for the England to get some storms, that one is moving far more north than east currently. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Things are looking good across the channel with the French storms seemingly heading in an NNE direction, question is will they maintain their intensity?

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Dont know why people in Berks, Hants etc are upset looks like it is heading straight for the South Coast in a NNE Direction as it encounters a better steering flow around 600/700hpa - I would be quite excited if I were them about now

Indeed...shame as to my untrained eye the W country may miss out now, as the western storms near Plymouth look to be potentially heading more into Wales, with the Eastern zone of storms heading more NE possibly leaving us with a nice gap (as also depicted in the updated MetOffice precip charts). Unless I am totally off here?

Early days though. A bit of a mess!

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

I can barely see any cloud structures here the sky is just a pure white haze

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Posted
  • Location: Cranleigh, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, snow and ice. The usual.
  • Location: Cranleigh, Surrey

I'm definitely not in the upset camp, day off in the garden and very hopeful indeed. Wind has picked up here although it might not mean much.

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