Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

[Willsy]

Well this has kicked off a lot earlier than expected let's hope come 2/3 o'clock we start having some action. Good luck today everyone, I hope you all see what you wish for 

[Evening thunder]

23 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Although the insistence of the Met Office and BBC of calling thunderstorms "thundery showers" does my nut in

Same here, from the Met Office tonight my region has 'A band of thundery showers pushing north with frequent lightning possible' 

Edited July 18, 2017 by Evening thunder

[Nick L]

Just now, Evening thunder said:

Same here, from the Met Office tonight we have 'A band of thundery showers pushing north with frequent lightning possible' 

JUST SAY THUNDERSTORMS! ARRRRRGGGGHHHH! 

[Hodgheg]

24 minutes ago, Nick L said:

That's not true at all though is it? 90% of the time they have an excellent grasp of the broad area. The computing power required to pin point exact cells is utterly enormous and unrealistic to expect.

This brings back a memory of someone I used to know. Storms were forecast on the day. Driving down the road late evening she came out with comments such as, "well they totally got it wrong today didn't they" This was despite the huge anvils surrounding us. People do a similar thing when it doesn't rain in the few square feet of their garden. What would you say if there was a push to inform the public more of probabilities? Sorry if this is slightly off topic. 

 

[Evening thunder]

13 minutes ago, Nick L said:

JUST SAY THUNDERSTORMS! ARRRRRGGGGHHHH! 

Haha, Interestingly in the last few days they often did use 'thunderstorms' and sometimes said with the risk of hail, now though it's changed to thundery showers. it feels like it depends on who's writing the forecasts.

Edit: Actually just realised it does say 'isolated thunderstorms' for this afternoon and 'Thunderstorms clearing to the north' tomorrow morning lol

Then there's the warning for 'thundery showers' where 'these showers' may cause localised flooding of homes, frequent lightning, and hail Though the chief forecaster's assessment does then say thunderstorms.

Edited July 18, 2017 by Evening thunder

[Harry]

10 minutes ago, Nick L said:

JUST SAY THUNDERSTORMS! ARRRRRGGGGHHHH! 

This is what my regional forecast says @Nick L..... 

--------------------------------------

Regional forecast

London & South East England

Headline:

Thunderstorms spreading north later this afternoon and evening.

Today:

Mostly dry with bright or sunny spells. The easterly wind will strengthen later, especially along the coast, becoming breezy here. There is an increasing risk of thunderstorms arriving from the south later, but more especially during this evening. Maximum temperature 29 °C.

Tonight:

Scattered thunderstorms will spread north, probably turning locally torrential and accompanied by gusty winds, hail and frequent lightning. Later becoming dry, but remaining warm and humid. Windy along the coast. Minimum temperature 15 °C.

Wednesday:

Many places dry, humid, with bright or sunny spells. However, isolated heavy thunderstorms may develop across the north later, while areas of mist and low cloud affect the south coast. Maximum temperature 26 °C.

Edited July 18, 2017 by Harry

[samadamsuk]

Morning all

The radar gives the impression that there's a long lasting cell within that lot moving out of brest. I dont remember seeing this modelled this early, I suspect this might shift the area to watch east a littoe, with a chance of surface based if the impulse arrives earlier. Im usualy wrong though! 

Samos

[RichmondWeather]

3 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Haha, Interestingly in the last few days they often did use 'thunderstorms' and sometimes said with the risk of hail, now though it's changed to thundery showers. it feels like it depends on who's writing the forecasts.

Then there's the warning for 'thundery showers' where 'these showers' may cause localised flooding of homes, frequent lightning, and hail  Though the chief forecaster's assessment does then say thunderstorms.

I just heard that as well. In Germany they are not so conservative with the weather as the Meto giving the opposite effect somtimes.

[Paul Sherman]

Still think there will be 2 zones today.

South West, Wales and into the Irish Sea early

SE Overnight from 2nd round

Watch the Bifurcating Jet over the Channel as this is key to where Storms will likely be today.

Usual suspects tomorrow I guess! 

[Paul]

We're just testing the Netwx models with the upgraded GFS data (that goes live Wednesday btw). And the new version just pulls things a little further east as it all heads north. Obviously, as others have been saying though, it's pretty much impossible for any computer model to nail down the precise location of cells etc.

Old version

New version

[Karen Gauntlett]

this is from a storm 3 years ago i took these using my phone

[Evening thunder]

Anyway, interesting developments in the western channel as long as it doesn't explode then blow itself out before reaching here lol. Some models have suggested such, but some also look good.

Not going to concentrate too much on specific cells at the moment though as they often die only for others to form

[Nick L]

9 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

This brings back a memory of someone I used to know. Storms were forecast on the day. Driving down the road late evening she came out with comments such as, "well they totally got it wrong today didn't they" This was despite the huge anvils surrounding us. People do a similar thing when it doesn't rain in the few square feet of their garden. What would you say if there was a push to inform the public more of probabilities? Sorry if this is slightly off topic. 

 

Unfortunately people have the "weather forecasters are always wrong" mantra so deeply embedded in their brains that it will be very difficult to re-educate people. But when even weather enthusiasts are guilty of what you're describing there's no hope!

[Super_Uwe]

Feels promising today. I just logged on to see a solitary strike down the road from here, pretty sure it's a false return though as it's still quite sunny here!

 

My only request is that it stays dry and storm-free until about 5.30 once the school run and walk home from work is complete. But I know you can't afford to be choosy!

[RichmondWeather]

While it may not be a direct hit for the home counties and London, based on what has been seen there should still be my favourite bit of a thunderstorm, the distant lightning flashes without thunder.

[Harry]

2 minutes ago, RichmondWeather said:

While it may not be a direct hit for the home counties and London, based on what has been seen there should still be my favourite bit of a thunderstorm, the distant lightning flashes without thunder.

Not too sure about that @RichmondWeather

I think @Paul Sherman is spot on with the dual zones scenario - that is what is increasingly being signalled by the GFS and Euro4 models and was being suggested by UKMO yesterday (although this morning is not keen on any storm outbreaks).

Like you however, if I don't get any overhead storms I hope I'll get to enjoy a good light show.

[samadamsuk]

4 minutes ago, RichmondWeather said:

While it may not be a direct hit for the home counties and London, based on what has been seen there should still be my favourite bit of a thunderstorm, the distant lightning flashes without thunder.

My favorite scenario is being under the mcs canopy, with lightning jumping between cells. Have to go back to 92/95 for that round here!

 

Samos

[Methuselah]

21 minutes ago, Nick L said:

JUST SAY THUNDERSTORMS! ARRRRRGGGGHHHH! 

That seemingly arbitrary distinction has bugged me for years...Does the definition 'thunderstorm' depend on the features inherent in the thing itself, or in how it's perceived by ground-based observers?

[Super_Uwe]

That storm approaching the far south of Cornwall and Devon has really started to explode size-wise. Check out Sat24!

Don't think it's going to be too long before something hits this part of the world...

[Staffordshire]

quick q - these overnight storms, what direction will they be heading? directly north or nw/ne?

[AcCas]

Unlikely I'll see anything but good luck to all!

[Delka]

85% of storms from netweather tomorrow midday, and the GFS is looking very good for storms locally.. not keeping my hopes up as the risk doesn't look too high but I'd happily take anything I can get.. my part of Norfolk seems to actually have done well compared to many other places in the UK for storms this year for the amount of days with storms, but they're never very big or last long which is a disappointment 

[Nick L]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That seemingly arbitrary distinction has bugged me for years...Does the definition 'thunderstorm' depend on the features inherent in the thing itself, or in how it's perceived by ground-based observers?

I think many in the Met Office and BBC are reluctant to use the term "thunderstorm" as it sounds too big and scary for the public to comprehend 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

My van now has a bed - so I'm gonna pull an all-nighter. Have 3 actual cameras and 2 iPhones ready - so if there are any battery problems I've got back up options.

Most important things are:

• to be where the storm is

• remember that lightning can be unpredicatable and incredibly dangerous

• to stay as safe as you can and not take any unnecessary risks

• to enjoy the moment!

[Hodgheg]

12 minutes ago, RichmondWeather said:

While it may not be a direct hit for the home counties and London, based on what has been seen there should still be my favourite bit of a thunderstorm, the distant lightning flashes without thunder.

Yes this is what im thinking too. I have a great view to the west. Some distant illuminated CB's would be nice. They make for much better photography than being stuck under the cell too.