Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

[convector]

19 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

The mythical M4 corridor storm generator! I say mythical because I believe the M40 generates them to travel northwards! Storms here are a rarity tbh. A couple of years can go by without one. I lived in Hertforshire as a child and storms were a far more regular occurance. I also see a lot more in London/

I can attest to this; haven't seen a good storm i didn't need to chase for since 2014/2015.

[Me & angel fiance]

 We are in holiday up high on a site with our little caravan near Bude in Cornwall. If we can get a good storm here it would make my holiday. Not that it's not already perfect. My home town, Stevenage seems to have been storm starved for a few years.. 

[samadamsuk]

4 minutes ago, Hearts in Herts said:

 We are in holiday up high on a site with our little caravan near Bude in Cornwall. If we can get a good storm here it would make my holiday. Not that it's not already perfect. My home town, Stevenage seems to have been storm starved for a few years.. 

good luck! - good chance there I's say

[Mapantz]

That's good enough for me!

Click 'Fullsize' to see the times - background is transparent.

Precip totals above, but remember to take a generous pinch of salt!

Edited July 18, 2017 by Mapantz

[TJS1998Tom]

8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

That's good enough for me!

Click 'Fullsize' to see the times - background is transparent.

 

If this blob right here was to be a little more to the East that would be perfect lol, hopefully it does and if there's lightning we'll get a few flashes from the distance

[JamieUK]

Hmmm. I'm thinking of heading down to Lulworth cove/Weymouth area tomorrow for a beach day and waiting around for the storms to arrive. Is that a good place to be? 

[toggerob]

2am and it's 19'c in the south tonight, a little cooler at 11'c here in the NW but that warm front is just passing overhead here currently. Not too many times you can see the temperature actually raise by some 6'c during the early nighttime hours.

[The PIT]

3 hours ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

2am and it's 19'c in the south tonight, a little cooler at 11'c here in the NW but that warm front is just passing overhead here currently. Not too many times you can see the temperature actually raise by some 6'c during the early nighttime hours.

No such change here temps still falling 12.9c and quiet pleasant to sleep in.

[Supacell]

Still a difference within forecasts and models for this evening and tonight, as to be expected I suppose. Overall it looks like west is best, with storms moving into the SW late this afternoon and then trundling up the western side of England and Wales through the night. However, there are those hi-res models which bring areas further east into play. I am still debating whether to get in the car and drive somewhere a long way from here in order to see something or stay put. I have somewhere close to the SW Midlands (maybe Gloucestershire/Worcestershire) in mind then then I just have a feeling that for once my area may actually get a storm and I would be gutted to miss out if it did. I think it is possibly through the memories of July 4th 2015 when I headed west into Staffordshire, saw a great storm and then realised a stronger storm had hit Derby whilst I was out there. These storms are moving in from a similar direction, at a similar time and with similar forecasts being shown beforehand.

Anyhow, with the MUCAPE values being shown I would expect storms tonight to have the potential to put on quite a lightning show, with frequent lightning anywhere across England, Wales and Ireland. Tomorrow it is Scotland that becomes at risk from these storms, although some of the intensity will have gone by then (this is not to say there won't still be some good storms though). 

EDIT: No chance of hearing Carol utter the H word this morning, as it will Matt Taylor taking us through the morning forecasts haha

 

Edited July 18, 2017 by Supacell

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Still a difference within forecasts and models for this evening and tonight, as to be expected I suppose. Overall it looks like west is best, with storms moving into the SW late this afternoon and then trundling up the western side of England and Wales through the night. However, there are those hi-res models which bring areas further east into play. I am still debating whether to get in the car and drive somewhere a long way from here in order to see something or stay put. I have somewhere close to the SW Midlands (maybe Gloucestershire/Worcestershire) in mind then then I just have a feeling that for once my area may actually get a storm and I would be gutted to miss out if it did. I think it is possibly through the memories of July 4th 2015 when I headed west into Staffordshire, saw a great storm and then realised a stronger storm had hit Derby whilst I was out there. These storms are moving in from a similar direction, at a similar time and with similar forecasts being shown beforehand.

Anyhow, with the MUCAPE values being shown I would expect storms tonight to have the potential to put on quite a lightning show, with frequent lightning anywhere across England, Wales and Ireland. Tomorrow it is Scotland that becomes at risk from these storms, although some of the intensity will have gone by then (this is not to say there won't still be some good storms though). 

EDIT: No chance of hearing Carol utter the H word this morning, as it will Matt Taylor taking us through the morning forecasts haha

 

Indeed, lightning could be prolific. It will be interesting viewing the radar and reading on the ground reports this evening. 

[Norfolk Sheep]

22 minutes ago, Supacell said:

EDIT: No chance of hearing Carol utter the H word this morning, as it will Matt Taylor taking us through the morning forecasts haha

 

 

Thank goodness for that 

Of course that would happen when the risk for the east is rather minimal!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

The Estofex team must be having a heated debate over their cornflakes as to whether the UK gets a level 2 or not...

[Supacell]

The Euro 4 keeping us on our toes!

www.weatheronline.co.uk

How can one plan to chase with a wide range of options like this?? 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

5 minutes ago, Supacell said:

The Euro 4 keeping us on our toes!

www.weatheronline.co.uk

How can one plan to chase with a wide range of options like this?? 

Interesting I watched the euro4 pull things further and further east over the last few runs, now the Arome started doing it but the Arepege is staying put. 

I would suggest going middle ground, say around just south of Milton Keynes, perhaps a touch further south then that gives you options which way to go. 

The thing is, storms maybe firing from around lunch early afternoon, with others breaking out much later on. 

Certainly a tough time to chase and I wouldn't want to be the decision maker in any team today. 

Cape values also vary model to model with some having the most over the south east some central and some western areas. 

If I was going to make a guess, I would circle IOW into Devon up into Bristol across to Milton Keynes and down to Brighton. 

Edited July 18, 2017 by Surrey

[Supacell]

@Surrey

Thanks mate. I am hoping that by the time I finish work (not far from the time the 12z comes out) that models will be in better agreement. If not, then MK is a good shout as can get easily east or west from there and intercept storms moving S to N. I still have the option of just staying put and hoping something comes to me as some models are offering opportunities here too.

[Dangerous55019]

Morning all 
For what it's worth, here is my daily look at the Cape and LI charts from the 00z run on the GFS for today.
Now although this doesn't cover my area, there is a lot of potential further south. 
I'm starting off todays look at the charts from 09.00 this morning and carrying on up to midnight.
As with always on these things please use the Skew-T charts for your area, watch the sky, and storm radar, and also this forum... As once again it'll come down to Nowcasting once things start to kick off; which hopefully they will. 
For those of us further north, tomorrow is the main interest, and I'll try and post something up later about that, plus I don't want to confuse it with todays fun down south 
But good luck to everyone with this today and hopefully you'll get the good show that we all want 

[Chris.R]

15 minutes ago, Supacell said:

@Surrey

Thanks mate. I am hoping that by the time I finish work (not far from the time the 12z comes out) that models will be in better agreement. If not, then MK is a good shout as can get easily east or west from there and intercept storms moving S to N. I still have the option of just staying put and hoping something comes to me as some models are offering opportunities here too.

Hi @Supacell :-)

It's almost a year to the day when I was in Holyhead, watching one of the best storms for a long time and you were helping me with  positioning as I  had rubbish 3G. I'm back there again now with a strong sense of déjà vu, but this time with a dongle! lol

Edited July 18, 2017 by Chris.R

[Harry]

50 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

The Estofex team must be having a heated debate over their cornflakes as to whether the UK gets a level 2 or not...

If they do a forecast then it's a lvl 1 for me. There is some chance of severe storms and some torrential downpours (evidently). Also the prospect of some pretty frequent lightning. But I wouldn't say it's anything close to lvl 2. 

[Supacell]

29 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Hi @Supacell :-)

It's almost a year to the day when I was in Holyhead, watching one of the best storms for a long time and you were helping me with  positioning as I  had rubbish 3G. I'm back there again now with a strong sense of déjà vu, but this time with a dongle! lol

It definitely helps to have internet on the move, in fact I find it's a necessity, especially if out in rural parts. Glad to have been of help though.

That following morning I headed up into NE England as that was the area forecasted to get the best storms following the overnight ones. Nothing happened where I was but huge storms erupted over the SE Midlands and spread into East Anglia. That is why I don't put all my trust in models anymore.

Hopefully we both get something tonight.

[Karl83]

4 minutes ago, Supacell said:

It definitely helps to have internet on the move, in fact I find it's a necessity, especially if out in rural parts. Glad to have been of help though.

That following morning I headed up into NE England as that was the area forecasted to get the best storms following the overnight ones. Nothing happened where I was but huge storms erupted over the SE Midlands and spread into East Anglia. That is why I don't put all my trust in models anymore.

Hopefully we both get something tonight.

Yep - I just ran out of data yesterday and it doesn't refresh until tomorrow! 1.99 for 100MB will have to suffice or an MCS directly over my house would be the favoured option.

[AnvilCrawlers]

my dilema is do i rush buy a canon eos 1300 D or hold tight to see how things pan out,both my nikon d70s died with in 2 weeks of each other.with my last one dying on the storm that developed over leicestershire the other week.will it wont it,same old situations regarding storms and if they pan out and if all the elements come together at the right time.

[Chris.R]

 I'll be reporting all night if I can hear from Holyhead. Need to try and get a few hours sleep in the evening though. 

[Nick F]

Thinking that storms could arrive across SW England as early as late morning / early afternoon. Already storms off Brittany. A look at the 00z Brest radiosonde ascent shows plenty of mid-upper level instability, warm / dry nose 800-950mb keeping convection well elevated.

 

Edited July 18, 2017 by Nick F

[Nick F]

00z ECMWF to throw into the hat too for midnight. Differences between all the models, why we should nowcast storm development and movement

[Hodgheg]

Don't look what the metoffice precip forecast. Good look to everyone today.