Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

[Lynxus]

Convergence clearly visible down south moving up the south / south western side tomorrow night.

 

I do find this break in PPN a little odd though.

It seems to appear then vanish then re-appear over the far SW

[Sparkiee storm]

17 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Yellow rain wtf, I am staying indoors then

Yep, certainly could be memorable tomorrow night.

 

Not for the storms, but for the Yellow rain hahaha, got this off social media lol.

Edited July 17, 2017 by Sparkiee storm

[TJS1998Tom]

I hope I get a surprise in the early hours and that any lightning etc comes a little more to the East : P

[Severe Blizzard]

I really hope this latest model does NOT verify. Having missed out on all the Eastward shifting storms and Kent clippers this year, there was initially a good prognosis for storms in Guildford on Tuesday 18th / Wednesday 19th at long last. 15 distant rumbles of thunder on the whole of 2017 so far is pathetic. I do not want to see yet another downgrade for this area. Even some activity is better getting than absolutely nothing which usually happens.

 

[Azazel]

That very weather link posted a couple pages back is hilarious. I hate to be a grammar nazi but I had to stop reading about halfway through. Reminds me of those sensationalist articles my friends sometimes share on facebook and I have to tell them off.

 

anyway it looks like I may be on the edge of any activity tomorrow. Not that I'm complaining, sometimes the view is much better from a distance;)

[Sparkiee storm]

18 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Could be worse ,lol  

 

Maybe multi - coloured rain next , let the lightning light up that rain lol.

[Thunderstruck]

Know Netweather isn't the most reliable, but just gone from 65% chance to 0% for Weds...

[Mokidugway]

7 minutes ago, Jcweather said:

Know Netweather isn't the most reliable, but just gone from 65% chance to 0% for Weds...

Mines gone up to 63 % 

[TropicThunder]

Well the BBC site has the thunderstorm symbol for here from 5 until 7 tomorrow evening, so that's my chances of seeing anything dashed lol. 

[Derecho]

8 minutes ago, TropicThunder said:

Well the BBC site has the thunderstorm symbol for here from 5 until 7 tomorrow evening, so that's my chances of seeing anything dashed lol. 

I'm more optimistic, conditions are favourable then last time and the BBC/Meto have been consistent in recent hours with their forecasts stating for storms to arrive here in Southampton for around 5pm ish

[matt111]

The met office app was showing this for here when I looked earlier. Rarely see the thunderstorm icon on there.  

[TropicThunder]

3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I'm more optimistic, conditions are favourable then last time and the BBC/Meto have been consistent in recent hours with their forecasts stating for storms to arrive here in Southampton for around 5pm ish

Fingers crossed, I daren't get my hopes up too much but it is looking good for most to along the south coast to see something...

[The PIT]

Wow local forecast updated and we've now got rain fro 7 am. Makes the warning look a little more sensiacle.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Netwx-SR looks good for me, only a 10-mile shift eastwards and i'm within the core. Preferably I like staying on the edges of storms as I get to see more of the structure without sacrificing much visibility. 

If some of the charts are correct, we'll be having a lightshow hours before the batch arrives. A lot of it is likely to be elevated. So as soon as night falls, if all goes to plan, there should already be flashing on the southern horizon.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

2 hours ago, Paul said:

Netwx-SR looking entertaining late Tuesday onwards. 

It did really well on the last convective outbreak - we upgraded it to improve the convective detail and spin-up times shortly before that.

Possible MCS running from the south coast to the central belt? 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 18 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 19 Jul 2017

ISSUED 20:29 UTC Mon 17 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge over the British Isles on Tuesday will slowly drift east, as a negatively-tilted upper trough approaches from the Atlantic. On its forward side, poleward advection of a high WBPT airmass will occur from western Europe into southern then central Britain. Falling heights as upper trough approaches, combined with subtle shortwaves, will provide the focus for destabilisation of the mid-levels, with significant CAPE available from approx 850mb upwards by Tuesday evening/night.

Heavy showers / isolated thunderstorms could be possible as early as Tuesday morning close to Cornwall/Devon/Channel Islands from AcCas, though in general the risk of elevated thunderstorms here increases moreso during the afternoon hours, perhaps extending towards Dorset and Somerset by late afternoon. Bifurcating flow could also see an elevated thunderstorm complex pass close to Kent/Sussex during the first half of the evening, but more likely to stay a little to the south and hence no MDT issued for now.

Elsewhere, likely still dry at this stage, but through the evening hours increasing isentropic lift will allow numerous scattered elevated thunderstorms to develop on the leading edge of the Theta-E ridge, particularly focussed over SW England then extending east across Cen-S England, though the exact phasing of upper dynamics interacting with the plume is still uncertain - earlier destabilisation would then require the MDT to be extended farther south towards the south coast. A broken line of scattered elevated thunderstorms is then expected to drift north through the night into the Midlands, parts of Wales, and perhaps extending towards London and East Anglia - some question marks over how far east these may extend, and so have refrained from stretching the MDT too far east for now.

Some elevated thunderstorms could also form over the Republic of Ireland on Tuesday night, through a combination of advection of existing cells from SW England / SW Wales and new cells developing in-situ, generally moving towards the NW.

The magnitude of CAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates is such that lightning is likely to be very frequent with some thunderstorms, particularly those over England and Wales, and hail up to 1.5-2.0cm in diameter would be possible with the most potent cells. The risk of flash flooding is mitigated somewhat by notably dry surface layers, at least initially, but these will tend to moisten with time and bring a greater threat of some locally high rainfall totals should multiple storms move over the same area. Given the lead time, there is undoubtedly still some uncertainty over the exact forecast evolution, and further updates may be issued as new guidance becomes available.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-18

[tomp456]

Just seen the beeb forecast for here tomorrow evening, looks good!!

 

Today/tomorrow am  is the three year anniversary of one of the best storms I've seen.

Not one forecaster foretasted it. 

[TJS1998Tom]

3 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Wow local forecast updated and we've now got rain fro 7 am. Makes the warning look a little more sensiacle.

For us It shows a mix of light and heavy rain for us from 3am till 6am with a break inbetween. Then again from 8am till 11am. No doubt it'll just be light rain but I hope they're just underplaying it to be on the safe side : P

[Mokidugway]

As usual with meso systems in my area  I'll hear thunder at around 5 am  lol

 

[The PIT]

Just need Carol to say Humdingers and then it will be curtains.

[Arnie Pie]

2 hours ago, weirpig said:

Black Country ? Thought you was from Walsall?  

 

2 hours ago, Snowycat said:

mmmm, does that mean you are excluding me from any storms 

Now now..... When were all `Greater Birmingham` we`ll be able to share all our storms

anyway a good chance for storms in our area this week....and a possible sighting of the Aurora tonight

[Mokidugway]

Just a little taster 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mokidugway said:

Just a little taster 

Aye think I can see the top of that out of my bedroom window

 

lol

[Mokidugway]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Aye think I can see the top of that out of my bedroom window

 

lol

You can see Kansas from your window 

[Sparkiee storm]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Aye think I can see the top of that out of my bedroom window

 

lol

 

3 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

You can see Kansas from your window 

Yeah same here, I can too