Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

[tomp456]

Weather.com go into hype mode 

Surprised the daily mail and express haven't run 645684598645 articles about the potential 

https://weather.com/en-GB/unitedkingdom/weather/news/uk-weather-alert-thunder-power-cuts-floods-travel-disruption

Edited July 17, 2017 by tomp456

[Willie Allen]

Warm and uncomfortably humid air will continue to spread in from the near continent through tonight and tomorrow, lifting temperatures to values well above average with plenty of hot sun. Through the early afternoon storm cloud will gather across parts of the south coast, pin-pointing exactly where these storms will be is almost impossible, however we can say with some confidence that a “supercell” – or a large, intense thunderstorm could develop over the hills of south west England tomorrow night, perhaps Devon, before affecting Wales during the later hours of Tuesday and early hours of Wednesday, with most other areas staying dry.

[Willie Allen]

Through the night and into the early hours of Wednesday, the main area of interest as indicated by the map above is firstly the south west, then extending north into Wales and other Irish Sea Coasts towards the end of the night and start of Wednesday morning, some places here could see high rainfall totals, with strong winds and hail mixed in in places. Another batch of storms may also break out further inland towards the midlands during tomorrow night, these may head northwards towards southern parts of northern England before dissipating.

During Wednesday, during the late morning anyway most of the “storm” activity is forecast to peter out for a time, with just a few rumbles and heavy rain across Scotland, maybe Northern Ireland around lunchtime. After lunch time though and through the afternoon, temperatures will soar which will be the main ingredient for more thunderstorms, hit and miss however some could be fairly intense, locally severe across central and eastern England, perhaps a few popping up across the south to. These storms will head off into the north sea during Wednesday night. There is also the risk of importing an MCS (mesoscale convective system), from France, into Kent/ south eastern fringes of England, during Wednesday afternoon and evening, this is a very low risk however it’s one that needs watching closely, as slight changes in forecast output could mean that this becomes a significant part of the forecast.

[Paul Sherman]

18 minutes ago, Willie Allen said:

Warm and uncomfortably humid air will continue to spread in from the near continent through tonight and tomorrow, lifting temperatures to values well above average with plenty of hot sun. Through the early afternoon storm cloud will gather across parts of the south coast, pin-pointing exactly where these storms will be is almost impossible, however we can say with some confidence that a “supercell” – or a large, intense thunderstorm could develop over the hills of south west England tomorrow night, perhaps Devon, before affecting Wales during the later hours of Tuesday and early hours of Wednesday, with most other areas staying dry.

Might be an idea to link where you found that Willie ?? And also if you could let us know as the part I have bolded above seems very suspect to me ? Is this another of those facebook groups that warn of deadly storms approaching Uk i wonder - Jeeesh

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Might be an idea to link where you found that Willie ?? And also if you could let us know as the part I have bolded above seems very suspect to me ? Is this another of those facebook groups that warn of deadly storms approaching Uk i wonder - Jeeesh

I was right in the middle of searching for that myself..

http://veryweather.co.uk/isolated-severe-thunderstorms-forecast-to-affect-the-uk-tomorrow-night/

I just whois'd the domain too - I recognise the name, i'm sure they've been banned from here before?! And they are known for hyperbolic forecasts too.

Edited July 17, 2017 by Mapantz

[Mokidugway]

22 minutes ago, Willie Allen said:

Through the night and into the early hours of Wednesday, the main area of interest as indicated by the map above is firstly the south west, then extending north into Wales and other Irish Sea Coasts towards the end of the night and start of Wednesday morning, some places here could see high rainfall totals, with strong winds and hail mixed in in places. Another batch of storms may also break out further inland towards the midlands during tomorrow night, these may head northwards towards southern parts of northern England before dissipating.

During Wednesday, during the late morning anyway most of the “storm” activity is forecast to peter out for a time, with just a few rumbles and heavy rain across Scotland, maybe Northern Ireland around lunchtime. After lunch time though and through the afternoon, temperatures will soar which will be the main ingredient for more thunderstorms, hit and miss however some could be fairly intense, locally severe across central and eastern England, perhaps a few popping up across the south to. These storms will head off into the north sea during Wednesday night. There is also the risk of importing an MCS (mesoscale convective system), from France, into Kent/ south eastern fringes of England, during Wednesday afternoon and evening, this is a very low risk however it’s one that needs watching closely, as slight changes in forecast output could mean that this becomes a significant part of the forecast.

Takes an almost perfect set up  for low topped uk supercells ,you can live in hope but I wouldn't hold my breath 

Edited July 17, 2017 by Mokidugway

[Weather-history]

This is what I want to see Wednesday

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

8 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Might be an idea to link where you found that Willie ?? And also if you could let us know as the part I have bolded above seems very suspect to me ? Is this another of those facebook groups that warn of deadly storms approaching Uk i wonder - Jeeesh

Indeed, correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't a true supercell only qualify if it is surface based and not elevated? 

[Marcus_surfer]

 

9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I was right in the middle of searching for that myself..

http://veryweather.co.uk/isolated-severe-thunderstorms-forecast-to-affect-the-uk-tomorrow-night/

I just whois'd the domain too - I recognise the name, i'm sure they've been banned from here before?! And they are known for hyperbolic forecasts too.

I dont understand that warning map. Why are parts of south wales black!?

Edited July 17, 2017 by Marcus_surfer

[Paul Sherman]

3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Indeed, correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't a true supercell only qualify if it is surface based and not elevated? 

Nope you can have Elevated and Surface based Supercells but very rare to get Elevated Supercells in the Uk. We tend to find them in the High Plains of Colorado and Wyoming when temps are 90f and Dps are around 45-50f. They are stunning to look at but very very rare in the Uk! Also it is quite common for Elevated Storms in the early morning from WAA Regimes turning surface based as they cross frontal boundaries for example

Edited July 17, 2017 by Paul Sherman

[Nick L]

12 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I was right in the middle of searching for that myself..

http://veryweather.co.uk/isolated-severe-thunderstorms-forecast-to-affect-the-uk-tomorrow-night/

I just whois'd the domain too - I recognise the name, i'm sure they've been banned from here before?! And they are known for hyperbolic forecasts too.

What a bizarre and confusing set of forecast maps.

[Sparkiee storm]

Easier to read warning map of areas that may be affected by storms.

Edited July 17, 2017 by Sparkiee storm

[ChezWeather]

14 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

 

I dont understand that warning map. Why are parts of south wales black!?

You could create a better forecast by going outside and throwing a few magic beans onto the ground

The only storm forecasts i take any note of are http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/   http://www.estofex.org/ and Nick here on Netweather 

[andymusic]

17 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

 

I dont understand that warning map. Why are parts of south wales black!?

looks like they forecast the worst weather in Black to hit around the Swansea area - we shall see

[matty40s]

5 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Easier to read warning map of areas that may be affected by storms.

Is that a bit like yellow snow.......you don't eat it......

[Sparkiee storm]

4 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Is that a bit like yellow snow.......you don't eat it......

Only time will tell 

[Mokidugway]

14 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Easier to read warning map of areas that may be affected by storms.

 

10 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Is that a bit like yellow snow.......you don't eat it......

Zappa would be proud 

[sparky1972]

nothing in the forecast for here, maybe some light rain on weds morning, but we have flying ants taking off in their hundreds here again right now, maybe they know better and are getting out of here before the storms do arrive, lol

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

That veryweather map is the only one that includes me, which is even more disheartening if this bad reputation is true...

[Mapantz]

Gonna be busy in this thread tomorrow - I look forward to that, the build up is fun!

[Thunderstruck]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Gonna be busy in this thread tomorrow - I look forward to that, the build up is fun!

Me too! 

 

Seen conflicting reports for storms here tomorrow, been placed under a Met O yellow warning, but some other sources are saying nothing for here. Only time will tell...

[Mokidugway]

Yep ,I'll enjoy my storms by proxy 

[TJS1998Tom]

19 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

nothing in the forecast for here, maybe some light rain on weds morning, but we have flying ants taking off in their hundreds here again right now, maybe they know better and are getting out of here before the storms do arrive, lol

I keep getting these small bugs popping up on my laptop screen lol. I hope the storms move North enough to at least give us a distant light display, if not. The latest 12z is very good and the end of July could maybe the next chance for some storms. 

[The PIT]

Local forecast having it's normal silly forecast warning for heavy rain but only a light shower at 19:00hrs Sunny spells otherwise. Normally the local forecast is correct ignoring the warnings. It's been right every time so far.

Interesting to note there's a lot of cin around and by the time that goes the rainfall is well out of the way.  I'm going for thundery rain and not much else.

Edited July 17, 2017 by The PIT

[weirpig]

Been a let down for these parts stormwise. Hopefull of at  least a rumble or two over the coming days