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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

A wild thundery shower icon has appeared on the MetO app. That's rare! Anytime it does show up, nothing occurs. :)

Screenshot_2017-07-16-17-50-17.thumb.png.8643befa2c7c0f6cd3fdb9d671456388.png

Edited by Mapantz
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Not getting excited here expecting just a bit of rain.

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wimblettben Rising Star

wimblettben

Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
Posted
25 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A wild thundery shower icon has appeared on the MetO app. That's rare! Anytime it does show up, nothing occurs. :)

Screenshot_2017-07-16-17-50-17.thumb.png.8643befa2c7c0f6cd3fdb9d671456388.png

We were looking to be in the area where most of the activity would be happening earlier but not sure if it may end up more West or East of us at the moment. 

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TJS1998Tom Seasoned

TJS1998Tom

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted
19 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

We were looking to be in the area where most of the activity would be happening earlier but not sure if it may end up more West or East of us at the moment. 

Latest 12z hints it being slightly towards the East, but I suppose we'll know a bit more tomorrow

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted

well we do know Bedford won't get anything so not worth storm chasing here.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)

Not sure what it's like further north but the last 24 hrs here have been VERY humid indeed, this is before we've imported the real hot and juicy air that will hopefully bring widespread thunderstorms.

Today is our first notable flying ant day - I know other areas have already had theirs.

Looking forward to the build up and the "will it won't it" scenario that will inevitably unfold 

Edited by Harry
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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Harry said:

Not sure what it's like further north but the last 24 hrs here have been VERY humid indeed, this is before we've imported the real hot and juicy air that will hopefully bring widespread thunderstorms.

Today is our first notable flying ant day - I know other areas have already had theirs.

Looking forward to the build up and the "will it won't it" scenario that will inevitably unfold 

Flying ants on a rampage here and flys!! The house is full of them have fly tapes up to try and stop the buggers!!! Leave any kind of food un covered and in minutes they are on it!  I do have horse fields at the back of the garden and farm land close by with guinea pigs its a haven for them

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted (edited)

Actually saw one 'that shalt not be named' on the ground the other day. No thunder forecast so it must be an old wives tale:hi:

Edited by Dami
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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted
12 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Flying ants on a rampage here and flys!! The house is full of them have fly tapes up to try and stop the buggers!!! Leave any kind of food un covered and in minutes they are on it!  I do have horse fields at the back of the garden and farm land close by with guinea pigs its a haven for them

They swarmed a week or two ago here, at it again! Must mean a severe MCS supercellular US-style outbreak is on the way....

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted
58 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Got 100 percent storm chance Tuesday night:rofl:

get you.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Permission to get a little bit more excited now (and I'm usually one of the more conservative) 

IMG_1215.PNG

IMG_1216.PNG

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Thunderstruck Community Regular

Thunderstruck

Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
Posted

Wednesday storm risk just reduced from 85% to 62%. Must say I'm not feeling it for this potential, and can see it being too far west, but still a couple of days out yet...

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tomp456 Seasoned

tomp456

Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
Posted

The humidity is almost unbearable . 

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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted
Just now, tomp456 said:

The humidity is almost unbearable . 

I was thinking it feels more humid now that earlier.

DP of 18.1°C here.

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LightningLover Accomplished

LightningLover

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
Posted
Just now, tomp456 said:

The humidity is almost unbearable . 

Agreed. Lets hope this translates into something worthwhile.

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tomp456 Seasoned

tomp456

Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
Posted
7 minutes ago, Jcweather said:

Wednesday storm risk just reduced from 85% to 62%. Must say I'm not feeling it for this potential, and can see it being too far west, but still a couple of days out yet...

I wouldn't take any notice of the will it thunder folly, I haven't had storms when it was over 80%, and did get one when it was at 0% 

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Just had a light shower albeit with very large raindrops

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TJS1998Tom Seasoned

TJS1998Tom

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

I really hope us here in Skellingthorpe, Lincoln gets something. I'd be happy if we even just got a lightning display from the edges of a storm. We had a few good rumbles and flashes earlier this month but we havent had a proper one on top of us for a fair while. But I feel we'll get the edge of whatever may come again. The only positive signs is that the latest GFS run edges the storm risk slightly further towards NE including precipitation. But I suppose we'll soon find out  

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Luke Best Enthusiast

Luke Best

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Meanwhile, on holiday in Greece...

It started overhead but kicked off on the mainland - just the most amazing lightshow, huge forks coming down all over the place!  Still going on in the distance - can still see forks coming down well inland in the Peloponnese. 

Good luck back in Blighty this week folks.

God how I wish I had the money to spend my summers chasing these hot weather beasts in the Mediterranean - what a life that would be!

Screenshot_20170716-223810.png

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Day 3 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 18 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 19 Jul 2017

ISSUED 20:12 UTC Sun 16 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Negatively-tilted Atlantic trough will slowly approach from the west on Tuesday - on its forward side, advection of a high WBPT airmass will occur from Biscay/France into southern Britain. This, combined with falling heights aloft, will aid destabilisation of the mid-levels through isentropic lift. 

Current thinking is initial attention will be over SW England and Channel Islands, where a few elevated thunderstorms will either develop over or drift towards from midday Tuesday and through the afternoon hours. By Tuesday evening, a broken line of scattered elevated thunderstorms may develop farther east over some southern counties of England, drifting generally north through the night - though some uncertainty as to how far east this line may extend. A further cluster of scattered elevated thunderstorms could develop over parts of the Republic of Ireland overnight as increased forcing arrives from the west, these also drifting north with time. 

There naturally continues to be some uncertainty as to the exact track, coverage and timing, and this is very much depending on the phasing of the upper trough with the plume. Given the magnitude of CAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates, lightning will likely be very frequent where thunderstorms do occur. Some large hail could also be possible from the most potent cells.

It is quite likely that the areas currently highlighted will change - including upgrading portions of the existing SLGT(s) to MDT - as confidence improves nearer the event.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-18

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Day 4 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 19 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 20 Jul 2017

ISSUED 20:47 UTC Sun 16 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

... MORNING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ...

Scattered elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of this forecast period, mainly over the north Midlands / north Wales and perhaps also extending across the Irish Sea to Northern Ireland. Through Wednesday morning these should continue to move northwards into southern Scotland by midday, but probably with a decaying trend since the main axis of instability by these latitudes will have shifted east to the North Sea. Nonetheless, some lightning will still be possible across Scotland, but probably not as active as areas farther south earlier in the morning.

... AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ...

Attention then turns to the warm sector where warm, moist low level airmass will reside and subject to strong heating should sufficient breaks develop in any cloud cover. Surface troughing and low-level wind convergence beneath the upper trough, combined with diurnal heating, may allow isolated surface-based thunderstorms to develop, which would be capable of large hail and localised flash flooding - the focus for these being primarily in a zone from the West Country - Midlands - E England. In general, would prefer better shear but an upgrade to SVR may be possible here - though very much dependent on if any surface-based convection can develop on Wednesday afternoon / early evening. Eastern portions of the Republic of Ireland could also see on or two heavy showers / thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon / early evening.

... KENT CLIPPER LATE EVENING ...

There is also scope for thunderstorms over northern France to graze the extreme SE corner late evening on Wednesday night (nearer 22-00z).

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-19

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Couldn't have picked a better week off from work plenty of storm risk for many areas for Tuesday and Wednesday!

Interesting!

Also means I can chase at any time which is a bonus.

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