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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Brighton , East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and showery airflows
  • Location: Brighton , East Sussex
2 hours ago, LightningLover said:

85% chance of thunderstorms between 01:00-04:00 on Wednesday!! (Fishbourne, IOW). :yahoo:

 

2 hours ago, LightningLover said:

85% chance of thunderstorms between 01:00-04:00 on Wednesday!! (Fishbourne, IOW). :yahoo:

 

2 hours ago, LightningLover said:

85% chance of thunderstorms between 01:00-04:00 on Wednesday!! (Fishbourne, IOW). :yahoo:

 

2 hours ago, LightningLover said:

85% chance of thunderstorms between 01:00-04:00 on Wednesday!! (Fishbourne, IOW). :yahoo:

I really hope u get lucky on IOW and it doesn't head for Hastings in your absence on the sods law rule...Na seriously its looking good all along the coast...Hope its one we'll all be talking about for some time!!

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Just now, Jules777 said:

 

 

 

I really hope u get lucky on IOW and it doesn't head for Hastings in your absence on the sods law rule...Na seriously its looking good all along the coast...Hope its one we'll all be talking about for some time!!

Just to clarify,is that an 85% chance of storms in Fishbourne ??

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton , East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and showery airflows
  • Location: Brighton , East Sussex
5 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Just to clarify,is that an 85% chance of storms in Fishbourne ??

cant work my own pc..dont know why that's come out so many times...

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
3 hours ago, LightningLover said:

85% chance of thunderstorms between 01:00-04:00 on Wednesday!! (Fishbourne, IOW). :yahoo:

Just in case anyone still don't know it yet ;-)

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

My forecast can't work out how many lightning symbols it wants to give me, started off as four then two then none then back to one and now I have two. NOt bad going considering i'm right at the other end of the risk area.

Even more annoying is my risk is constant between 4am and 7am. 

It aint gonna happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
56 minutes ago, Jules777 said:

 

 

 

I really hope u get lucky on IOW and it doesn't head for Hastings in your absence on the sods law rule...Na seriously its looking good all along the coast...Hope its one we'll all be talking about for some time!!

That exactly happened last year when I went to the IOW. We got none where we were (despite being in the center of the warning zone), and hastings got a narrow, MCS-like line of storms, which traveled all the way to Margate...it was the worst. (And when i got back, everyone was talking about it!) 

Thunderstorm Holiday Frustration (2016).png

Edited by LightningLover
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton , East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and showery airflows
  • Location: Brighton , East Sussex
2 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

That exactly happened last year when I went to the IOW. We got none where we were (despite being in the center of the warning zone), and hastings got a narrow, MCS-like line of storms, which traveled all the way out into the north sea...it was the worst. (And when i got back, everyone was talking about it!) 

Thunderstorm Holiday Frustration (2016).png

That's cruel.Fingers crossed this time..lol

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
16 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

That exactly happened last year when I went to the IOW. We got none where we were (despite being in the center of the warning zone), and hastings got a narrow, MCS-like line of storms, which traveled all the way to Margate...it was the worst. (And when i got back, everyone was talking about it!) 

Thunderstorm Holiday Frustration (2016).png

My home town(eB) missed out too. But then again I had to go to wales last year and Beddy had the most amazing storms. So I was a little peeved.

Edited by Dami
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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
1 minute ago, Dami said:

My home town missed out too. But then again I had to go to wales last year and Beddy had the most amazing storms. So I was a little peeved.

That's one benefit from being in the central southern counties, the difference in distance between the westest areas of Cornwall and the most eastern ones like Kent is basically half - so on occasions like this I'm not too worried about last minute model adjustments.

Hopefully I won't need to travel very far - but I'm definately not letting this one get away - if indeed it does happen!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

GFS aside, quite a few of the higher resolution models are moving the worst of it further West.

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Posted
  • Location: Southampton
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and thunderstorms, snow in winter
  • Location: Southampton

Got a horrible feeling I'll be too far east for a change, rather than too far west. Always seems to be one or the other! Hope some of us at least get a humdinger though!

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

12Z has little change still going to plan for Tuesday night into Wednesday!

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

A repeat of May 27th would be nice! Although we had very little rain we had constant frequent lightning for a solid 2 hours

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
21 minutes ago, TropicThunder said:

Got a horrible feeling I'll be too far east for a change, rather than too far west. Always seems to be one or the other! Hope some of us at least get a humdinger though!

If this is true I guess I am at risk of missing the most of it as well then as I am far south of Wiltshire, which is kind of centre between the east and west just like you.

It doesn't have to be overhead for me to be happy though, as long as its within 10 miles of my location then it counts as thundery activity for our area as thats the distance where thunder can be heard.

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
1 minute ago, tomp456 said:

Here's my take on the midweek action 

 

storms.thumb.jpg.12989f3b9176a24ad82381acf03723cf.jpg

Yeah!:rofl:

Possible case of storms dying a death as they cross the channel scenario there, how many of those have we had?

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Well the plume forecast for Tuesday night has been showing for around 5 days now and has been consistent which is worrying as I can't remember the last time the models correctly forecast a plume!

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Looks like storm risk for Tuesday night into Wednesday has pushed slightly northwards a bit. Hopefully it continues like this so our area can at least (hopefully) see some form of lightning display in the distance

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
11 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

If this is true I guess I am at risk of missing the most of it as well then as I am far south of Wiltshire, which is kind of centre between the east and west just like you.

It doesn't have to be overhead for me to be happy though, as long as its within 10 miles of my location then it counts as thundery activity for our area as thats the distance where thunder can be heard.

I'm hoping it edges east wards just so us in Lincoln are in with a chance lol : P It sort of looks that way atm from the 12z

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

My thoughts are that eastern areas, certainly north-eastern areas, will fair better on Wednesday than Tuesday night. For my area the current thinking would be that storms would arrive for morning rush hour, which is the time when storms notoriously weaken somewhat, clearing through the mid morning before stronger storms develop through the middle of the day. This leaves the problem of will overnight storms leave a legacy of cloud to scupper the chances around here. Time will tell I guess, no doubt the forecast areas will have changed by the time we get to Tuesday.

Currently though, for those living in favoured areas (whereabouts is still open to question) or those willing to travel, it looks like Tuesday night could offer some fantastic lightning displays. As you might guess I am willing to travel if needs must, but I will be making that decision on Tuesday itself.

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Posted
  • Location: Southampton
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and thunderstorms, snow in winter
  • Location: Southampton
36 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

If this is true I guess I am at risk of missing the most of it as well then as I am far south of Wiltshire, which is kind of centre between the east and west just like you.

It doesn't have to be overhead for me to be happy though, as long as its within 10 miles of my location then it counts as thundery activity for our area as thats the distance where thunder can be heard.

I think being that bit further west gives you a better chance, but these things are so unpredictable so who knows, as usual a case of radar watching. 

A distant light show is nice but I have seen several of those the last few years, including 'that' Bournemouth storm, it would be nice to have one of these go overhead for once!

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