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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Brighton , East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and showery airflows
  • Location: Brighton , East Sussex
5 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Well just like many times in the past, the forecasts are looking good for thundery weather and I am getting hopeful and excited thinking that it will actually happen.

But based on the amount of failed events so far, it would be quite a miracle for this to actually develop intense storms, so I must remember to keep myself from getting excited too much as it isn't good for my health when the possible disappointment occurs.

Know that feeling too well,but this time with so many models in agreement my heart is pumping with anticipation even though it's prepared for a bust.Again.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL

Nothing wrong to be prepared for the worst, then if you get something it will be a very nice surprise :)

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

Quite frankly I hope it isn't another Kent clipper, I found the strobe lightning and constant thunder of the one on the 31st of may quite distressing to be honest. While I was also quite mesmorised, I think one a year is quite enough. We've already had two, the other one slightly less active but louder.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Quite frankly I hope it isn't another Kent clipper, I found the strobe lightning and constant thunder of the one on the 31st of may quite distressing to be honest. While I was also quite mesmorised, I think one a year is quite enough. We've already had two, the other one slightly less active but louder.

Only one storm a year??

Well you're living in the right country for that :laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
6 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Only one storm a year??

Well you're living in the right country for that :laugh:

Thunder storms are fine, normally, it's just that specific MCS that I wouldn't want to see too often. The gust front blew down my fence to boot. If I could make out the clouds I bet the role cloud in front was better than the one a few years back.

Edited by alexisj9
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Now this I would like to see (too far in advance of course so its very unlikely to happen) If it was to happen though I'd be right under the precipitation where storms would likely occur

STORM 28.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I dunno what to make of it thus far. The medium range showing scope for some pretty hefty rainfall on Tuesday night..

596aa9d6be9e6_viewimage(2).thumb.png.e801a13218d53abe4f94946dbb857975.png 596aa9d933d9a_viewimage(1).thumb.png.5bb76244236448e811efd5a5689c7996.png viewimage.thumb.png.639a4008a7c9828ca6a9d7cf2e906e91.png

PVA Vortmax lobe (700hPa VV chart) in the Southwest, high PWAT - all indicative of torrential downpours.

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Posted
  • Location: oxford, uk
  • Location: oxford, uk
51 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Only one storm a year??

Well you're living in the right country for that :laugh:

storm events in the uk up were far more frequent up until around 2013, if i recall correctly - at least in the last 10 years or so.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

I do get a feeling in my tired, storm-starved bones that Tuesday is gonna be the big day this year for our area - and I'll definately be chasing (so assuming already that this won't be a total bust).

What we need now is some clarification on location and timings - which should be available by tonight.

Next step is to work out where to head. I'm prepared to drive as far as Devon, but ideally if it moves up from the west in a more direct NE track like a couple of years ago (the night of that big Poole special) then I'm thinking of intercepting it down near Basingstoke and heading up to Richmond / Kew for a good view.

As it's all still a little vague I'll keep my options open - but I hope everyone's enjoying the anticipation... :-)

And remember - UK storms are unpredictable and can pop up anywhere, so be prepared!

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

The risk of storms still hasn't gone away for Tues night into Wednesday. The fax charts are showing the surface trough moving up from the South as you can see off the Southwest coast at 1200hrs Tues and by 0000hrs Weds it is lying across England and Wales.

1.thumb.png.9d70630f133be244992be3b279c5a89a.png 2.thumb.png.22ac5eabf51ee158a5cf472a5c15d03a.png

The Netwx-mr model is showing some heavy rainfall moving up as well and this matches quite well with the positioning on the fax charts. I wouldn't take this precipitation chart literally but it gives an idea. Also, when comparing this to the fax charts, I would expect a little movement eastwards.

3.thumb.png.d9ebd8fda5815fc42694e74006e5664d.png

Whether this will be thunderstorms or bog standard rain I will leave to the more knowledgeable to provide the more technical convective charts, :D but it looks quite promising for now!

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Looks a lot like the 27th May at the moment but, plenty of time for change so still not getting my hopes up.

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

If anything the risk has increased a bit again for us here in the lowlands for Wednesday afternoon...........................

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I have a feeling us here in Lincoln will miss out again this time, though BBC weather still hints heavy rain from 4am which could be thundery 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

85% chance of thunderstorms between 01:00-04:00 on Wednesday!! (Fishbourne, IOW). :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester

hey all

SRH still looking strong Tuesday night across the s coast, with some decent deep shear - my guess at the moment is storms moving in between the IOW and Plymouth - will be good to see nearer the time where we think, I quite fancy a Netweather meet up on the south coast. Anyone for a swim before it kicks off ?? 

:) Samos

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11 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I dunno what to make of it thus far. The medium range showing scope for some pretty hefty rainfall on Tuesday night..

596aa9d6be9e6_viewimage(2).thumb.png.e801a13218d53abe4f94946dbb857975.png 596aa9d933d9a_viewimage(1).thumb.png.5bb76244236448e811efd5a5689c7996.png viewimage.thumb.png.639a4008a7c9828ca6a9d7cf2e906e91.png

PVA Vortmax lobe (700hPa VV chart) in the Southwest, high PWAT - all indicative of torrential downpours.

And potentially  up here at least convective murk infill :nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Horrible feeling that the SE is going to bake and SW up through NW England going to get the Storms Tuesday into Wednesday. Then wednesday maybe some home growns around the usual suspects of Oxford up through East Midlands and NE England. The SE really is appalling for storms in recent years.

If I was chasing would head towards between Southampton and Plymouth for Tuesday Night.

Good call for a meet up Sam

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
45 minutes ago, samadamsuk said:

hey all

SRH still looking strong Tuesday night across the s coast, with some decent deep shear - my guess at the moment is storms moving in between the IOW and Plymouth - will be good to see nearer the time where we think, I quite fancy a Netweather meet up on the south coast. Anyone for a swim before it kicks off ?? 

:) Samos

i'll pm you later Sam, only 20 miles from you

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4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Horrible feeling that the SE is going to bake and SW up through NW England going to get the Storms Tuesday into Wednesday. Then wednesday maybe some home growns around the usual suspects of Oxford up through East Midlands and NE England. The SE really is appalling for storms in recent years.

If I was chasing would head towards between Southampton and Plymouth for Tuesday Night.

Good call for a meet up Sam

That is unusual for SE ,I've had nothing up here apart from wet fart rumbles ,one can live in hope with li -4 and 950 joules In my location 

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

Well its looking pretty good for our general area at the moment and I have seen quite a few forecasts emphasising on the intense amount of lightning there could be.:)

Just hope this period goes in our favour and doesn't suddenly shift in the coming forecasts like in the past few occasions.

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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester
6 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

i'll pm you later Sam, only 20 miles from you

good plan :)

Samos

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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells
  • Location: Cirencester
13 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Horrible feeling that the SE is going to bake and SW up through NW England going to get the Storms Tuesday into Wednesday. Then wednesday maybe some home growns around the usual suspects of Oxford up through East Midlands and NE England. The SE really is appalling for storms in recent years.

If I was chasing would head towards between Southampton and Plymouth for Tuesday Night.

Good call for a meet up Sam

Be good if you can make it Paul - not quite the states I know!

 

Samos

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
17 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Horrible feeling that the SE is going to bake and SW up through NW England going to get the Storms Tuesday into Wednesday. Then wednesday maybe some home growns around the usual suspects of Oxford up through East Midlands and NE England. The SE really is appalling for storms in recent years.

If I was chasing would head towards between Southampton and Plymouth for Tuesday Night.

Good call for a meet up Sam

Selfishly speaking that'd be nice, especially as my location was in that gap around Lyme Bay on the May 27th storms:
596b5800926dd_lightningmaps27thMaythunderstorms.thumb.png.8fa9fb79e05ec5a6e6cd59c2158ee7ba.png

Although I am sort of worrying it may be further east a bit more like the ECM 00z, GFS continues to look slightly different/further west to me.. but really it's not worth me getting too hung up on the models yet, just wait and see

Edited by Evening thunder
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Posted
  • Location: Greenford
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Heat + Thunder Winter: Cold
  • Location: Greenford

Hi guys. Does anyone know if London will catch a storm this week? :D

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