Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

[Windblade]

On 11/07/2017 at 18:17, TJS1998Tom said:

Latest model updates are hinting a long spell of hot weather at the end of the month, 12z showing temps from 26-29 degrees lasting a good 7 days, Hopefully this will be our next chance of a proper thundery breakdown

Oh god I really hope not. I really despise the hot weather  (I don't mind it being pleasantly warm, but not boiling, unbearably, sticky hot like it has been last week). I welcome storms that don't need the incredible heat and humidity we seem to get in the south east to flourish, plus we seem to get the heat for the longest and are always the hottest place in the country, but rarely get anything to show for it in the way of storms (in my area at least).

Edited July 13, 2017 by Windblade

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

38 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Oh god I really hope not. I really despise the hot weather  (I don't mind it being pleasantly warm, but not boiling, unbearably, sticky hot like it has been last week). I welcome storms that don't need the incredible heat and humidity we seem to get in the south east to flourish, plus we seem to get the heat for the longest and are always the hottest place in the country, but rarely get anything to show for it in the way of storms (in my area at least).

Maybe this time it will be different?

[Mokidugway]

4 hours ago, Windblade said:

Oh god I really hope not. I really despise the hot weather  (I don't mind it being pleasantly warm, but not boiling, unbearably, sticky hot like it has been last week). I welcome storms that don't need the incredible heat and humidity we seem to get in the south east to flourish, plus we seem to get the heat for the longest and are always the hottest place in the country, but rarely get anything to show for it in the way of storms (in my area at least).

I'd swap you your summer,at least you get one 

[The PIT]

Next Tuesday into Wednesday night looks good for the south and south east and no doubt just heavy rain for us overnight into Wednesday.

[LightningLover]

I'm in the IOW next week, it would be great if we could get some storms! (And i may not be able to post much from Monday-Friday).

[Stuart]

after the storm risk good for next Wednesday   and Thursday here on the 6z run it all when down the pan hope the GFS wrong or  it poor storm season  

Edited July 13, 2017 by Stuart

[Sparkiee storm]

WOW, look at these juicy looking beauties 

[tomp456]

1 hour ago, Sparkiee storm said:

WOW, look at these juicy looking beauties 

We all know the only accurate parts of those maps are in France

[SenlacJack]

2 hours ago, Sparkiee storm said:

WOW, look at these juicy looking beauties 

A highly respected contributor on another weather website has also commented on this potential. Obviously a long way out yet but perhaps worth keeping an eye on ?

Edited July 13, 2017 by SenlacJack

[SenlacJack]

9 hours ago, Windblade said:

Oh god I really hope not. I really despise the hot weather  (I don't mind it being pleasantly warm, but not boiling, unbearably, sticky hot like it has been last week). I welcome storms that don't need the incredible heat and humidity we seem to get in the south east to flourish, plus we seem to get the heat for the longest and are always the hottest place in the country, but rarely get anything to show for it in the way of storms (in my area at least).

I must admit as I get older I find extremes of heat and cold more difficult to cope with but in reality how many days of 'unusually hot weather' do we get a year here in the UK ? Even down here in the south east I would think it rarely exceeds 10-20 days a year. Surely we can cope with that ?

Think of poor old Moki and his like up north......

 

5 hours ago, Mokidugway said:

I'd swap you your summer,at least you get one 

 

[Arnie Pie]

On 10/07/2017 at 20:39, Mokidugway said:

Some nice convective action around brum earlier this afternoons as I thundered past on train .

Yer......the only time the words "thundered" and "Brum" have been seen in a sentence this season

[Sparkiee storm]

3 hours ago, tomp456 said:

We all know the only accurate parts of those maps are in France

haha certainly yeah, but looks like more potential than previous outbreaks for the parts of England and Wales this time me thinks, but obviously too far off yet  

[Sparkiee storm]

2 hours ago, SenlacJack said:

A highly respected contributor on another weather website has also commented on this potential. Obviously a long way out yet but perhaps worth keeping an eye on ?

Yep, defiantly worth keeping an eyes on this one I think, I know storms wont affect every part of those charts where they are showing potential but still is a very large area of potential for now  

Edited July 13, 2017 by Sparkiee storm

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 hours ago, LightningLover said:

I'm in the IOW next week, it would be great if we could get some storms! (And i may not be able to post much from Monday-Friday).

Looks like a good place to be - especially if you're there for a week. Best potential seems to be mid-week - but we'll see if that changes.

Evening / night storms too... 

[TJS1998Tom]

This would be great for next week, might be a sign for a good overnight thunderstorm, but no doubt as ever my area will miss out by a couple of miles with this chart showing the movements turning east towards Boston

[Julian 777]

15 hours ago, LightningLover said:

I'm in the IOW next week, it would be great if we could get some storms! (And i may not be able to post much from Monday-Friday).

Good luck for next week...If things develop along the lines that models are suggesting (oh that word if) you should be rewarded on IOW. as should most of us storm starved Kent clipped victims in Southern Coastal Counties..Stay optimistic!!

[Chris K]

Next week (specifically Tues night/Weds) still looking quite interesting in terms of potential storm development. Storms are modelled to break out across much of the South and move Northwards/.

My only concern is that this seems like a repeating pattern we are in, with the associated tendency for the Jet and steering winds to be underestimated due to the nature of the synoptic setup. Although we do at times see things actually move back West, I would expect an eastward push is likely due to the Low pressure system edging in more quickly than originally modeled and on a more NE path. Something more akin to the ECM perhaps.?

[Dami]

9 hours ago, TJS1998Tom said:

This would be great for next week, might be a sign for a good overnight thunderstorm, but no doubt as ever my area will miss out by a couple of miles with this chart showing the movements turning east towards Boston

Nice charts for me. 

[alexisj9]

Heavy shower just came through here, skies look like there's more about too. No thunder though.

[Robbie Garrett]

16 hours ago, Sparkiee storm said:

WOW, look at these juicy looking beauties 

As long as I am on the ground - I am happy  Due to fly GOT-LHR-DUB-LHR that day

[NUT]

The hints about something thundery next week are still on looks like

[Harry]

Not allowing myself to carried away just yet - 5 days is a bit a large window for variation for me.

Encouraged though by the consistency over the past couple of days - not very much in the way of variation between model runs, unlike previous plume periods this year where 00z to 06z to 12z to 18z have looked substantially different. 

The wind charts show clearly the thundery low developing over NW Spain as a cut off low Monday evening, drifting into the BoB before arriving across our shores around 21z-00z Tuesday/Wednesday. What will be interesting is what that fires across Spain/France/BoB as this will undoubtedly have a big impact on UK fortunes. The veering winds around the low will also help negate reliance on the jet (which at this time is non-existent across W Europe).

I am hopeful we will end up with something like we experienced 3/4 July 

 

 

Edited July 14, 2017 by Harry

[Sparkiee storm]

 

4 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:

As long as I am on the ground - I am happy  Due to fly GOT-LHR-DUB-LHR that day

Oh, hope your trip is a safe one.

Edited July 14, 2017 by Sparkiee storm

[Sparkiee storm]

06z but very interesting  

but don't worry south east, your time was before it moved north. 

Edited July 14, 2017 by Sparkiee storm

[Robbie Garrett]

10 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

 

Oh, hope your trip is a safe one.

I clear the airport at 1455, so hopefully so.  I don't fancy flying through CB's and abeam TSRA's as it makes you feel sick!